[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $10.90 (109 bb)
BB: $10.92 (109.2 bb)
UTG+2: $18.61 (186.1 bb)
MP1: $5.64 (56.4 bb)
MP2: $10.31 (103.1 bb)
MP3: $13.07 (130.7 bb)
CO: $9.39 (93.9 bb)
Hero (BTN): $12.99 (129.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with T T
2 folds, MP2 raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) 4 2 7 (2 players)
MP2 bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.55) 3 (2 players)
MP2 bets $1, Hero calls $1

River: ($3.55) 8 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $3.10

Allot of articles Ive read talk about how bluffing in the micros isnt necessary and just concentrate on playing for value. Primarily I stick to this advice but Im trying to learn how to identify good spots to bluff on later streets. What I find im struggling with is knowing when to just take the immediate showdown value of my hand and when I should be turning my hand into a bluff.

So with this hand villain is a fairly straight forward player (betting when they have it folding when they dont) with stats of 17/12, 33 cbet, 100 turn cbet, 15 postflop Agg%, 15 wwsf and 67 w$sd over 184 hands.

My thought process was

preflop: Calling on the BTN to keep vilains range as wide as possible, I expect to be in pretty bad shape v. villains 4betting range and even 3bet calling range from MP.

Flop: Although villain has a low cbet% I still think that they are doing this with AK and sometimes AQ as well has some hands we beat like 66 88 and 99. I also dont expect villains MP range to have many flush draws.

Turn: the 3s is unlikley to effect villains range and although I doubt AQ or even AK is double barrelling that often I still beat a large enough portion of villains range imo to justify a call.

River: So when villain checks Im expecting them to have some form of showdown value with there range being comprised of sets of 77 and 88, pairs 66 99-AA and some A high AK and sometimes AQ. I decided that with how I played the hand and my perceived range (I could have sets, a flush and sometimes but not often a straight or an overpair) this would be a good spot to turn this hand into a bluff. Also villain has such a low WTSD stat I figured they could be pushed off over pairs like JJ-KK. I make the bet on the larger side to try an maximise my fold equity.

So my question, is this a good spot to turn this hand into a river bluff or should I just check behind the river and take my immediate showdown value?

What story are you telling?

Let's reframe the hand as a conversation:
(Preflop)
Villain: I have a high pair, probably aces.
Hero: I have a decent speculative hand, I'll try to crack it.
(Flop)
Villain: My hand still looks good.
Hero: I think you're FOS.
(Turn)
Villain: Nope, I'm not.
Hero: Well I'm gonna stick with my weak overpair on this board, still not sure I believe you.
(River)
Villain: I don't like that river card and you must have some kind of a hand. I don't want to play for stacks.
Hero: That river card doesn't bother me, let's play for half your stack.

A good bluff tells a consistent story.

-------------

Do you think your river bet is going to make Villain muck two queens?

this!

Isnt this the story of someone playing a flush draw on the BTN that got there on the river? or even a set as you would expect MP to bet a flush on the river for value?

you even said it yourself

It's the story of a fish playing a flush draw and overpaying to draw on the turn that got there on the river, or slowplaying a set the way fish like to. So yeah, it might work if Villain thinks you're a fish.

So presumably you're raising your FD's and sets on a previous street?

It looks like an ok spot to turn a hand like TT into a bluff vs these stats but I don't think you are getting enough folds at 10nl. This + your showdown value should make it a xb.

In general, the good spots to bluff at the micros are the flop (mainly by cbetting) and 4 to a flush boards (clarkmeister's theorem).

If he is as straightforward as you say, and only has 15% post flop Agg, I doubt he barrels overcards on that turn, so I'd weight his range towards an overpair or set. So I think it's hard for you to justify a turn call unless you plan on using a diamond on the river as a bluff out tbh. I don't think you actually state his WTSD % or fold river % but I'm not sure I fancy trying to make someone lay down a range which is heavily weighted to overpairs and sets.

Bluffing flush cards can be very effective, esp against players like this, but maybe just not here. If you feel he has enough overcards for you to call turn, he also has enough cards for you take your SDV OTR.

I just dont get why would you turn an overpair into a bluff in this spot,from my pov youre value betting,not bluffing.

I mean,do you really think villain would check KK/AA or a set here?Except from the FD nothing really scary came in on the river,and villain might decide to check small pairs like 55/66/88 that were looking good on flop/turn.

So is a bet in order?Imo it would surely be if the FD had missed cause you could represent the missed draw,as it played out id check in this spot cause:
-If by any chance villain has a big pair(JJ+) i really doubt hes folding for most prices.except maybe for full pot or overbets,which is a risky play cause he still might call
-if for some reason he was barreling with AK/AQ(which his MP open range is prolly full of) he gave up and i dont think hes calling a bet
-the only hands i can see him calling with that you beat are 99 and maybe 66 that barreled turn cause picked up a gutter and now feels obliged to bluffcatch

It's not really a valuebet because there are very few Villain hands that call it. He is mostly showing up with an overpair (always calling, usually winning) or air (always folding but Hero wins showdown anyway).

OP thinks this bet is getting Villain to lay down overpairs a lot, but it isn't. He might occasionally muck JJ but imo he is never going to muck QQ for three dollars.

After the turn action Hero's hand is extremely faceup if Villain is thinking at all.

Agree,villain is not folding overpairs and even the bet size doesnt seem right for a value bet.
Maybe if we make a small token bet of like 1/4 pot we get villain to call w some small pairs,maybe a suspicious AK barreling for no reason,and fold out all the air that gave up anyway,so it actually has the same effect but gives us a better price.

My question in all of this is, if we think villain isn't folding overpairs here otr, then isn't this a more optimum way to play our sets also? Whereas, a raise on, say, the turn with a set possibly gets folds from overpairs. But earlier in the thread you said playing a set or FD like this is completely fishy?? Your logic sounds counter-intuitive to me.

So you beat about half of this range you assigned him to have on the river and then you try to bluff to get the stronger half of the range to fold (which it most likely will not) ?

Your logic was reasonably well all the way through and then on the river you just went berserk

Most people say that in the micros bluffing is -ev not just unecessary. Fancy play is for higher stakes. I dont believe that there is not room for bluffing but in this thread its quite obvious why you struggle with this hand. Everybody is. So imo hands with equyity should be out of the question and should pick spots only with pure bluffs.

I don't agree with this. Nearly all draws hero might have had on flop have got there and villain would expect hero check down over pair hands and take their showdown value on river.