Not sure if Mpethy still reads this but I've got a question regarding this part:

If you are a quality c-bettor, your stats will look like this:

Filter in HEM: PFR=true, Flop C-Bet made = true.

Depending on how proficient you are, you will see a win rate of about 250bb/100 to 450bb/100.

Add the filter C-bet turn = True. Your win rate should increase to about 400bb/100 to about 600bb/100.

If my winrate in this spot is substantially higher over a large sample does this imply that I'm not cbetting the turn enough?

good stuffffff

Exactly what i was looking for, thanks!

The cold call stats in those first few posts seem exceptionally tight ... am I missing something. I CC about 6% and even that feels tight.

bump

Mpethy do you still help out us noobs with red line analysis, if so I have it all written in my pad but ill write something easier to read on here if you are, either way thanks for the article have some points to get me started already.

Hello all, I know it's the end of 2015 and this thread is like 5 years old, but since it's fantastic I would like to also contribute.

From my own observations it is almost impossible to be a decently winning player with a nosediving redline. It's fine if it is like -3 to -5 bb/100, but -10 bb/100 or worse drags your winnings down so much, that I can't imagine a scenario in which your SD winnings could really make up for that. Please notice that I am referring to NL50 and NL100 mostly, however super negative redline on micros can't be good either, although here we can let it be a bit worse (since our winnings will come mostly from SD blueline).

Another observation (just my observation / empirical data, take it for what it's worth) - the WWSF stat.
Typical TAG/nitty players tend to have it around 45%. I was in that group as well. It's hard to be a winning player, if you win only 45% of pots in which you VPIPed. The higher the stakes, the more true this statement is. Ok ok I know there are probably some exceptions, but like I said - these are my observations only.
Guys who tend to have an okay redline / are solid winning players tend to have WWSF at around 48-52%, which makes a perfect sense - whenever they participate in a pot, they know how to win. They scoop lots of small pots, they defend blinds well and they know how to bluff.

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Few leaks that I noticed in my own game, you can run those filters for you as well:

1. Opening ranges
Look for the very bottom, like 55-22, A6s-A2s, KQo, AJo, etc. I personally found AJo and KQo being unprofitable for me from EP. Seriously, watch out for those - one unnecessary open with such hand, then you make an unsuccessful double barrel and your EP winrate goes to hell. These things add up.


2. Cold call from the blinds - especially from SB
Already discussed, but pay special attention to SB. I wouldn't call for the vast majority of the time, unless it's a steal from CO (BB will be less likely to squeeze) for 2.0 or 2.5 bbs (3.0 bbs is quite a lot). The rest of SB calling should close to non-existent. The only cases should be very well selected, like:
- multiway pots and set mining / calling Axs / other strong hands
- fish in the pot
- or just having super reads


I am not going to cover whole blind play in here, but I will just left you with a hint: BTN/CO have a big advantage over you, which is position. Try to negate it.


2a. BB call vs SB steal
We are in position, we have good pot odds - looks like a great encouragement for a wide calling range. Be careful, I made tons of very loose calls and paid badly for those mistakes. Run this filter for yourself to check if you're doing fine (Position: BB, Facing Preflop Action: 1 Raiser, Position of Raiser: SB, Did Cold Call = True)


3. Check if your stealing ranges are profitable


Another example will be for BTN. Say your default stealing range looks like this:


But sometimes you go with a wider stealing (for example any two, because blinds are nits) -> check if the hands besides your original range are profitable = select inverted range.
- is the winrate positive? If yes that's great. If not...well you're probably too wide / steal too often / spew postflop.




Similar pattern for MP opening.
- select MP position
- action: Unopened
- Cards: Select All and now deselect your EP range = just check only those additional ones. For example you open 77+ from EP and 22+ from MP, so here 22-66 are additional hands which we are looking for


4. 3-betting light from the blinds
Also already covered, just a quick recap.
- Position: SB, BB
- Action pre: 1 Raiser
--- His position: EP, MP, CO, BTN (CO and BTN especially)
- Cards: Everything but { AQ+, TT+ } or { AK, JJ+ }


See if there are some unneccesary hands that should have been folded pre. Or maybe poor c-betting strategy, which is likely to be the case - but again, it's a whole different topic.



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My additions to your great summary about utilizing poker advantages:

- Value betting thinly
a) You are on the river. You know he has nothing/weak hand, but you have a monster. No reason to bomb it. Bet like few bbs. Spazz equity may be just an additional bonus

b) You are on the river. You have a mediocre hand, typical check back. However, if you pay a lot of attention to your opponent actions and you are able to hand read him well - then whenever you know he has even weaker hand, bet those few bbs, 1/3, 1/4, 1/5 or 1/10. Be prepared for fancy x/r. Lots of these moves in Grindcore's "The Thin Redline" vids.

It adds up.
Really it does. What's your average session length in hands, 1000 hands? You think you can squeeze those additional 10 bbs? (bet 4 bb in one river spot, bet 6 bb in another one). It is worth 1 bb/100. I am not sure if you will notice the difference in your overall winrate, but your filter winrates are like 20-50 bb/100, sometimes 100-200 bb/100 and here a bump of several bbs/100 should be more visible.


I wouldn't necessarily say there is such thing as initiative. Initiative suggests that we have some kind of magical advantage which forces our opponents to check to us and respect our bets. Well, donk betting is fully allowed. I would rename it to: having an uncapped (unlimited) range vs our opponents' capped range = our range should be usually stronger on average board texture (of course it depends on our opening and their cold calling ranges).


Once again thanks for your great post.

Incredibly in depth and well done. Still active here?

Thanks for this thread.