I'm a newish player at 4nl (65k hands) and I'm doing my best to get this 'value bet' thing into my head. When I bet it's because internally I'm saying 'Screw you I have the best hand' or 'I don't believe you have a hand' or other ego related thoughts. I've only just started trying to think 'I'm betting here for value because I'm pretty certain I have the best hand and he's calling me with a draw or worse hand that he thinks might win at showdown' but holy-space-camels-from-zargon19 I'm having difficulty getting away from my old thought patterns. I actually think I'm a bit damaged from furniture wrecking bubble-exits in Turbo SnG's.

SRY BUT U HAVE A BIG MISTAKE IN CALCULATION

We will win in 54% but the split will be 33% not 16,6% (read the pokerstove report more carefully, it counts half of splits as wins for one player a second half for the other) and he will win only 13% of the time.

And that of course changes a lot - it werent weird for you that 3 outer or a running running flush will win 29% of the time???

just an awesome post, especially the second part, where u analyize possible outcomes of barreling, just made me thinking.... thanks

In case you are wondering why all the bumps for cotw threads. 2+2 is about to update the forum software and will be archiving all threads that have not been active since last February. Since the COTW threads are invaluable I am going back through cotw threads from 20009. Trying to do it all in one go during the night to lessen annoyance of taking up space in the unl forum.