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Call shove with straight on board? Call shove with straight on board?

04-14-2017 , 01:10 PM
NL4
Utg(7.90)
Utg+1(4.28)
Utg+2(2.36)
Utg+3(3.28)
Mp1(3.96)
CO(4.24)
Btn(1.01)
SB(1.87)
BBHero(6.37)

Pre flop
Utg+2 calls 0.04, MP raises 0.12, Co calls 0.12, 2 folds, HeroAA raises 0.42 2 folds, co calls 0.42

Flop
786
Hero raises 0.57, Co raises 1.14, hero calls 1.14

Turn
4
Hero checks, Co checks

River
5
Hero checks, Co raises 2.66 and is all in, Hero tank folds

Any thoughts on how I played this hand? V raised flop and checked turn which isn't how a set would be played so by river I was thinking he could have had a 89,79 type hand so i ended up folding. Although shoving in this spot is the oldest trick in the book. I flipped a coin in my head and folded. Could I have gotten it in on earlier streets for value/deny equity or will i only be called by sets/straights?
Call shove with straight on board? Quote
04-16-2017 , 01:26 PM
Consider the general situation of calling a shove aP where a is a constant and P is the pot size. If you’re calling for a chop where b is the % of time villain has that beats the board you should call if b < (a+1)/(3a+1). This compares to the non-chop condition b < (a+1)/(2a+1) where b is % villain beats your hand excluding chops.

What does this mean? In this case the shove is around 80%. You should call if the probability villain has 9 or better (given they have shoved) is less than 53%. In situations where you could win the whole pot you could call profitably if this probability was less than 69%.
Call shove with straight on board? Quote
04-16-2017 , 02:14 PM
thanks but any thoughts on how likely it is he had a 9? He can't have 109 since he checked turn and I'm not certain he's calling big 3 bets with 79 89 so the only hand i can see him having for value is 99
Call shove with straight on board? Quote
04-16-2017 , 03:47 PM
Villian has a pretty wierd line here imo. He can have 99 that tried to get you off an overpair on the flop and gave up on turn. He could have a set (a bunch of people will call 3 bets with pp) that decided to jam river knowing you are unlikely to have 9x, and you will either have to fold or split the vast majority of the time. Any good thinking player could jam river as a bluff here, although calling a squeeze after flatting the original raise is almost always an indicator of a fishy player, at best something like 29/10 stats. I think it is hard to say with no stats or reads, as ranges vary widely by player type. I would opt to fold river assuming the player base is more heavily weighted to a passive play style (I find this works well from experience at micros), although I would not hate myself for calling here, given that villian has very strong logical incentive to bluff.
Call shove with straight on board? Quote
04-16-2017 , 04:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by matt23mcg
thanks but any thoughts on how likely it is he had a 9? He can't have 109 since he checked turn and I'm not certain he's calling big 3 bets with 79 89 so the only hand i can see him having for value is 99
I fully agree he has 9 a lot of the time but a thinking villain would shove always as you don't have a 9 in your range. Villain does not have over 53% hands with a 9 though so a call.
Call shove with straight on board? Quote
04-20-2017 , 05:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerforumposter
Any good thinking player could jam river as a bluff here, although calling a squeeze after flatting the original raise is almost always an indicator of a fishy player
This plus the villain turn check are the important pieces of information. Anything else is talking yourself into a call.
Call shove with straight on board? Quote
04-23-2017 , 08:22 AM
I think this is just a clear fold.

There's a good chance he has 9x. Any set would cbet the turn. You having AA means he has less Ax hands including all the premium ones he would call preflop.

A good player isnt jamming all his bluffs here because there's a chance you have 99 or 9x in this spot and play all 3 streets the same way.

If he's a bad player bluff jamming too much in these spots, you will catch him in the long run.
Call shove with straight on board? Quote
04-23-2017 , 09:31 PM
there were some good opinion on this hand I agree that villain had a lot of 9s in his range that he could play this way. although we are getting decent odds and he can basically jam any of his hands here as a bluff so i think i could have called but its close. I forgot to add v is pretty aggressive and after I folded he showed AQ so I may be results oriented
Call shove with straight on board? Quote
04-24-2017 , 03:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by matt23mcg
there were some good opinion on this hand I agree that villain had a lot of 9s in his range that he could play this way. although we are getting decent odds and he can basically jam any of his hands here as a bluff so i think i could have called but its close. I forgot to add v is pretty aggressive and after I folded he showed AQ so I may be results oriented
If you want to play exploitative, then yeah you could call against these very aggressive people.

However if you to stick to a more balanced strategy, then you can still fold here and be profitable in the long run. If he's jamming AQ here, then he is jamming a lot of bluffs and a solid balanced strategy will make him pay for that type of style.
Call shove with straight on board? Quote
04-25-2017 , 01:57 PM
Why check turn here?

Not sure what your plan was if he bet.

It feels like your giving up the hand on the turn.

I bet turn.
Call shove with straight on board? Quote
04-26-2017 , 12:44 AM
I was checking to him since he raised me on the flop and to get value from his bluffs. Im not sure if thats good logic or not but I thought if I raised on turn or 3 bet on flop then id wouldn't get value from worse and get raised by sets/straights but i guess i could be getting value from 99-QQ and 9x
Call shove with straight on board? Quote

      
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