Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Micro Stakes Full Ring Discussion of up to .25/.50 online no-limit pot-limit Texas hold'em full ring games, situations and strategies

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-31-2010, 10:06 PM   #1
*Split*
See my coaching listing
 
*Split*'s Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: making videos
Posts: 9,438
COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

Configuring Our Poker HUD


A HUD is a very helpful tool that is unique to online poker v live poker. It helps us visualize real-time data about our opponents. Poker is a game of information, and the more we have, the better we should be able to play. Using a HUD is something you should heavily consider, assuming you are not using one already. But information is useless unless you understand how to utilize it, so this COTW will be all about the HUD stats you can consider using and how to use them better.

(Keep in mind that this post will be more about the HUD stats that I use. We can spout out stats all day that are useful, but at the end of the day, there is limited space for stats, and we should use the stats that we are most used to and understand their usage and implementation. It should also be noted that a HUD is personal. Different player types will use different stats. I tend to LAG and you will notice lots of my stats revolve around knowing how often a player is going to fold to a play that I make. If you play TAG, you may want to consider stats that revolve around how often your opponent will call with worse hands. Experiment with stats that work well for you and use the information that allows you to optimize your time at the tables.)


Basics:


VPIP:

This is one of the most important stats. It tells us how often our opponents are putting money into the pot voluntarily (so posting the blind and never putting another cent into the pot that hand does not count as vpip). I personally color-code this stat so I can quickly see if someone is playing too many hands, too few, and get a quick idea on their player type.

PFR:

This stat goes hand-in-hand with VPIP (and is also color-coded). It tells us how often this player is raising preflop. This stat should be taken in consideration with VPIP. A 15% PFR might seem high, but there is a massive difference in player type between a 17/15 and a 72/15. This stat can also be heavily tied with ATS.

AF (or AFq):

This section is saved for Mpethy. I do not use either of these stats, so he is the man to talk to for them. (read post 23)

ATS:

A player's attempt to steal is very important for us. It gives us an immediate idea of the player's positional awareness which is invaluable to us. So a player might be 16/13 with an ATS of 35%, and another 16/13 with an ATS of 15%. The player with the ATS of 15% is not very positionally aware, and doesn't weight hands played from LP the same way the higher 35% ATS player would. So it helps us frame lots of information, everything from their 3B range to their open raise range from MP2. Also remember that ATS is relative to a player's VPIP and PFR.

ATS is very useful in that it can help us build our 3b range. Say they steal, have a high ATS and a high Foldv3B, then we can mathematically go into Poker Stove, do some O-Range v Cont-Range calculations, and figure out an optimal 3B range, size, and frequency.

3B:

This stat tells us how often a player 3 bets preflop. This stat can help us frame a players range and frequency when they 3B, but can also help us plan out whether or not we steal or make a certain play preflop (like 4b/fold/flat). Make sure to check positional stats on 3B's, as many players are tight 3B'rs in EP/MP, but have large 3B ranges from the button and blinds (usually due to their high resteal %s).

CB:

Knowing how often a player CB's the flop is very important to us. If a player has a high CB, say 80%+, then we know that they will often times fire a flop CB regardless of their hand value. If a player has a low CB, say 40%, and they fire a flop CB, we can assume they probably have a stronger hand value. Remember, hand values are relative, so take everything with a huge grain of salt like always.

We can sometimes use CB to help us plan hands preflop. And we can also use their CB stat, coupled with their flop action, to make better players. Say a 14/8 CB: 55% raises UTG, and we call OTB with 22 and see a HU flop. The flop is Js 6c 5h, and he checks to us. Well his CB% makes us think he would only CB his strong hands, and thus his check is weak. So we can fire a bet here and expect him to fold a large % of the time, folding out the logical AK/77/88/99/TT part of his range.

Hands:

Another very important stat. We always want to take sample size into consideration. If we have 500 hands on someone, then we can assume their stats are more “real” than someone with only 30 hands. I consider 200 hands a starting sample, 500 a decent sample size, and 1K+ a great sample size. But also remember that people do change their styles. So I only show stats from the last 3months for players. Old stats are useless if they were 11/7 but now play 16/14.


Intermediate:


FoldvCB:

This is a very helpful stat for us. If we know that a player is folding a ton of CB's, then we would want to CB our air almost always, regardless of texture, because they have a tendency to just fold outright. If we know that a player has a low FoldvCB, say 35%, then we would want to VB them like a fiend, and either consider not CB-ing or throwing multiple barrels as a bluff. You can also use “CallflopCB” if you want, but that doesn't take into consideration how often they raise CB's, and my style is based around folds in the first place, so I use FoldvCB.

Foldv3B:

For players that resteal a lot, this stat is a must. It tells us how often this player folds when facing a 3B. This could mean that they open raised, or even that they through-called and got 3B. If I am ever going to consider a resteal, I want to check how often this player steals and then I can do some simple O-Range vs. Cont-Range calculations to see if I can make an outright profitable 3B. As the game continues to mature, expect this number to constantly get smaller. Having an 80% Foldv3B used to be standard, but now a days, most good stealers are keeping their Foldv3B down around 65%.

You can use this stat for many uses. If you are considering a squeeze, you can look a the Foldv3B of the original raiser and the through-callers. You can consider this for bluffing. You can also consider this for VB 3B sizing. If you know someone has a Foldv3B of 15%, and that they are constantly calling 3B's regardless, then when you 3B AA you should consider using a larger size for some extra outright value. Also remember this is relative to open raise. It is pretty standard to see a 10/8 with a Foldv3B of 40%. Well that is because his O-range is so inherently strong that he is not often releasing hands when you 3B him.

FoldvTurnCB:

This lets us know how often our opponents are folding in spots that we raise preflop, CB flop, and fire the turn again. This is useful both when we are bluffing (taking advantage of light floaters with heavy turn continuance ranges) or VB-ing (taking advantage of players that rarely release a pair as the pot continues to grow). Again, you can also use “CallvTurnCB” if you are a TAG and considering going for multiple barrels with like KQ on a Qxxx board.

WTSD:

A stat I don't personally keep on my HUD, but it certainly has usage. If you see someone has a very high WTSD, then you know that they are rarely releasing single pair hands, and they tend to get very sticky with hands they deem valuable. Make sure to keep VPIP in mind when considering this stat. A 12/10 that has a WTSD of 25% is not even close to the person playing 60/5 with a WTSD of 25%. The 12/10 has an inherently stronger range when he plays pots, and thus will show them down. The 60/5 has an inherently weaker range, yet still gets to SD a decent amount, and thus with weaker hand values.

W$@SD:

Another stat I don't personally use in real-time. This stat tells us how often they win money when they get to showdown. This is helpful for knowing how often they are getting to SD with weak vs. strong hands. This stat should be looked at with WTSD in mind. If you see an 18/12 with a WTSD: 16% and W$@SD: 60%, then you know they are getting to SD only with the strongest hands, and usually releasing marginal stuff somewhere along the line. But if you see a 42/17 with a WTSD: 34% and W$@SD: 41%, then you should consider only VB-ing this person, and occasionally consider a “light”VB.


Advanced:


Blind Specific Fold & Resteal:

I am just starting to use these more often in my own game, and they are super helpful as the game becomes more aggressive in terms of stealing and restealing. I keep both the SB resteal&foldvsteal and the BB resteal&foldvsteal up now. I don't need to keep “callvsteal” up because 100-resteal-foldvsteal = callvsteal...and again, my HUD real estate is too precious to waste on things I can calculate myself in .2 seconds. Keeping both of these stats up help me know who I should be stealing from, who I might consider avoiding, and who I need to have a plan and balanced 4B range against. It also keeps me from having to go to the pop up and waste time that might portray “I am checking your stats to consider light 4B-ing you, so just one sec while I look at some more things please.”

FoldvFlopCR:

Certainly an important stat for those that fight for pots. I always like to know if someone is only continuing with the toppest part of their range when I CR them. If they are, then I can certainly consider bluff CR-ing their CB.

This is also useful when I flop big hands. Say I flop a set but their FoldvFlopCR is 85%. Then I probably don't want to CR them as they will fold too often. So maybe I consider a check/call flop and donk turn. Or consider a check/call flop and CR turn. Again, a line change that I never would have considered optimally unless I had the information available.

RiverCallWin%:

I love this stat. It lets me know how often they win when they call the river. Now I can't just use this as a stand alone stat, but I can take it into consideration of the entire hand. If I take the donk line (bet flop/check turn/bet river), and know they have a very low RiverCallWin%, then I can consider maybe betting a pinch more when I am VB-ing. I also know not to bluff the rivers against this person because they will station it often.

I can certainly use this stat with things like WTSD and W$@SD. If I know they are going to SD a ton, and their RiverCallWin% is very low, then I can consider VB-ing them to death. If their RiverCallWin% is high though, I can usually infer that they are only getting to SD with the strongest of hands. So that player is unlikely to pay off a VB with a wide range of hands.


Pop Up:


As you get stronger with stats and your sample sizes begin to build on certain players, you can start using your pop up to get more detailed information on your opponents. The things I check the most often:

EP PFR:

If I see someone is a 15/12 and they raise UTG, I don't really get a great idea on their range from there. I can assume it is tight, but there is a huge difference in my play if a player has a 5% raise from UTG vs. a 11% raise from UTG. The pop up can give me a more detailed look at their “exact” range from each position. A tighter EP PFR tends to imply they have the strongest of hands and there are more IO against their range. A wider EP PFR tends to imply they have a wider range that might not offer as much in IO, and thus calling might be less ideal.




MP PFR:

Same concept as above

3B% By Position:

If a player is 14/12 and has a 3b: 3% I might not be able to draw too much from that. But if I see that person has an EP3B: 0%, MP3B: 1%, LP3B: 5% and Blinds3B: 7%, I can start to get an idea on how they are 3B-ing in general. So if this person 3B's my steals, I can see they are probably doing it with a wider range more often than not, and can consider either 4B-ing or floating due to having more information.

3B + CB:

I don't keep this stat on my normal HUD, but will habitually check my pop up (even before I decide to flat a 3B) to plan out whether or not I am floating lots of flops, especially with mediocre pairs. If someone is 3B-ing wide, and not CB-ing often, then I know I can float more liberally and stab when they check to me. If someone is 3B-ing wide and CB-ing like 100%, then I know I can float and raise lots of CB's when I miss. Again, more information just helps me make better plays.

Call Open Raise:

This is a stat I am considering putting on my HUD. This helps me put someone on a more specified range when they call my open raises. If I see their COR is 5% then I know they are really only calling my open raises with pairs (22-QQ). If it is bigger, then I can see they are calling wider and wider (going from SC's, to BBs, etc)


Correlation:

Stats can be useful on their own, but if we look at stats coupled with other stats, we can get a more valid image and more correct idea of a player. This section will look at stat correlation that I use to get a better idea of ranges, player types, and also frame a plan of action for a hand.

VPIP & PFR Gap:

I do not use AF/AFq as I have found very little usage for it in my player profiling experience. But, I get a good idea of aggression based on this gap. Say we have a player who is 15/X. If that player has relatively small gap, then I can assume that player is more aggressive. They understand open raising as opposed to open limping...they probably CB more as a result, and are probably more positionally aware. But, if that player has a larger relative gap, then I can generally assume more passivity. The player will open limp more, cold call more, and be more fit-or-fold postflop. This gap takes FR momentum theory into consideration, and has a tendency to put you on the right track for stereotyping.

But also note that I have used the word “relatively” quite a bit. Say we have two players. A 12/10 and a 42/10. Both have a PFR of 10, but they are both very different player types given the width in gap. We can also use it from a “how far is the gap” POV. Say we have a 14/10 (with a 4 point gap) and then someone who is 24/18 (a 6 point gap). Well we don't just want to say the 14/10 is more aggressive because his gap is closer together...because in the relative sense, the 24/18 is going to be much more aggressive in general.

ATS & 3B:

Let's take a look at two different players. One is 15/12 with an ATS: 35% and 3b: 4%. The other is a 15/12 with an ATS: 16% and 3b: 4%. Both have the same VPIP/PFR/3B%, but we notice that their ATS differ significantly. So what can we infer from this?

Well we can assume that the player with the higher ATS is more positionally aware. They understand playing lots of hands from LP v EP, and they steal as an effect of that understanding. But, we see they have the same 3B%, so why do we care?


Well we care because each of these players would be 3B-ing for entirely different reasons. Say it folds to us OTB, we steal with T9s, and the BB 3B's us. If he is the 15/12/35/4, then he is doing so because he understands you are stealing, and is thus restealing. If the 15/12/16/4 3B's you, it is not as likely that he is restealing. He is 3B-ing because he feels his hand is strong enough to 3B you. So his range is going to be de-polarized, and the 15/12/35/4 is going be fairly polarized more often than not. This means you can approach them both differently in respect to your 4b/flat/fold game.




ATS/Blind Specific Resteal & Foldv3B:

I personally love this one as it makes my preflop life a breeze in aggressive positional situations. Now, it may seem like a pain to look at so much at once, but it gets easier the more you do it. This correlation often times gives me an idea on their Foldv4B. We cannot really use the natural Foldv4B stat because we often times don't have a very large sample size on how a player reacts to 4B's, esp 4B's in a specific situation.

So I like to use ATS and Blind Specific Resteal to see how often they will be aggressive and resteal my steal. If they have a high ATS and Resteal, then we know they are positionally aware and understand aggressive 3B-ing a steal. Now, say we have a player who is 17/15 ATS: 42% SBresteal: 9% Fv3B: 72%. I steal with 44 OTB, he 3B's and it folds back to us. I know from his ATS that he is positionally aware and understands what I am doing. His SBresteal tells me that he understands restealing and is most likely doing this with a polarized range given the range he is using and he is OOP. And his Foldv3B is over 70%, telling me he is selective with the hands he continues with as the pot sizes gets large.


We can estimate from all of this that his 3B range is nice and wide, very bottom-side polarized, and that he will fold to a 4B more often than not. There is usually a strong correlation between Foldv3B and Foldv4B, and couple that with the width of his natural resteal range, a 4B can be a very profitable play here (as a flat call is meh in current game conditions). From here, it just becomes a simple O-Range vs. Cont-Range calculation to select the optimal size/frequency/hand range.


Limp/Call & FoldvCB:

I love using this combination of stats for isolating players. If I see a player has a Limp/Call of 80% and a FoldvCB of 80%, then you can be damn sure that I am going to isolate them with ATC. I will probably even size my raise larger because I know they are going to call a ton preflop and give it up a ton postflop. This is just printing money, and I like printing money.

We can also use this for other player types. Say someone has a Limp/Call of 72% and a FoldvCB of 45%, then I know they are calling a lot preflop, but not always just going to roll over to the CB. So I need not only change my thoughts on sizing preflop, but also change my hand range because I can no longer just rely on getting a fold on the flop a ton. Again, we can make better plays, everything from size/plan/hand range given information gleaned from stat correlation.

FoldvCB & FoldvTurnCB:

Being I play a very aggressive style, these stats together make postflop play much easier. The correlation between these two stats can make line planning, even from preflop, 90x easier. Say we have a player who has a FoldvCB: 40% and a FoldvTurnCB: 90%. This means this player has a tendency to float CB's liberally, but only continue onwards from the turn with the strongest of their hands. This would be the type of person I would liberally double barrel as a bluff, but rarely double barrel with a TP type hand.

We can also use this when considering value lines. Say we open raise with 77 and a 20/10 3b: 2% FoldvCB: 76% FoldvTurnCB: 33% calls in position and we see a flop of J73. We CB and he calls. The turn comes a 3 and it is our action. We know that he folds to CB's a decent amount, so when he continues, he does so with a hand that he deems as fairly strong. But we also see that once he calls the CB, he tends not to fold to double barrels. So we can make a largely sized value double barrel, say 85%PSB, in order to max value all the way down. If he had a FoldvTurnCB of 75% then I might make a smaller bet to encourage a wider part of his range to continue, or even go for a CR instead. Again, take lines that are based on more than just his VPIP and PFR.


Conclusion:


When playing, consider using stats that work well for you, and also consider how the stats interrelate so we can make more optimal decisions. Lots of these correlations I have written about I have noticed through my own post-sessions analysis of players. They are all fairly logical, and I'm sure there are hundreds that I have yet to find. Always be looking to see how you can use different stats to come up with better lines (in sizing/planning/our hand range) while playing.

Hopefully this helps a ton for those of you new to stats and HUDs. This should be a great starter point getting you away from the default HUDs. Again, poker is a game of information, so get information and process it as best as possible to make life easier and more profitable. If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to ask. And if you have your own correlations that you use, please share =)

Cliffnotes:


HUDs are good
Pick stats that work well in your own playstyle
Certain stats correlate heavily with other stats that can give us great amounts of information
Explore stat correlation on your own to find things that work for you
Enjoy and good luck!

*SS*

Last edited by *Split*; 05-28-2012 at 11:51 AM.
*Split* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2010, 10:42 PM   #2
saleens281sc
adept
 
saleens281sc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,141
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

** First ** LOVE IT... editing my HUD right now. I'll throw a critique in first thing tomorrow.

Last edited by saleens281sc; 01-31-2010 at 10:43 PM. Reason: Dumb
saleens281sc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2010, 11:17 PM   #3
phebous
adept
 
phebous's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Running Free
Posts: 794
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

2nd... reading now
phebous is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2010, 11:28 PM   #4
xxGREMLYNxx
adept
 
xxGREMLYNxx's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: 50NL
Posts: 737
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

About time someone made a thread like this about HUD! awsome post split, ive read some other HUD threads but honestly taken little away from them apart from the individual stats... you explained the correlation between stats so clear and simple i didnt have to read it more than once to understand it. Changing my HUD right now!
xxGREMLYNxx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 12:10 AM   #5
syracuse44
adept
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: omaha,NE
Posts: 824
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

yes very nice post. now i have somthing to give the noobs with there stats questions. thx
syracuse44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 02:52 AM   #6
wupwup
grinder
 
wupwup's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 489
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

Split, could you perhaps let us know how many months of data you use when playing?
I've recently asked this question but got no answers so far: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...stakes-697462/
wupwup is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 02:58 AM   #7
OoLethaLoO
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
OoLethaLoO's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: not up in here
Posts: 6,851
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

awesome post. im surprised i dont have the FoldvFlopCR on my HUD, as i tend to make that play a lot. im gonna put it there now.
OoLethaLoO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 03:25 AM   #8
*Split*
See my coaching listing
 
*Split*'s Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: making videos
Posts: 9,438
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

Quote:
Originally Posted by wupwup View Post
Split, could you perhaps let us know how many months of data you use when playing?
I've recently asked this question but got no answers so far: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...stakes-697462/
depends on how I'm feeling. But my usual is 3 months. Though I will sometimes play with lifetime data
*Split* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 03:26 AM   #9
*Split*
See my coaching listing
 
*Split*'s Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: making videos
Posts: 9,438
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

glad you all are enjoying it and getting some use out of it =)
*Split* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 04:29 AM   #10
Jabba021
veteran
 
Jabba021's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Melbourne, Australia.
Posts: 3,074
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

Wow, this is amazing. VNH SPLIT TYVM! ***INSERT INTENSE CLAPPING GUY HERE***

Favourites,
Add to favourites
=true.
Jabba021 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 06:50 AM   #11
DonkDonkDonkDonk
a man of culture
 
DonkDonkDonkDonk's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 34,191
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

Great post as always split!
DonkDonkDonkDonk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 07:25 AM   #12
DDAWD
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 6,866
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

Split, from your section on correlations...

"Say it folds to us OTB, we steal with T9s, and the BB 3B's us. If he is the 15/12/35/4, then he is doing so because he understands you are stealing, and is thus restealing. If the 15/12/16/4 3B's you, it is not as likely that he is restealing. He is 3B-ing because he feels his hand is strong enough to 3B you. So his range is going to be de-polarized, and the 15/12/35/4 is going be fairly polarized more often than not. This means you can approach them both differently in respect to your 4b/flat/fold game."

I don't understand why 15/12/35/4 3b is more polarized than the 15/12/16/4 3b. If the first guy is more likely to be restealing while the second is just playing his card strength, doesn't that mean the first guy has a wider range while the second guy is polarized to the top of his range?
DDAWD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 07:29 AM   #13
wmermus
adept
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Bluffing with a call
Posts: 1,081
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

Great staff, especially, on correlations between different stats and how to apply it.

I have heard about great online players who do not use HUD, but only notes. Do you know of any system these players are using? Any ideas on pros and cons vs HUD?
wmermus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 10:10 AM   #14
kevsaled3e
adept
 
kevsaled3e's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 730
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

BONERxCORE

I'm going to enjoy reading this. Sickkk tings split.

WP
kevsaled3e is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 11:04 AM   #15
rwh53
adept
 
rwh53's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: LIFE is RIGGED
Posts: 753
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

TYVM, I started using a HUD 3 months ago and spent a lot of time digging through archives and threads assembling my HUD.

There is still a ton of great info here, I think HOW TO INTERPRET data is something I'm still working on. Your reads on this are educational.

I understand when many of you are 10-12 tabling you are crunched for space, but I only 3-4 table and I use as much info as I can, with as many pop-ups as I can.

REGARDING LIMP/CALL %

I find it useful to also know HOW OFTEN villain limps. Some of that can be inferred from VPIP/PFR but if players limp ahead of me and I have AA, I want to raise as much as I think will get called:

Consider the difference between:
Villain 1 18/11/2.0 Limp% 5 L/C% 35%
Range - 22-66, Small to Medium Suited Aces, QJs+ KQ+
Villain 2 44/8/0.7 Limp% 50 L/C% 65%
Range - ATC
Villain 3 8/4/4.0 Limp% 2 L/C% 70%.
Range - basically set-mining, LDO.

If I think villains will call more I raise more, they think, "Why would he raise 7-10BB++ w/ AA?" Caro said, "Strong means weak" "I call"
rwh53 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 11:36 AM   #16
ChicagoAlex
journeyman
 
ChicagoAlex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Eventus stultorum magister.
Posts: 271
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

Wow. Sick COTW.

Also, your HUD looks very smooth. Pleasing to the eye, definitely beneficial.
ChicagoAlex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 11:58 AM   #17
PokerRon247
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
PokerRon247's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Running up a mountain
Posts: 10,750
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

Great post as always Split, but if you don't mind I'd like to elaborate a little on this...

Quote:
Originally Posted by *Split* View Post
Hands:

Another very important stat. We always want to take sample size into consideration. If we have 500 hands on someone, then we can assume their stats are more “real” than someone with only 30 hands. I consider 200 hands a starting sample, 500 a decent sample size, and 1K+ a great sample size. But also remember that people do change their styles. So I only show stats from the last 3months for players. Old stats are useless if they were 11/7 but now play 16/14.
Of course sample size is important, and we will have a much better read on somebody after 1000 hands than after 20 hands. This doesn't however mean that a 20 hands sample is useless, and although we shouldn't be making concrete reads based on such a small sample, we can often gain some kind of information from it.

I find it useful to make generalisations on player type, based on VPIP and PFR, even after as small a sample of 20 or so hands. Although postflop stats are generally more important in the long-term, they do not converge to become useful till much later than the preflop stats, so at this small sample size I concentrate mainly on preflop stats. It is often the case that players will play postflop similar to the way they play preflop, so for example a preflop nit doesn't usually become a postflop maniac, and vice versa, the preflop aggrodonk doesn't suddenly become a nit once they get past the flop. The basic categories I use are....

Nit: If their VPIP is <10 then it can usually be safe to assume that they are probably waiting around for a hand and aren't going to suddenly start bluffing into you.

Decent: If they have fairly standard looking stats then I will assume they're going to be a decent(ish) player until proven otherwise. By standard stats, I mean with a VPIP that is less than say 25-30 and their PFR is close to their VPIP. I will generally put someone in this group if they range from say 10/8 to 30/25. Although if they kept up 30/25 over a large sample they would be considered extremely LAG at fr, I think it's easy for a TAG to run hot for 50 or more hands, and it's more important for these generalisations to consider the closeness between VPIP and PFR, rather than the absolute numbers (as long as they don't go too high), as this gives a better indication of their standard of play.

Passive Fish: This is somebody with a high VPIP and a low PFR, for example if I saw someone playing at 27/5 over 30 hands, I would immediately class them as a passive fish. If they are playing too loose and passive preflop, I would expect them to play similarly postflop and will expect them to call down far too light, so I will widen my value betting range vs them until proven otherwise.

Aggrofish: Our best friends, the aggrodonks play a high VPIP/PFR, anything from 40/20 to 80/50. I think these guys are the easiest to generalise, as not many decent players, even when running hot, would sustain an 80% VPIP. Let these guys take the lead, widen your value calling range and make sure you stack them before anybody else on the table gets a chance to.

These obviously aren't the only player types around, and often the boundaries are fuzzy, but this is just an example of how to start categorising players even though you don't yet have solid reads on them. Some players will suprise you and suddenly change styles, some will subtely change over time, some may be running hot or cold for the first 30 hands, some may be getting their gf to fold every hand while they go for a crap only to come back and unleash the fury on an unsuspecting table of HUDbots.

The main point I am trying to make is that as we are playing a game of imperfect information, then any bit of information we have at our disposal is potentially useful. If we can use a 20 hand sample to help narrow down a hand range, then great, let's use that 20 hand sample, as long as we remember not to take it as the gospel. The better you are at using what little information you have on someone, the better you will fare in the long-run.

Always remember:

Some information is better than no information.
PokerRon247 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 12:45 PM   #18
SaberTJ
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Ancora Imparo
Posts: 3,941
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

Great Post Split. Thanks!
SaberTJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 02:19 PM   #19
mirrari
centurion
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 199
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

wow great effort here. look forward to reading it thoroughly. thanks alot!
mirrari is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 03:06 PM   #20
johnrw
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Illinois, USA
Posts: 66
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

I may be ignorant here, and excuse me if I am, but what are you using for your HUD? I love the look of it.
johnrw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 04:07 PM   #21
FreshMeat
grinder
 
FreshMeat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Roll Up The Rim is rigged!!!
Posts: 479
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

Easily the best COTW yet! it feels like this should be in a text book somewhere.
FreshMeat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 04:28 PM   #22
JulioCalzadilla
banned
 
JulioCalzadilla's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Santa Cruz, Bolivia
Posts: 812
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

nice1
JulioCalzadilla is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 04:34 PM   #23
mpethybridge
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
mpethybridge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 86.4% dead, most likely
Posts: 17,001
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

Aggression Factor: This is the third stat in the holy trinity of stats. It baffles me that many players are not using it these days. In fairness, it can look pretty primitive when you display it next to a stat like "limp/call, f2c-bet" but I still firmly believe that it has a place on every HUD. In fact, the only 3 stats that I use to plan every single hand are vpip/pfr and af. All of the other stats are more situation-specific.

How it is Calculated: Bets + raises/calls=AF. Thus, AF gives you a clear idea of a player's aggressive tendencies.

How to Use AF: Basically, I use it to plan my hand in a general way. So if I find myself on the button with 44 facing a 15/12 with an AF of 3, my plan will be substantially different than if I find myself in that same situation facing a 22/7 with an AF of 1.

An aggression factor of 3 tells me that the player is three times as likely to bet as he is to call. He understands the role of aggression in poker. He is much more comfortable betting money into the pot than he is to be calling off money.

By contrast, somebody with an aggression factor of 1 does not understand poker, and is equally willing to call as to raise. This usually means that he has a tendency to call when behind, and a slight tendency to act passively even with good hands that are ahead, but vulnerable.

So everybody involved has 100bb stacks, I have those pocket 4s I mentioned above, and the flop comes

4 9 K

My plan for this hand is to let my opponent's tendencies dictate how the money goes in. In general, I am going to call the aggressive player for as long as he is willing to put money in the pot. He doesn't make many mistakes by calling too much, so I can only hope to make him make one calling mistake in the hand (and I will be lucky if he makes this one mistake). If this is the case, I want it to be as big a mistake as possible, so I am not going to take the betting lead from him until I have to--either because of board texture or because he slows down or sizes down his betting.

By contrast, when I am facing the passive player, I know that he is a poor player who calls too much (remember, both when he is ahead and when he is behind), so my plan here is to take the betting lead at the earliest opportunity and make him make calling mistakes of a size that I choose.

Similarly, an aggressive player is more capable of betting his air than is a passive player. So If I have those same pocket 4s, and the flop comes down

2 3 J

There is a non-zero chance that I will call down the 15/12/3, but there is no chance whatsoever that I will continue unimproved against the passive player who is betting. On later streets facing a check, I am far more likely to (correctly) assume that a check is a check/fold from the aggressive player, and that it is a check/call planned by the passive player.

All of the above analysis holds true for bluffing as well. Why in the world would I bluff a player whose aggression factor says that the primary mistake he makes is calling too much? I'd much rather bluff a player with a high aggression factor that says, "I like to bet, but I don't like calling bets."

Admittedly, AF is a measure of general tendencies. If you have an infinite sample on a player, then, yeah, you might prefer to look at his specific stat for the specific situation you are in. But we rarely even have a big sample on players, let alone one that has converged in every specific situation. AF really earns its money as a proxy for specific situation stats that have not converged yet. So if you have a small sample of flop c-bet % or fold to turn bet %, AF is the proxy you should be using to plan your post flop lines. It is so useful in this regard that I often forget to check the situation specific stats.

Four other points on AF:

1. I have implied this point, but have not stated it outright: AF, when read in conjunction with VPIP and PFR, defines a player's skill level. Knowing that a player is a 15/12 tells you a lot about his game. But if you then find out his AF is 1.4, you should form quite a different impression of his skill level than if you find out he is a 15/12/3.5

2. AF correlates strongly with win rates. This is really just a proof of the first point. I posted it in both the stats thread and *Split*'s other Hud Stats thread (the one on color coding) but, iirc, players fall into 5 categories:

passive losers: with AF <1.2 or so.
breakeven players: with AF up to around 2.1
small winners: with AF up to 3.4 or so
big winners: AF from 3.5 to something under 5 or so
aggro losers: with AF above 5.

For the exact breakdowns please look this up in the threads I mentioned rather than rely on these guesstimates.

Edit: I looked it up for someone in another thread, here is the post

(lol, the spellcheck approves of guesstimates as a word)

3. AF relates to VPIP: A player who plays 33/22 with an AF of 1 is betting at you with roughly the same hands as a 16/11 player with an AF of 2. But the frequency you are facing a bet will seem far lower, because his wider and weaker range will force him to check and call more often than the stronger range of a 16/11.

4. Use AF cautiously when your sample is small, but use it. I have run whole sessions during which my AF on a table was 0.8, or something absurdly low (my long term AF is 2.3). It can be waaaay off in samples as small as 200 hands. But you can use it by noting specific situations that resulted in the extreme value. For example, the tables that I usually have absurdly low AFs on during a session are where I happened to flop monsters against aggro players (or get coolered calling down QQ v. KK or something). Both of these situations will drive down my AF, but will result in useful notes ("slowplays monsters on dry boards" for example). Similarly, if I get a rush of solid starting hands from EP, my AF will go through the roof. I played a session the other night where, at the end of 200 hands per table, my AF was infinite on 2 of 12 tables. So even in a small sample, extreme AF values will still usually point out player tendencies--you just have to be careful about noting the specific tendency it is identifying (e.g., "slowplays, big hands" rather than "calls down with third pair.")

Aggression Frequency %

I don't use this stat, but I have a fair amount of respect for it. It is basically a significant re-interpretation of Aggression factor. I'm not even going to try to do a better job explaining AFq% than Acevader did in this thread in small stakes a few days ago.

Last edited by mpethybridge; 02-02-2010 at 02:51 AM.
mpethybridge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 05:34 PM   #24
*Split*
See my coaching listing
 
*Split*'s Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: making videos
Posts: 9,438
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

Quote:
Originally Posted by DDAWD View Post
Split, from your section on correlations...

"Say it folds to us OTB, we steal with T9s, and the BB 3B's us. If he is the 15/12/35/4, then he is doing so because he understands you are stealing, and is thus restealing. If the 15/12/16/4 3B's you, it is not as likely that he is restealing. He is 3B-ing because he feels his hand is strong enough to 3B you. So his range is going to be de-polarized, and the 15/12/35/4 is going be fairly polarized more often than not. This means you can approach them both differently in respect to your 4b/flat/fold game."

I don't understand why 15/12/35/4 3b is more polarized than the 15/12/16/4 3b. If the first guy is more likely to be restealing while the second is just playing his card strength, doesn't that mean the first guy has a wider range while the second guy is polarized to the top of his range?
polarized = tips of range. effectively, a nuts/bluff type range

a positionally aware player is usually going to flat a steal with things like JJ or KQ because they are ahead of the logical steal range they are facing, and hands that can play fairly easily. So his 3b range would look like the range in the picture, QQ+/AK/somecrap

The other guy just 3b's because he thinks his hand is strong. So he 3b's the top 4%, rather than a polarized 4%, things like JJ/KQ, etc. so his range is de-polarized (there are no "bluff" hands in this range...just "nuts" type)

same 3B%, different reasons
*Split* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2010, 05:45 PM   #25
johnrw
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Illinois, USA
Posts: 66
Re: COTW: Configuring Our HUD Stats

mpethybridge - Awesome description of aggression factor and how to use it! I've had a good general idea of what it was, but not the best grasp of how to apply it. Now I think that I am definitely incorporating this into my game more.
johnrw is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:17 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2016, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO v2.0.33 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2016 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Copyright ę 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online