Lets say we have 8h7h and the flop is Ac, Th, 3h. A reg opens from EP for 3bb, we call on the button, and then the reg bets the flop for 75% pot and we call.

We have 100bb effective stacks, and on the turn the Jh comes, completing our flush on an Ac, Th, 3h, Jh board. The reg bets again and the standard play here is to raise and try to stack off here. But most regs will normally fold to this raise, particularly if they don't know that you are capable of bluff representing the flush yet, so they are likely to play it safe and muck their 2 pairs or worse, and call with their sets to try and fill up if you give them implied odds, and maybe muck all sets except top set if you don't give them implied odds to fill up, since they likely spaz shove top set and hope you don't have the flush since regs don't like folding sets too often, particularly if it is the toppest set.

However, what if we just call this turn bet to disguise our flush and look to raise all-in on any safe river cards where our chances of getting paid off are higher since we can't have a flush on the river in the regs mind since we would have raised the turn right?

So the cards we don't want to see on the river are: Ah, Kh, Qh, 9h, 6h, 5h, 4h, 2h, Ad, As, Tc, Ts, Td, 3c, 3s, 3d, Jc, Js, Jd

This is 19 bad outs out of 46 cards, so 41% of the time we will see an undesirable river, and 59% of the time we are in a good spot for more $$$. However, if our opponent has a set, then there will only be 17 possible bad cards that could come, and also, just because an undesirable river card comes, then our hand could still be good and so we can probably call the river bet with the board-pairing outs, and still win the hand anyway. If we have the nut flush instead of the 8-high flush, then if any of the hearts roll off on the river, then these are actually safe outs too since we would still have the nuts and could pick off a bluff on the river if the reg fired again.

Therefore if we just flat on the turn, then more than half the time we have a chance to win more cashola with the effective nuts on the river, and probably half of the other times when the river brings bad cards, our hand will still be good against a 3 barrelling reg, and half the times we lose the pot with our hand not being good.

So against a reg, do some people think that this line is more profitable to take, since flushes are easy to spot and you don't usually have as much implied odds as you think with flush draws against a competent opponent, unless you attempt to play them tricky and don't just raise the moment that your flush comes in?

Obviously I'm always discounting the times the reg has a better flush on the turn, since these times are rare and I'm always going broke here if that happens and I don't think it effects what we are trying to accomplish, which is just to get our stack in the middle, and the reg's stack in the middle at some point on the turn or on a safe river, as many times as we possibly can.

You think most regs are folding top two or bottom set to a turn raise on a 3-flush board? Not from my experience to be honest. I also don't think flatting a turn bet with a flush is such an unusual line that a reg will discount a flush from hero's range completely. If they have a set, we're probably stacking off no matter what happens provided we are reasonably aggressive and ~100bb deep.

However, if a reg has opened from EP, there are few flops which give them many two pair possibilities (AJ is the only one and is still borderline in the above example) and vil rarely has bottom set (33) anyway. So I suppose their range in the example is kind of polarized to that against which we're stacking off against regardless of our action, one pair type hands that may c/c a river bet but not a turn raise, and bluffs (as the Jh is a fairly good hand to double barrel as one can rep wide - AK-AJ, sets, KQ for a straight and flushes).

What about if we're OOP? Say we overlimp in MP and a reg isos on the button, everyone calls, heads up by the turn? What line would you take there?

In my experience of $25NL and $50NL, my flushes have not been getting paid as handsomely against regs as I'd like them to be. If the flush fills after you've flatted them IP, a lot of them check and call hoping to boat up or to control the pot size.

Maybe I've just been running bad and the regs haven't had a strong hand each time I've had the flush, but it's been a while since I've shoved my stack in with a suited connector after making a flush and then getting paid off.

As for being OOP, I've noticed in my database that check/calling a flush draw on the flop is +EV, but check/calling the turn on a flush draw is -EV, since the implied odds are worse as the turn bet you have to call is larger compared to the effective stacks than the flop bet is, and if you hit the flush on the river, you turn your hand fairly face up if you lead out, and if you attempt a check/raise, often the villain will check back all one pair hands and possibly two pair hands, and they bet/fold their sets to half pot or something, which isn't enough implied odds if you only win a half pot sized bet off them after the flush comes in.

I do try to bluff raise the turn occasionally if the flush comes in, with some decent success, so maybe I need to start bluff shoving rivers too when the flush fills and they are bet/folding all of their value hands that beat my air.

These paragraphs are killing my eyes.

Pokie I have the same experience as you, are a decent number of regs have been doing just what you have described to me and I've been paying them handsomely.

Although I do agree that the higher limit that you go to, the more bluff ranges you should have in your raise turn which will force good players to call at least one street if not two and pay you.

moral of the story = don't flat suited connectors against reg's because they often won't pay you off when you do hit

solution = 3bet them against regulars with high fold to 3b%'s IP because they play well when called and you pick up the pot uncontested the majority of the time. Your suited connectors also have a far greater chance of getting paid off because their not included in a perceived conventional 3betting range.

looks like you should start bluff raising turns

I do that anyway, not loads, but once every 1,000 hands or so.

I like to over-call with suited connectors IP if someone else has come along in front of me.

I usually 3bet my suited connectors from the blinds because I can't flat with them OOP so I would just be folding these in the SB or BB if I didn't use them for something else. I like to 3bet these from the blinds so that I can cbet low flops in a 3bet pot and they can hit me sometimes.

how about raising flop? A decent Villain can't continue with much, and if he gets sticky with AK/AQ, then we're setting things up to stack him when we flop our set.