I don't think you do.

Yeah, but include the times we get it in bad as well. So 100 times we get in AA vs 98s, and 20 times we get in 98s vs AA.

Now which is going to happen more often (not $$ value or EV, but raw frequency): we suck out or we get sucked out on?

your argument is based on what is emotionally expected versus mathematically expected. Because we its hard for us to comprehend partial occurrences. When we get AA in versus KK preflop and win people don't think "Man I am lucky to win $100 since I was only expecting to win $81" .

Peoples expectations are inherently unreasonable. This is why we are such POW.

Edit:
Need to address your actual question: The chance a "variance" will happen more (outside of expectation), is when we get it in bad with 97s, since the sample size is smaller the beta is bigger and more likely for a 3*std to be present.

Edit2:
Clarifing point: Since the 80 hands sample is bigger, it is statistically more probable for it to be closer to the EV, BUT if we are looking at 10 hand periods, there is more higher probablity that for a 10 hand sample in the 80 that there was a 3*std occurrence, but for the OVERALL 80 hands, its should be closer to the EV, than the 20 hand sample which has the higher likelihood for it to be 3*std off.

Yes, we lose 19 times with AA while only winning 4 times with 98s. However, that has nothing to do with variance.

With a bell curve distribution, we are just as likely to lose 15 times with AA as we are to lose 23 times. We consider it "justice" when we only lose 15 times and "running bad" when we lose 23 times.

In reality, nobody can measure the true variance. You can have AA a regular amount of time, but if your opponents have nothing and fold before and after you raise, your variance has been negative without you measuring it. Best to just ignore it and focus on making the best decision possible each time.

Math is idiotic.

The best way to get through a downswing or a rough stretch is to increase volume, IMO.

You just had a bad session/day/week/month/year and you need to regroup. Your confidence is waning. You have checked your stats and nothing "seems" out of whack. You just need to regroup and get your groove on..... but where is your groove? What made you a winner last month that seems to have fallen between the cracks?

Write your own personal book strategy book.

The King's bible... I still haven't got around to it.

Edit:

You can also ship a donkament for 8k, it helps

nice post OP

Yup, to me, it's like learning to lay down pocket aces. Once you get in volume, you get less attached to a single hand since you know it will come up time and time again. Same thing with bad beats and rough patches. You just have to go through them and survive them. Over and over. We all know it's part of the game, but that's not really entrenched. I know it isn't in me. I am unhappy to end a session down a BI. But going through these stretches is the best way to learn to deal with it.

Masterpiece, thanx a lot

This is awesome OP Thankyou!!!

In case you are wondering why all the bumps for cotw threads. 2+2 is about to update the forum software and will be archiving all threads that have not been active since last February. Since the COTW threads are invaluable I am going back through cotw threads from 20009. Trying to do it all in one go during the night to lessen annoyance of taking up space in the unl forum.

"Following up on the BRM concept, I strongly STRONGLY believe in a stop loss. A stop loss is the amount of buyins you can lose, and if you do hit that number then you end your session (personally I use a stop loss of 3 because I’m a variance-sissy)."

Sometimes i make my schedule so i play 6 hours poker that day , and in 1 hour i lose 3 buy ins. If i would stop and not play that day i would waste too much time , isn't it better to play slightly worse than not playing at all?