if they are way down the line (like in August or something i might be down to write another one). i dont care which =)

Also, in my personal opinion, i dont think things like investing 101 is so far removed in a bad way from the forum. but i could easily be convinced otherwise though =)

*SS*

i think wealth management is better topic than investing

thats more of where i meant to go with it...yea

Yeah but the best use of a $1k bankroll, for any forum regular, is almost exclusively going to be playing poker with it. Wealth management/investing strategies don't really come into play until BR > $10k or so, and then you're getting into SSNL, not micros.

I, too, could be convinced otherwsie. But I'm not yet.

That's convenient.

Re: Wealth management -1, plenty of good material already out there. This forum should be limited to BR mgt.

Re: Common faults +1, there is a good DC series titled SSNL disease at the moment.

Re: Planning +1, like chess yet no-one at micros seems to think about multi-streets

What about Time management? Too many semi-pro poker players seem to be lazy undisciplined people compared with the highly successful LA and Nolan's. Their skills at playing an individual hand may be close but the real pros excel at disciplined time management. This could cover within a session as well as 24 hour time management, sleep cycles, gf/wife time management...

that will be an interesting one

was playing around some time ago with a statistical approach but wasnt really happier afterwards. one i lacked some statistical key figures to really run tests, and second it provided arguments into both directions.

I'm going to be counting on people like to to share your thoughts and experiences.

the cliffs of the (not yet written) CoTW is that using EV as a proxy for your luck is like the blind men describing the elephant.

Stripping all the luck out of your poker results is pretty much impossible.

It's not just your distribution of starting hands; it's your distribution of starting hands by position. You might look at the last 100 times you were dealt ace-king and find out 64 of them were on the button or the cutoff; that's running hot.

It's your starting hands versus what everyone else is holding. You might run cold by going through a long spell where every time you get dealt rockets, you collect the blinds and never see a flop.

It's your starting hands versus what specific opponents are holding. When you pick up kings, you want the fish picking up jacks, not the supernit that will only pay off one street.

Now and then you might pick up a bunch of money from somebody that's tilting. Mostly luck.

Aggrodonk Deluxe at the table? It's a race to see who makes a top pair hand first and gets all his money. Mostly luck, and a real impact on winrate since you're usually talking about a stack.

Table dynamics will get affected by your extended hot and cold spells of starting hands, and of hitting or missing flops. That's random and pretty much impossible to define statistically.

The list goes on and on and on of the ways poker is affected by luck. All-in EV is a very obvious one, and is useful in its own limited context. But it's very, very possible to be way over all-in EV yet running bad, or way under it but actually be running hot (that has happened to me).

"Luck is more about backbone than wishbone."

Doyle Brunson

LOL that is tilting me like hell, and i really went completely crazy.

i had an AD at a table, he was spewing in total 7bi to all around (most preflop) and i was running completely card dead. beside 3times when i had AK/QQ and he was sitting out because he was rebuying after gotten stacked.

still havent processed it, the other regs were sitting with 500bb stacks on the table.

the whole point of the "EV" is the following, you have 2 samples
- non-all in hands
- all-in hands

the first one makes around 95%, the rest makes 5% of all hands. the winrate is of course hugely different (i had some factor 10 as far as i remeber, easy calculation).

the bigger the sample gets, the more unlikely is a "propability" drift in one direction (in descending order)
xx distribution of hands
xx distribution of hands per positions
xx distribution of "hitting" flop
xx distribution of winnings with non-ai hands
xx distribution of sets on flop
xx distribuion of winnings with ai hands.

the lower you go, the more likely is you are not exactly on the theoretical average, as the sample goes smaller. also, the lower you go, the lower the relative impact on the winrate is. we all know what a big influence sets on the winnings of a session have, you have 1000 hands and no sets looks different than 1000hands with 20% sets; while getting one KK less doesnt have such a huge impact on the session winnings.

and thats where i stopped, because i couldnt manage to really find out how big of the "luck part" the ev part is.

Nice EV/luck post guys but this is the CotW schedule thread.. Save it for the CoTW thread on the topic

Yes, I was the first offender with my blind men and the elephant post. My bad for starting the off topic tangent.

No, it was my fault. Just went off on irrelevance there.

May I perhaps request that everything from that off-topic post on luck I made down be split off into its own thread?

I'm just going to copy your and biker's post verbatim, add my name (plagarism FTW) when I do my CotW. The end.

if you want to do it or have a better person in mind, go ahead.

I wanted to do it, because I need to get motivated to complete all my analysis of NLHE.

No, that's fine. I'd rather not have the pressure, and I'll participate actively in the discussion. I wasn't being sarcastic, I'm just lazy.

Since it is the subject of an upcoming COTW I'd rather not cover the topic thoroughly yet.

Its great stuff though.

By the way, is the 'Using the Overbet' CotW going to get rescheduled? I was looking forward to that one.

I'm super busy this weekend, but Monday or Tuesday I'll put all this discussion together and update the schedule with new topics and authors, and when I do I'll make sure to contact Duke to see if he's ready.

I think we need to take a week to discuss "standard" lines and sizing. I think alot of what was once considered "standard" is now total BS.

^^ that sounds like a very good idea

So like a month and a half ago, my laptop crashes to the point where it can't even get to windows anymore. OS reinstall. All of the HH that I had selected for the overbet COTW disappeared during the reinstall. No idea how to scour HEM for the hands. They're in my HEM, but I don't think there is any sort of option to filter overbets ya know?

So in the month and a half since the reinstall, I found three overbet HH. Looked a bit closer, and one is lolbad, another is against a medium stacked drooler, and the third is just gonna play itself out anyway. So all of the old ones are worthless. I try a few overbets in the most recent month and a half... and they turn out being the absolute worst lines possible. I get zero action. I'm starting to think that a lack of an overbet thread is a good thing.

This was from a couple nights ago. Not even an overbet. Not that exciting of a hand. Turn line not ideal, but I don't mind being results oriented once in a while.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
MP1: $41.50
MP2: $100.00 MP2 posts a big blind ($1)
CO: $140.30
BTN: $128.90
SB: $112.30
BB: $110.40
Hero (UTG): $101.00
UTG+1: $59.95

Pre Flop: ($2.50) Hero is UTG with 6 6
Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, MP2 calls $3, 2 folds, SB raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero calls $3, MP2 calls $3

Flop: ($22.00) 5 5 6 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks

Turn: ($22.00) A (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks

River: ($22.00) Q (3 players)
SB bets $22, Hero raises to $94 all in, MP2 folds, SB calls $72

SB mucks A K

Kurt...I changed myself to the planning COTW rather than the default lines one. if this is an issue let me know...but i have had a cool idea in my head for the planning one for quite some time

just lemme know

Perfect!

Everyone: we still need authors for Building Default Lines and "Standard" Bet Sizing, and we've got a spot open on July 19 if you've got a good idea for a COTW. Does anyone want to have a go at Re-Stealing which was previously scheduled but didn't happen?

If you've got any questions just PM me. Or, of course, just post in the thread.