(Scare cards)
I would actually add that Ah in the list of unwanted cards. If villain chased a flush, you just got yourself a second-best top set with just one card left to boat up. If he didn't chase a flush, he would probably shut down.

But taking your list only:
- 8 hearts
- 3 non-heart queens
- 3 jacks
- 3 non-heart tens
- 2 non-heart nines
- 3 eights
- 3 non-heart sevens
= 25 cards out of unseen 47 (53% of the deck)

Yeah, that's a bunch indeed.

Okay, I think I found a decent sample hand.

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $52.25
UTG+1: $51.50
UTG+2: $50.00
MP1: $50.00
MP2: $65.65
Hero (CO): $57.20
BTN: $25.10
SB: $70.70
BB: $47.00

UTG+2 posts a big blind ($0.50)

Pre Flop: ($1.25) Hero is CO with 8 8
2 folds, UTG+2 checks, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $3, BTN calls $3, 3 folds, MP2 calls $2.50
Nothing out of the ordinary here. You would all play it the same.

Flop: ($10.25) 4 K A (3 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $5.50, BTN folds, MP2 folds
I use BOTH scare cards. My hand doesn't matter at all and even though I'm effectively bluffing two players at once, in this rare case I fully expect it to work.

Now, the reasoning:
1. I iso-raised preflop. My perceived range is probably "medium+ pairs, big cards".
2. The most obvious cold-calling hands missed
3. Even with preflop initiative, I'm still betting into two players; my bet looks like I have a hand and want to get action
4. I'm always isolating with AQ+ here
5. There can be no suited aces with flush draws around
6. Even if button cold-called with a suited ace, he realises that he must be behind: AK made top two, AQ outkicks him
7. MP2 missed this flop 90% of the time, and I'm getting all his whiffed pairs into the muck

The noteworthy thing here is that my hand has no real showdown value. I would do the same with 33. Preflop action combined with flop texture made this a spot where it was possible to cbet with "air" into multiple villains.

Now it's your turn guys. I'm sure you can come up with something better.

Bostik, one thing I'm curious about: Were you prepared to barrel the turn if one of them called you, or was your plan to fire once and then concede the hand?

You ain't effectively bluffing you might just have the best hand...

That half pot bet was the last money I was going to put in. If button had called, he would have been committed; me barreling the turn against him would be a shove.
If MP2 had called, I would have been none happier. Any hand he's willing to float OOP against my bet on that board is not going anywhere.

True, I may have the best hand, but what are the odds of it both reaching and holding up at showdown? Rather slim, I'd say. That's the reason I put quotes around air - my hand may have some value but taken to showdown I expect it to be good just about never.

I like your analysis of this hand, and your bet sizing makes sense "on paper", but would you make the same bet size with AK / AQ?

If I held AQ, yes. (One less out for JT.) If I held AK, I'd probably bet $6.50. This happily commits me against BTN and if MP2 has me beat, he'll let me know. The bet should be still small enough to encourage a call as opposed to a raise with a flush draw. The important factor is that MP2 should realise I am not yet committing myself against him.

This is an easy situation due to stack sizes. Now, if MP2 was the half-stacker and BTN had full+, then the situation would have been tricky. Also, if both players had been full-stacked, I would have had to bet $7.50-$8.

Thanks for clarifying that for me, I am typically wary of varying my bet sizes, and its certainly one of my weak areas.

In section 4, shouldn't this say:

Excellent post, Bostik, thank you very much.

Oh bugger, it should indeed.

NH sir well played.

I would be proud of this, if it were mine.

Great post! Can you elaborate why JTx is "awful" for cbetting?


/quote
Final Words

There is one very special kind of flop which is either extremely dry or extremely wet. Any JTx flop is plain awful. It connects with pretty much every single drawing hand, giving pairs, two pairs, pair+draws and just about everything under the sun. For a 3bet pot, there are very few hands that could have connected either way, so many of the hands are happy to float at least one street.

While it is true that the word "never" should not be used when discussing poker, in µNL this may be the single exception to the rule: Never, EVER cbet with complete air into a JTx flop out of position.

It's all about perceived ranges, combined with the fact that being out of position sucks.

I'll counter with a question of my own.
- What hands would you 3bet preflop with?
- What hands would you expect to (cold-)call your 3bet?
- What hands would you raise preflop with?
- What hands would you expect to call your preflop raise?

When you have a hand that missed and has to act first on a JTx flop, can you ever expect to fold out worse hands? On the flipside, when you have a pocket pair or improved on the flop, what hands do you expect to call your bet? Why?

You just need to answer those questions for yourself.

OK, help me out with my thought process

- What hands would you 3bet preflop with?
depends, but w/o any meta play my 3b range is very narrow, QQ+, AK

- What hands would you expect to (cold-)call your 3bet?
AK, maybe A10+ if villain has money in pot and overcalls, midpairs 88-1010, maybe JJ but JJ-QQ+ would probably shove

- What hands would you raise preflop with?
in position A10-Q+, 88+, maybe suited connectors 910+ in position

- What hands would you expect to call your preflop raise?
similar hands that I would raise w/, but likely broader range to include smaller pairs, Ax suited, smaller suited connectors

When you have a hand that missed and has to act first on a JTx flop, can you ever expect to fold out worse hands?
??? porque no? I guess you're saying my JTx hits a greater % of my opponent's calling range, but is this significant enough to warrant against a cbet? after all, opponent still likely to have missed flop, but, I guess they would be more inclined to call/raise giving you less credit on a JTx flop because this would miss my raising/3b range more often than A67 or K22 flop? I dunno, I'm rambling

On the flipside, when you have a pocket pair or improved on the flop, what hands do you expect to call your bet? Why?
in addition to above hands, all the draws would call if I gave 'em odds (if they're paying attention and/or care about such minutia LOL), TPTK or TPGK (good kicker, correct abbrev? maybe HK instead? or PK picture kicker? sorry, new to this , doubt middle pair/small pair

Now I'm even more confused on last 2 ?s, what's the diff whether or not I hit JTx flop, if opponent is gonna call they're gonna call (this sounds stupid as I type it, but it was my initial reaction to what I wrote above)

-rambling man

Very well, here we go, one by one. Remember, in every one of these situations you were out of position.

So technically you will never have complete air on a JTx flop.

Not even AKo on rainbow JTx flop is air: you have at best 10 outs against flopped pairs, although most often you can expect villain to have one of your aces. In such a situation, you would be cbetting a gutshot with two overcards. In fact, you would bet your overpairs in equal fashion to protect against the multitude of draws and to get value from TPTK.

In your case it would be possible to end up in this spot only when you 3bet from CO/HJ and get flatted by button - or you 3bet from blinds and got called by the original raiser. Hence, this spot does not really apply to you. You will always have a hand to play with.

I was thinking along the lines of more aggressive games at 50NL, and to a lesser extent 25NL.

Let's take each of those groups separately.
- AK has two overcards and knows that the flop was almost guaranteed to miss you. He is only really worried about JJ - against everything else his hand has 6-10 outs position.

- AT/AJ just made TPTK in a 3bet pot. AQ behaves similarly to AK.

- 88/99 have a pair and everyone puts AK in the raising and 3betting range; AK/AQ technically missed and again the 3bettor has to play out of position.
88 should fold to cbet relatively often but 99 less so if the last card is not a complete rag. Pair + gutshot + position + board that very likely missed the original 3bettor.... You get the drift.

- TT/JJ just made a set

- So of your raising range exactly ONE hand has "whiffed": 88. AT made a weak pair with top kicker, everything else got a hand that either improved or has potential to improve to nuts.

- Again, you have a playable hand 90% of the time on a JTx flop.

- Most regs would put a reasonable unknown on a range similar to yours. However, a regular rarely cold-calls with Axs. The hand is too vulnerable and can only really hit a NFD.

- Based on the previous section, even you would expect the cold-calling hands to have hit the flop pretty well. And the cold-caller has position on you...

You are on the right track. See the last section of this followup for a hopefully new view.

Exactly.

JTx is a perfect flop for floating with just about everything playable! When you bet on such a board, you want to do it for combination of value and protection.

The last two are by no means contradictory.

Consider this: your conservative range and play you have described here is almost exactly how regulars range reasonable unknowns. Do you see where I'm getting?

Try to imagine playing an aggressive, very steal-happy style towards which most regs here tend to drift. Those are the guys that steal with random broadways from HJ, adding assorted Kx+/67+/86+ from CO and an obscenely wide range from BTN.

The small nugget distills into this: What does a player like that feel like when he has to play against YOU, out of position, on a JTx flop?

For extra credit, figure out for yourself how lighter 3bets fit in with this.

i failed to remember this thread today

cbettet a 987 board

got called. lost. damnit

Very nice post and very easy to understand...let´s hope we can remember it in the heat of the battle

sick post.

Good read. Thanks OP

Nub question but what does the x mean in JTx?

"Anything else".

To make this as illustrative as possible, consider these two boards:

They both contain JT and then a third card. That third card is the missing "x".
Yes, "x" can also be an ace.

Brilliant post, only part of it I am not sure about is this. Any chance of a little clarification, please?

What he means is, a ton of hands people call with pre are things like:

Ax
pairs
T9, 98, 87, JT, etc.
broadways

a lot of them are between 8 and J

In case you are wondering why all the bumps for cotw threads. 2+2 is about to update the forum software and will be archiving all threads that have not been active since last February. Since the COTW threads are invaluable I am going back through cotw threads from 20009. Trying to do it all in one go during the night to lessen annoyance of taking up space in the unl forum.

Can anyone clarify this more in depth?

"All paired flops are dry in general, but all the flops between 88x and QQx are in fact very dry"