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*CotW: The Last Red Line Post Ever* *CotW: The Last Red Line Post Ever*

08-18-2010 , 12:03 PM
I didnt know that term and i was so naive to spent some time to search the answer /1level up in forum structure. At least i learned something ) LOL at me.

I found couple of COTW articles on some blog, thats why i asked. I didnt wanted to steal anything just make free knowlege even more free for ppl that cant read it in english.

Forget my previous post and have a nice day.
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08-18-2010 , 12:08 PM
COTW are intellectual properties of the OP, If you want to use it in another site, you need their permissions, individually.
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09-21-2010 , 12:27 PM
Read through this COTW again today. Amazingly written, and hopefully this bump will allow some other new people to learn from it. Excellent COTW, sir.
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09-22-2010 , 04:34 PM
excuse my impertinence, but i don't want this post to be the last post ever about this topic..
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11-23-2010 , 11:46 PM
Necrophilia is allowed with COTW right

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge

OK, so how do we improve our blind play by 8bb/100 orbits?

For most people, the answer is to fold more. Here is my graph for when I cold call from the blinds:



And here is the same information from my position reports page:



Now take a look at this cold calling stat:



Please note that the number of cold calls went down, and the win rate went up. This is a dirt simple adjustment: I went to my holecards report, found a few hands that I was calling from the blinds and then losing more than if I had just folded them, and I deselected them in the hole cards tab. I found 83 cold calls that had cost me -$470, and I deleted them. If I had folded these hands, I would have only lost about $120. Thus, I can improve my results by $350 by folding these hands rather than calling with them. This makes perfect sense, if you choose the right hands. If I defend my BB with JTs, most of the time I am losing by check/folding the flop. I take a 3.0-3.5bb loss every time I check fold. Once I realize I can't defend profitably with JTs, I take my 1 bb loss per hand, yielding a 2bb improvement in my red line.
I'm having trouble understanding what the graphs and tables here are telling me.

You are break even when you cold call then do not get to showdown. How is that a leak?

Also, I'm mystified by the two tables. Is the second one after you removed some hands from your CC range?

Also, you can make your blind CC WR go up by tightening but this comes at the expense of losing more in hands folded PF, right?

The point is to be more profitable in the blinds overall, not to improve the cold calling graph.

I'm sure you know what you are saying and that it is correct but I too dense to get it.

Perhaps the first and second tables are overall blind results before and after removing some hands from your CC range.

I guess the point is you looked for some real stinkers (hands) in your CC range, removed those and saw a big improvement?
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11-24-2010 , 05:01 AM
Yeah, the point I was making with the stuff you quoted was to find the stinkers in your cold calling range and to fold them preflop. For the purposes of reducing the size of this leak, a "stinker," is any hand that your long term winrate is worse than if you had folded (so -1bb/hand from the BB, -.5bb/hand from the SB, and -.75 if you look at both blinds together).
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11-24-2010 , 11:52 AM
Thanks. I remember those principles from the "defending the blinds" cotw (or what ever it was titled).

need I say "awesome cotw"? Perhaps I should also declare that I see the sun has risen today
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11-24-2010 , 02:31 PM


looking at this again ... what is confusing for the dense reader (moi) is that the graph above for CC from the blinds has a
  1. righteous blue line
  2. flat redline
which appears to contradict the claim that cold calling is a problem.

I only mention this in case you ever decide to go back and edit the article some more...

Now that I "get it", perhaps it is best if it is left as is
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11-24-2010 , 06:47 PM
I think you have an unstated assumption operating that the graph is supposed to be showing a leak. It's not. It is just there as a graphical representation of my performance cold calling from the blinds. The difference in the two tables is where the "leak" is exposed--by removing the unprofitable hands from the cold calling range.

I know you get it now, but I guess it is worth pointing out for anybody else that is confused.
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11-30-2010 , 12:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
II.Some Other Red Line Leaks:


IV. Red line analysis.

I said at the outset that I would analyze red line-related stats and graphs ITT. The requirements for posting a stat or graph are that you have read this post, run the filters described herein, and still have a question relating to them. If you meet these requirements and want to post a red line related question, please do so. I will delete any questions that evidence a failure to have either read this post or to have run the filters I listed.
Hello Sir.

I have read your posts several times and have done my homework with the filters as you suggest before requesting your help. It relates to my stats this month after having played 30K hand of NL5 FR. I am playing cash since mid September, I played MTTs for more than two years and I must say that my approach to cash has been nitty, my stats @NL2 are 5/4/3.8. I have been trying to gradually open my ranges after moving to NL5 in November.

The fact is that my red line loses equal my blue line winnings. One leak that was immediatelly found is that I am calling too many 3-Bets, next month I will work in this. Also I am stealing only 17% from the SB, I will try to improve here too.

Where I have doubts is in my game in the blinds.

I reviewed those hands where I cold called in the blinds; as in your case I have some marginal winnings as shown here:



Following your method I removed some hole cards and got this slightly improved report:



I use to cold call against a properly stacked aggresive player but the issue here is that most of the time I am essentially playing a fit or fold game here and almost every time it doesn't fit I lose my post.

Maybe this is not a "red line" question, but I really need some advice here.
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12-24-2010 , 03:02 AM
Forgive me im still new to posting, but ill try and get everything i can in this post...

Right so...ive played just over 100K hands at 25NL and this is my graph (for all hands)

http://img64.imageshack.us/i/graphnsdw.jpg/

SDW sky high, and NSDW rock bottom. I am "somewhat" aware of redline loses, and i have tried to fix them...if you look closely, there are spots where my redline flattens out and my green line shoots up huge. my problem is...how do i keep this consistent? my sessions seem to be very "swingy" as well, i find myself usually up 3 buys or down 3. could this be because of my playing style? If there are any other stats you would like to know please ask...VPIP/pfr%/3bet/ flopcbet/turncbet/ is...

16.0/11.5/2.8/51.8/56.4

I ran the filter to see if i am a "quality" c-betor....my results for this were for flop were as follows...
Flop+Turn cbet win rate

http://img156.imageshack.us/i/turncbetwinrate2p2.jpg/

(Flop cbet winrate was 320bb/100)

This is my PFR=true, Flop-cbet made = false, saw flop=true graph

http://img824.imageshack.us/i/2ndpos...truegraph.jpg/

Dont really know what to make of it...im still not 100% sure on how to analyze graphs and stats...hence why im beginning to post here. Im not sure if i am missing any information, if so, i will post asap when asked for. Any input and comments on this is appreciated, i want to get out of 25NL asap and move up into 50NL soon

Thanks
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12-24-2010 , 03:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by justfoldpleaseok
Forgive me im still new to posting, but ill try and get everything i can in this post...

Right so...ive played just over 100K hands at 25NL and this is my graph (for all hands)

http://img64.imageshack.us/i/graphnsdw.jpg/

...
There is a "stats (& graph) analysis thread". I think your questions would be better there. This thread is (IMO) more for discussion of the original CotW article and related discussion.

Welcome to 2p2 forums!
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12-24-2010 , 03:24 AM
thanks will take a look
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12-24-2010 , 05:47 AM
What's going on if my red line is positive/slopes up, and my blue line is negative?
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12-25-2010 , 05:22 AM
question:

When filtering to see if your are a quality c-bettor, do you filter all hands just for "un-opened" or do you do all? ie; sb/bb/ep/co/btn/unopn?

thanks
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12-29-2010 , 02:37 AM
Was lookin in to c-betting leaks and with the filters my stuff ended up like this

My flop cbet is 83%

Turn cbet is 45%

Flop cbet sucess 53%

Turn cbet sucess 37%

Filter in HEM: PFR=true, Flop C-Bet made = true. Was +275bb/100

Filter in HEM: PFR=true, Flop C-Bet made = true, C-bet turn made = True Was +830bb/100

Filter in HEM: PFR=true, Flop C-Bet made = true, Saw turn = True, C-bet turn = false Was -312bb/100

Was wonder what glaring leaks I can get from this? Any glaring leaks?

I am guessing flop cbet to high and turn cbet is to low?

Thanks for any help
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12-29-2010 , 01:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by donkey xote
What's going on if my red line is positive/slopes up, and my blue line is negative?
Without looking at ur stats, proably means you love bluffing way too much (Unless your a winner)
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12-29-2010 , 03:44 PM
Thank you for this great post.
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12-29-2010 , 04:20 PM
great post, thx for the info, but I couldnt find what "average/standard" blind losses were

-44bb/100 combined blind wr, is that good/bad/avg?

thx
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12-29-2010 , 04:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hopeuntilwecant
great post, thx for the info, but I couldnt find what "average/standard" blind losses were

-44bb/100 combined blind wr, is that good/bad/avg?

thx
-60bb/100 (-30PTBB/100) as an aggregate loss rate from the blinds is the standard aiming point

(unless this randomly changed over the last few months)
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12-29-2010 , 04:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by *Split*
-60bb/100 (-30PTBB/100) as an aggregate loss rate from the blinds is the standard aiming point

(unless this randomly changed over the last few months)
is that combined? And would that factor in the common(I think) belief that at the micros, we really shouldn't be worrying too much about blind defense?
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12-29-2010 , 05:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stry67
is that combined? And would that factor in the common(I think) belief that at the micros, we really shouldn't be worrying too much about blind defense?
that is combined (aggregate), yes

i mean...keeping your blind loss rate manageable is always important.
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12-29-2010 , 05:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by *Split*
that is combined (aggregate), yes

i mean...keeping your blind loss rate manageable is always important.
Would you then say blind defense at say 10NL shouldn't be as aggressive as 50? This is be a point of thought for me recently because recently at 10, my blind defense has been getting raped cuz I always seem to run into villain's range top.
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12-29-2010 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stry67
Would you then say blind defense at say 10NL shouldn't be as aggressive as 50? This is be a point of thought for me recently because recently at 10, my blind defense has been getting raped cuz I always seem to run into villain's range top.
there is more to the blind loss rate than aggressive restealing. for instance, free plays from the blinds, ISO ranges from the blinds, SB opensteals, flatting steals, etc. ppl get too carried away with thinking that the blind loss rates are totally based on restealing...

PS. yes i know i am being vague and not answering your question to the T. I'm just trying to point you in the right direction so you can go do some work on your own =)
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12-29-2010 , 05:11 PM
I always thought -17bb/100 is an okay aggregate?
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