Major tl;dr ahead. Just gonna go ahead and post it before I keep adding more stuff to it.

In this thread, we’re going to discuss some of the factors to consider when playing AKo and AKs. Early on, this hand gave me enough trouble to make me want to not even have it in my EP range, because (LDO) playing OOP sucks sometimes. What this OP will hopefully do is give you a rough framework from which to build; it’s near impossible to tell you the exact one way to play AK in every possible scenario, but what I CAN do is explain why AK is a such a great hand.

Without getting too specific about what to do when this type of flop hits vs this type of villain, let’s talk first about why AK > 72. I’m talking about our good friend EQUITY. Equity as you know is the portion of the pot we are mathematically entitled to, or put another way, how often we expect to win at showdown (speaking strictly about pot equity). When we have good equity, we can stay aggressive, both for value when called and to win the pot outright (fold equity) - another way of stating the value of FE is turning a hand with 45% pot equity into 100% equity, some of the time. When we have bad equity, we keep the pot small if we have showdown value or no fold equity, bluff if we have no showdown value and high fold equity. Note than when I mentioned having good equity, never once did I talk about whether or not we had a made hand, only that our chance to win at showdown was high. Let me give a couple examples to illustrate, and from there we can apply the concept to other situations.

Ex. 1 – AKs, two overs + FD vs top pair, in position.

FR
MP - $50
Hero (BTN) - $50

Dealt to Hero AK
3 folds, MP calls $.50, Hero raises to $2, folds, MP calls $1.50
Flop J63 ($4.75)
MP bets $2, Hero?

Pokerstove says we have 53.5% equity. Let’s do the math just to be redundant and prove the point. Assume MP calls a shove 100% of the time on the flop.

MP bets $2, Hero raises to $48 and is all in, MP calls $46 and is all in.

We risk $48 to win $4.75 + $46 (since we can assume he’s calling a shove with top pair and I just want to illustrate the point). We win $50.75 53.5% of the time and lose $48 46.5% of the time.
(50.75)(.535) – (48)(.465) = 27.15 – 22.32 = 4.83

We win $4.83 (or nearly 10 BBs) by shoving and getting all in, even though we don’t have a made hand.

Ok let’s extract from this example and go on to something that might not be so cut and dried (be honest, you were kind of disappointed that I went through all that just to prove that getting all in with better than 50% equity was +EV).

You are IP, ISO a loose passive 17/6 player who limps from MP1 and you are CO. You safely assume he will fold hands that completely miss, bottom pair, and call pretty much everything else for at least one street. Stack sizes the same as before.

Folds, MP1 calls $.50, folds to Hero who raises to $2 because he’s a baller, folds to MP1 who calls $1.50.

Flop T53
MP1 checks, Hero?

Ok what does 17% look like and how much of it calls the flop, based on our read?
I put it into PokerStove, removed a few junk hands and added in all pocket pairs and came up with
{ 99-22, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, AQo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

Based on our read (IMO this pretty accurate how these players play), his continuance range is
{33, 55 – 99, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, T8s, 65s, 54s}
which is a 5% range, or roughly 30% of his overall range. So, he folds 70% of his range. Is making a half pot bet profitable (LDO you should know the answer already, I’m just showing you how to think through it so you can do more difficult hands)?

Pot is $4.75, we bet $2.50.
We win $4.75 70% of the time, lose $2.50 30% of the time.
(4.75)(.7) – (2.5)(.3) = 3.325 - .75 = 2.575

So by itself, making a bet with air is profitable (again, LDO….and with this example, you should note that it doesn’t matter what our hand is, and that ISOing these players with a huge range is going to be wayyyyyy +EV for you).

But what happens when he calls?? Zomg you have to play poker?! Whut fux?!!

MP calls $2.50 (pot $9.75)
Turn Q

MP checks, Hero?

We’ve picked up some extra equity. 4 Js give us the nuts, 8 other hearts give us the nuts (discounting the J) Vs. his flop continuance range, what is our equity?

Holy **** we just gained 11% equity and we still don’t have a hand! We can probably assume that his turn continuance range is not 100% of his flop continuance range; I know these kind of players aren’t really doing any hand reading, but scare cards are called that for a reason. So let’s say any pair that picked up a flush draw, two pair and sets are in his turn continuance range, which looks like {55, 33, QTs, 6h5h, 5h4h}, and is a 1.4% range or 28% of his flop range. So again, he folds the turn 72% of the time and we have 26% equity when called. Let’s go to the math!

Hero bets $6.50 into $9.75.
(9.75)(.72) – (6.5)(.28) = 7.02 – 1.82 = 5.2

Again, betting the turn, by itself, is +EV. We’re not trying to bluff out a calling station, we’re simply using the board texture to our advantage and relying on the fact that we’re never worse than 3 to 1 on the turn. Why is this important? Let’s look at what happens if he check shoves, and see if you still wanna bluff your entire range on the turn.

Hero bets $6.50, MP raises to $45.50 and is all in. Hero?
We need to call $39 in a pot of $45.50 + $6.50 + $9.75 = $61.75. We need to have (39)/(39 + 61.75) = 38% equity to be break even. Our calculations show we have 26.5% equity, so we can’t call a shove. But what happens if he check raises a more realistic amount, like raising to $15? Can we call?

Hero bets $6.50, MP raises to $15.
Pot = $9.75 + $6.50 + $15 = $31.25
Hero needs to call $8.50
(31.25)(.265) – (8.5)(.735) = 8.28 – 7.765 = .515

So it might be thin, but calling shows a positive result. What about shipping over the top now? We would be risking $39 to win $61.75 (if we assume he's never folding).

(61.75)(.265) - (39)(.735) = 16.36 - 28.665 = -12.305

So even though we improved in terms of equity, and there is more money in the middle, it's still not enough to get all in. Hopefully you can see that in situations where we DO have fold equity, or where he c/c the flop and lead the turn and we shove with FE, or if the stacks were different, then you could ship it in profitably, having no made hand, but having great equity.

Why? We are barreling a hand with equity (note how often this word comes up). Compare this with a hand like 22, which has less than 2% equity when villain takes this line, or AKo, which has at best 11% equity. Hopefully all that long and boring process I just took you though made some sense and you really grasped those last lines. It’s going to be HUGE in the next section. But before I move on, let’s recap.

- AK has equity because of direct outs (pair outs) and potential backdoor outs
- Equity is ultimately more important than “Who has the best hand right now?”
- Equity lets you stay aggressive; we usually call it semi-bluffing

Let’s move on to playing 3-bet pots.

Who should you 3-bet? Read greg’s COTW on 3-betting first, but basically, when 3-betting you really need to think about people’s continuance range and how much that makes up their opening range. What you DON’T want to do is 3-bet someone who’s continuance range is only hands that crush you, AND their opening range is small enough that you don’t get enough folds to make 3-betting AK worth it. You know exactly what I’m talking about: the people who 3-bet AK vs a nit, flop top pair, and make a thread when they get shoved on. Here’s a hint: you don’t need to go on robot mode and 3-bet AK every time you have it dealt to you. It’s perfectly fine to flat call, it’s perfectly fine to fold pre. And perfectly fine to 3b, so long as you get enough folds. That’s all I’ll say about that.

So let’s say you’ve correctly 3-bet someone who’s range is wide enough, and they call. What’s the strategy? Well, I think it will largely depend on position, ranges, and stack size. Also consider that when 100bb deep, people become much more attached to overpairs and top pair, so don’t come complaining to me when you double barrel your two overcards and get called down by QQ when the river checks through.

With that said, why is AK a good hand to 3-bet? Yeah you have blockers. It’s tough to get called by worse, pending some awesome history and dynamic. So it’s basically a semibluff vs typical TAGs, a reraise for value vs short stacks who you get it in as crushing or flipping, and a reraise for value vs fish who call with dominated hands. Know your villain.

Let’s take a fantasy hand, in our own made up world where villains call lightly, we’ll call it restealing with AK from the blinds. People don’t really like playing wide ranges OOP to a 3-bet, but they loooooove playing wide ranges IP to a potentially wide range (restealing). So it’s more likely you’ll be playing postflop with AK in a 3b pot AND be OOP, though you should note that you can apply this same thought process and approach to hand analysis if they call OOP (think 'continuance ranges' )

9-handed
Dealt to Hero AK
Folds to BTN who raises to $1.50
Hero (SB) reraises to $5, BTN calls $3.50

First of all, let’s look at a typical TAG stealing range, which is about 33%: {22+,A2s+,K5s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A5o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J 9o+,T9o}.

Of that range, with no crazy IFS-like history, they’re probably calling with TT+/AQ+ as a base. That means they fold a whopping 85% of the time (no need to point out that 3-betting with tons of crap - not just AK - is gonna be hella profitable). What happens when they start calling IP and playing poker? Say they fold half the time. They call with 16% (I did a logical range, not just whatever crap PokerStove defaults as 16%). I'll say some medium pocket pairs with meh SD value, 99 - JJ which have pretty good SD value, QQ+ cuz lol trapaments but sometimes they 4b, some SCs and S1Gs, and KQo and AQo+
{66+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s, AQo+,KQo} Now, let’s see a flop!

Q75
Hero?

Again, you can do the math yourself and see whether or not betting here will show a profit. The point I want to make is that your plan here differs than your plan if you’re 3-betting a POS hand, something like 42o. What’s the difference? With AKs, even when called, you have outs vs most of their range, and you have tons of ways to improve your EQUITY without making a hand. That’s the whole point of this thread.

Special scenarios

You open with AK and get reraised. There will be different opinions on this, but I’m of the camp that says OOP you need to 4b/c or fold, depending on stacks, position, stats, etc, all the stuff you use to hand read.

A SSer opens and you have AK. IMO, unless they’re a nitty SSer over a good sample, it’s hardly ever a bad decision to 3b and get it in pre vs these guys. You have blockers to KK+ yadda yadda yadda, you’re mostly flipping or crushing. Same goes for if you open and they shove. Snap snap 100% unless they’re super nitty.

A nit opens from UTG and we have AK in the blinds. Hey, poker is all about picking profitable spots. I’m not saying this isn’t one of them, but again….don’t come complaining to the forums when you 3b the tightest range of the tightest player and then wanna fold after flopping TPTK.

You think you want to flat call AK. Maybe you want to get some discussion going around this point, but for me, I’ve never really done well with flat calling AK. Look at their range and determine if 3-betting will be profitable. Flat calling forces you to flop a pair, and you get barreled off the best hand a lot.

You open AK UTG and get multiple callers. No bluffage. You flop a pair, make a plan BEFORE YOU BET regarding who you can stack off vs and who you can’t.

You flop a pair (or perceived pair, like on Q74r) on a dry board and get check raised. Keep in mind: ranges, continuance ranges, and your plan for the hand. Vs most opponents, you can’t call a flop check raise with one pair no draw “to reevaluate the turn.” Sure, there are some villains in today’s games that check raise bluff and then give up. Keep in mind though, people are a) not bluffing as much as you’d like to believe, b) turning hands with SD value into razor thin bluffs (like TT on Qxx for example) and c) more likely to call down with worse than to check raise worse. But know your villain.

You whiff in a 3b pot, and the board is not Qxx/Kxx/Axx. c/f if their range is mostly pairs, b/f if they’re calling wider. OR, your plan could go something like this. “Ok the board is super dry (like J62, but I’m prepared to fight for the pot. I’ll make a standard half pot bet, and keep firing if the turn gives me additional outs. I’ll make a decision before I bet the turn whether or not I’m willing to ship any river, based on his continuance range and stack size. Or, I can get it in when my equity is still decent and check shove the turn instead.” The whole plan was made ahead of time and centered around equity, both pot equity and fold equity, and continuance ranges.

In conclusion, playing AK is really just a branch of hand reading, knowing continuance ranges, and knowing the math behind pot equity and fold equity. AK derives its strength from the fact that it can flop a WA/WB hand – where you value bet TPTK relentlessly until they raise – and even when it misses you still have options besides check fold. Though, there are a ton of times when check fold IS the best option for AK (I learned a ton about how different flops connect with different villains from gregs first concept video). The thing I hope you take away from this thread is a framework for how to think through spots that are thinner and our equity edge isn’t so obvious or large.

I would like to end with a quote from bottomset, in a thread I did well over a year ago on why I hated playing AK OOP.

Here’s the thread if you’re interested in checking it out.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...op-unl-212256/

In before greg tells me I'm still a nit.

1st

2nd

Great stuff-some serious thought and effort went into this.

good post buddy

Great stuff.

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posting on 2+2 is just as hard as playing AKo

This article is goooooood.

and iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii helped =)

good article sir

Great post!

Thanks for this post. I've been thinking about AK a lot recently, and reading this has helped me understand the hand a little better.

good read, thanks

good post. Someone told me awhile back that "most of the time" AK has most of its power pre-flop and goes down on each street. Its also the easiest hand to put in your range.

Thanks alot for this article, AK for me is kinda tricky to play but this post made it a bit clearer

I think this is the model for the next series of COTWs along with Greg's 3bet COTW. An in depth study on one particular situation. I almost feel I it should almost be in a separate section with the warning, "If you haven't read and understood the FAQs and standard COTWs, this section will lose you money because you'll misapply it."

Well done.

Great post. I struggled with AK during my first few months playing, but am finally learning how to make AK work for me. Your post helps clarify some of my current thoughts and questions regarding AK play - thank you!

I found the talk about ranges and equity to be extremely helpful with respect to how we should actually be THINKING about things on the felt.

great post

Way too tired to read this after work but I haven't looked this forward to a COTW for a while, and I know it's going to be kickass.

Skimmed through, looks awesome- will finish reading tommorow morning. Thanks for taking the time

I have a really hard time with AK, since the only time I ever flop TPTK its vs a set

very nice thread OP thank you

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Thats a lot of words

AK still = good, right?

the good thing with AK over AA/KK is = if you´re getting c/r or 3bet on the flop/turn/river you can more easily let it go (i can´t fold Aces!!!!!!!)

basically thats why doyle brunson loved to play AK over AA/KK (see his SUSI book)

great post man

Great post

cool stuff. good read