[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
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SB: $4 (40 bb)
BB: $14.63 (146.3 bb)
UTG+1: $12.11 (121.1 bb)
UTG+2: $13.39 (133.9 bb)
MP1: $22.05 (220.5 bb)
MP2: $6.14 (61.4 bb)
Hero (MP3): $15.48 (154.8 bb)
CO: $11.36 (113.6 bb)
BTN: $10.82 (108.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A A
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.90, 4 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.95) 5 3 8 (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $1.40, UTG+2 calls $1.40

Turn: ($4.75) 2 (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $3, UTG+2 raises to $11.09 and is all-in, Hero calls $8.09

River: ($26.93) T (2 players, 1 is all-in)

I cannot see any legit hand that would do that on the turn and that you can beat.

You can only beat a bluff.

In an extreme case maybe someone overplaying Kings or Queens but that's unlikely as he would have raised the flop in that case...

Anyway it is much more likely you are beat on the turn (any two pairs, sets, flushes, straights) so many hands that have you beat.

You don't even have the ace of spade.

I would fold on the turn

Villain raised pre, called the 3b, and then check-called the flop so 2P is very unlikely. A set is possible but doubtful the way he played the flop and turn.

I also don't think villain shoves the turn with a made flush. A check-call or smaller x/r would make more sense.

My prediction is villain has the As and this is a semi-bluff shove. This could be something like A3/A8/A5 or AT-AQ with the As. So I make the call.

Why is a set doubtful the way he played flop and turn? Standard baluga spot imho, only thing that makes me doubt it is the 3b pre which should discount sets a bit. But then again, this is a bit deeper than usual and the 3b wasn't that big, so he might not fold any pair there. Calling with a set on flop is totally fine in villains spot because hero has little equity against us unless he has AsKs or AsQs specifically (other hands are unlikely for a basic TAG here).

Tough part is that this is such a low board that maybe some players with JJ/QQ who have 'made up their mind that they're not folding but don't want to get into a difficult spot otr so let's just shove lol' are out there.

I doubt someone calls this flop oop with just overs and a backdoor draw unless they're terribad or very tricky.

Also minraise turn for villain is to 6 which leaves a whopping 2.09 behind. Might as well shove now.

I suppose a set is more possible than I first thought since Hero did 3b. Villain might be aware enough to know that reduces the flush draws in Hero's range. However, I don't think too many players are raising 33/55 in EP.

And you're right about the x/r size, I didn't account for Hero's stack size. If he was deeper villain might go for a smaller x/r with a monster.

This is a hand where info on villain would be very helpful.

I can see hardly A3/A8/A5 in his calling 3bet pre range as same as in his opening

Do you think checking turn is bad here?