So Im late with my homework so I better have something useful to say.

(1) "You may ask yourself - How did I get here?"
The first thing is that the river should not be seen in isolation, if you find yourself beginning to formulate a plan on the when the river card comes down then the chances are that you are making an error. I say this because in general you should have a general idea what you are doing on most rivers (of course some multiway pots will throw you a curveball but in general we should know the direction).
In simple situations like TPGK+ vs a fish you can make commitment decisions on the flop and you aim here is just to make sure that you dont have to overbet the river to get all the money in the middle (though overbetting is still fine if all else fails). In some more marginal spots where you figure that your hand is not going to be good for 3 streets of value you will have to make the decision on the turn which street is best to bet, this will usually be based on the board texture and player type.

Golden Rule - Your river actions should be based on a formulated plan that begins as soon as you know your hold cards and villans. The plan morph and even be abandoned but river planning never starts on the river.

first!

(2) To bluff or not to bluff?
The second rule that I would have is that if you have the read the guy has a pair general river bluffs do not work all that often, getting people off strong pairs on the river is exceptionally difficult because if you are the kind of player that even thinks of doing this - then the chances are that you have the wrong image for doing this. That's not a hard and fast rule and once you get to playing with decent hand readers you can (and will have to) start bluffing rivers to prevent yourself being too predictable, at 50NL and below you will never need to do this and even against 95%+ of 100NL players you dont need to bluff rivers for image.
Reasons why river bluffs dont work
(i) There are no more streets so your opponent doesnt need to fear any further pressure
(ii) People like to see what you have
(iii) A lot of players live for that "durrr moment" where they call you with mid pair and you have AK (lol I KNEW it!!!)
(iv) People make most of their commitment decisions on the turn. So when they call the turn they figure they are ahead, so unless the river is the perfect storm in terms of scare cards, their range and your perceived range you should pretty much let it go.*

Debatable River Bluff Example

I'm not sure if it's even a good idea to include this but in the interests of discussion:

Here a 15/12 Reg attacks a limper from the blinds. I thin KQ is fine here against his range and also that of the limper should they call. The important thing being that I have position on the PFR and we have some history, with that in mind I proceed.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($162)
Hero ($124)
UTG ($106)
UTG+1 ($105)
UTG+2 ($222)
MP1 ($75.70)
MP2 ($200)
CO ($175)
BTN ($192)

Dealt to Hero KQ

fold, fold, fold, MP1 calls $1, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $5, Hero calls $4, fold,

FLOP ($11) 347

SB bets $7, Hero calls $7,

TURN ($25) 3474

check, Hero bets $19, SB calls $19,

RIVER ($63) 34746

check, Hero bets $93.50 (AI), SB folds,

Hero shows KQ

Hero wins $60

I'm pretty sure that he folded an overpair given how long he took on the river. Was it as strong as AA/KK? I'm not sure but the thing here is that my line here makes perfect sense for a set, it makes up the majority of the range that he puts me on.
Remember, this is very villan specifc, I knew that this guy would iso light, cbet too much and would be able to put me on a range here.
Also, I knew that if I did get looked up or he turned out to be capable of checking a set twice (which obviously I thought he couldn't) then there is a metagame value in my actions given that we often play together. So long as I switched to value I can bank on him being suspicious of me for a long time to come.


*As a footnote I will admit that this is temporary advice until you really know where you are at. At small stakes and above well timed river barrels will be very profitable - but only if done correctly. However, the situations are much rarer at uNL because less guys (even regs) have the hand reading ability to see what you rep and also have the discipline to follow that read. So for now, rather than make a botch job of aiming for the high fruit of river bluffs read on for how to get the low hanging fruit.

(3) So if I can't pull river moves at uNL then what can I do to improve?
"Dammit Paddy your such a nit, I was hoping for some ninja river moves that I could pull."
Well unless you have a read and are comfortable overbet shoving theres not much that can be done with people that have a decent pair+ on the river, unless you have access to their power lead you just cant make them fold, nor can anyone so just save that 50bb left in your stack for something useful (that advice comes from someone who has spent many a 50bb on lost causes).
So what do we do with these people who love to call?
Cast Spell/ VALUE BET
The power of river value betting is so awesome that you can seriously double your winrate if you do it right. I cant count the times I have been ready to hero call someone then they check back TP (even TPGK), stop missing value!!!!!!! (except against me where you should try out an open fold strategy in position on the river).
You can turn these guys 3rd pair "Durrrr moments" into "Duhhhh moments",

Thin Value Example 1

Villan here was 33/14 and I have a note "POL" = pays off light, nothing actually specific but such is the nature of multitabling.
Yes I could 3-bet pre-flop but I think it's sticky facing a 4-bet but either is fine for me.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($116)
BB ($100)
UTG ($208)
UTG+1 ($63.50)
UTG+2 ($36.30)
MP1 ($42.70)
Hero ($100)
CO ($128)
BTN ($28.60)

Dealt to Hero TT

fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, fold, fold, Hero calls $3, fold, fold, fold, fold,

FLOP ($7.50) 53Q

UTG+1 bets $5, Hero calls $5,

TURN ($17.50) 53Q2

check, Hero bets $13, UTG+1 calls $13,

RIVER ($43.50) 53Q28

check, Hero bets $25.50, UTG+1 calls $25.50,

UTG+1 shows 5K
(Flop 20.2%, Turn 11.4%)

Hero shows TT
(Flop 79.8%, Turn 88.6%)

Hero wins $91.50

I just never think he has a better hand on the turn and I don't think he ever folds an Ace on that turn, the river is actually very thin but if it's an edge take it!! You can't just wait for sets, get this easy money before your fellow tags.

Thin Value Example 2

No reads on the villan other than his stack size which indicates a fish for sure.
Not a great spot for a two barrel on the turn unless we want to follow up with a 3rd barrel and I don't think thats good given the stacks.
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($47.45)
BB ($54.05)
UTG ($115)
UTG+1 ($40)
UTG+2 ($152)
MP1 ($124)
Hero ($106)
CO ($43.20)
BTN ($128)

Dealt to Hero KJ

fold, fold, Hero raises to $4, fold, fold, SB calls $3.50, fold,

FLOP ($9) Q63

check, Hero bets $6, SB calls $6,

TURN ($21) Q635

check, check,

RIVER ($21) Q635J

check, Hero bets $8, SB raises to $16, Hero calls $8,

SB shows 67
(Flop 74.6%, Turn 86.4%)

Hero shows KJ
(Flop 25.4%, Turn 13.6%)

Hero wins $50.35

In my mind this is pretty standard on the river, the only debate is my bet sizing. I probably have not done enough experimentation with different sizing on the river.
In my experience "Loose players rarely fold a pair if you check the turn and bet 1/2 pot on the river".

This comes back to where I talk about making a plan based on multiple streets and your perceived range. I once heard Krantz outline what he felt goes through a callstations head as follows "well he checked the turn so he doesn't have pocket aces, so since he doesn't have pocket aces.... he must not have anything!!!" so they hero call. I thought this both humourous and true.
Remember, this is no blanket rule, you shouldn't always take a bet/check/bet line. Sometimes bet/bet/bet is better sometimes bet/bet/check every situation is different but never ever stop trying to think a level above your opponent and never try to implement blanket rules.

(4) Bet Sizing - Ummm 2/3 pot all the time right?
The math is simple
Profit = Size of bet x %Called

*Example
130bb Stacks, we iso a callstation with AQ
Flop: Q 3 4 (11bb in pot)
We bet 8bb, callstation calls (27bb in pot)
Turn: A
We bet 21bb callstation calls (69bb in pot)
River 2
We have ~100bb what do we bet?

1/2 pot bet?
Full pot bet?
Overbet shove?

Lets assume that the callstation has the following range by the river:

Straight - 52s 4 Combos (Always calls or shoves)
Busted 76 - 16 Combos (Always Folds)
KQ 1 Pair - 6 Combos (Will only call 1/2 pot)
AK 1 Pair - 8 Combos (Will Call anything but an overbet)
A3 2 Pair - 6 combos (Always Calls)
A4 2 Pair - 6 Combos (Always Calls)
A2 2 Pair - 6 Combos (Always Calls)

Here's where you have to do some work, I will post the answers later in the thread - no spoilers for the lazy amongst you.

(5) Hero Calls

Again this cant be done in isolation ever and relies totally on hand reading. As a general rule nits will never fire a river bet as a bluff, standard regs will very rarely (and never without serious history) even the more aggressive regs will rarely try to bluff you once you call two decent size bets.
Furthermore most of these guys are not capable of valuebetting thin, hell some of them cant valuebet top pair even when its clearly safe as houses so when they bet they usually have it. So how do we ever figure if these guys are actually bluffing rivers? Simple, pay attention to other hands and showdowns. If you are a megatabler and don't have time for such things as paying attention then you have to do some groundwork in PT/HEM to figure out their tendancies.
So without a read (and some solid post flop skills) we really shouldn't be hero calling the aforementioned player types so what about fishes and bad lags? Well in general I follow a guideline
"If a fish/maniac/badlag line on an eary street makes no sense prepare to call 3 streets"
So what does "not make sense" mean? Well even horrible players will play their value range (however wide) in a way that should extract value from other good hands (i.e. they will c/r or c/c). So when a donkey* overbet donks into you on a K73 flop and you have JJ its the easiest call in the world and you should close your eyes and continue to hit that call button to the river.

"Just Click Call" Example

This guy had just sat down at a FR table, no reads except that he had limped a couple of buttons plus bought in weird.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
($69.45)
Hero ($157)

Dealt to Hero A5

Hero raises to $3, calls $2,

FLOP ($6) 6Q6 (AI)

bets $6, Hero calls $6,

TURN ($18) 6Q6A (AI)

bets $16, Hero calls $16,

RIVER ($50) 6Q6AQ (AI)

bets $44.45 (AI), Hero calls $44.45,

Hero shows A5
(Flop 78.6%, Turn 100.0%)

shows 32
(Flop 21.4%, Turn 0.0%)

Hero wins $138

Note that I don't think the ace on the turn does very much for me with the exception of reinforcing my read that he is just FOS.
By calling the flop I made a plan to just call to the river regardless.

*To find this particular species start your own tables, I'm not kidding when I say that a lot of these guys are so bad that they don't often last long enough to see a full table.



Phew, hope that's a good basis for discussion.
Paddy

Many thanks for the post, will read fully & digest.

BTW - Thin value examples 1 & 2 are the same hands with different write ups

great stuff:

Now what about the Kxx flop and you are the preflop raiser, and an unknown went c/c for two streets then overhsoves the river?

Its different than your example since they didn't donk each street, but played passively and then woke up on the river. Usually I default to they have a strong hand? toughts?

Damn didnt think anyone would read that far lol.
Fixed now.

Yeah total opposite unless its Kx 7d 8d and all the draws brick. Even at that this line is just much more for value. Id need a good Kx to call given that action.

I will have a go at the quiz....



Am I along the right lines (& is the math correct ?)

Better late than never!

Good CoW!

Am I missing something on the river? What is the difference between a river pot bet or a river shove.

Pot bet is $63

Yes, thank you, I can subtract . But I want to know why. What does hero accomplish by the over betting here. Is seems to me that a pot bet is effectively the same thing, so what am I missing?