ok here's my take on King Spew's homework:
Hero is dealt 99
Villain’s PF range = 22+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, AJo+, KJo+, QJo, JTo
On the turn: T
48.5 BB pot after villain bets 22 BB
Villain has 90.5 BB behind
Villain’s turn cbet range = AA - 77, 22, AKs, ATs, ATo, QJs, QJo, JTs - J9s, JTo - J9o,
I am adjusting the preflop range to include the J9 straight here since villain is willing to fire a double barrel on a connected board. I have removed a lot of the overcards that would most likely not fire again, but left a few in (AK) because he will do this once in a while. I’m deriving this range based on PF range + board texture + postflop tendencies (65% turn cbet in particular).
Villain will continue with straight, OESD (T9), sets, and overpairs. He folds 56% of the time.
Hero has 23% equity versus villain’s continuance range.
Profit (BB) = (0.66 * 48.5) + 0.34((0.23 * 139) – (0.77 * 90.5))
Profit (BB) = 27.16 + 0.34(-37.72)
Profit (BB) = 14.33
Since shoving is profitable, I am assuming that is going to be the best option as opposed to calling. We do fold out all worse hands and only get called by better. BUT we can also fold out some better hands, and we are not going to gain any more value out of worse hands on the river by calling the turn anyways unless those worse hands improve to better hands and end up beating us. And if we end up calling and hitting our straight, we are not getting anymore either since our hand is obvious.
And shoving is even better if we can ever get him to lay down overpairs. I think he may be capable of folding JJ/QQ in this spot.
Flopzilla does not account for turn, which is essentially blank except for villain having 22. I've taken that into account by upping the continuation % a bit. I also removed two 9's from the deck, which we have: