this is what I am thinking, and given the way the hand played out seems like folding out a chop was likely, plus I think a few random flushes may have folded out.

What is sort of bothering me is that it is a big shove making bad IO on the shove given pot size, and what is calling, never is a weaker hand is calling so it is really a pure bluff.

turn play, is strange, espescially by villain, but it sets up the river. Question is do we repop it here, and get value from other hands?

I often can't tell if someone is joking or trolling in Rapid's threads, but just out of curiousity, do you actually believe the average 10nl reg, ever folds Kx here? Or non nut flushes?

I'm askin you this in all seriousness because people do not fold those hands, just look at some of the 2+2 threads where the standard answer would've been if villain had called here with a flush ''ooh, it's a cooler''.

average unknown, I think this is terrible play. I would call the river, and probably raise the turn.

Against a nittish player, (and I would be looking at preflop stats and W$SD of over 60%), I would say they would be folding here. There are enough nut peddlars at every level to make a bluff like this a legitimate option (but not necessary the best, or standard play).

^^@sammy... this is zoom.... a 9/6 or whatever he was just meant that over the small sample villain has been quick folding away

stack size + postflop play is more how i see who the fish is in zoom & yea his turn raise for me makes me know hes fish

the shove was 23 dollars, but villain only had 8 on his stack

my bad i wasnt posting sober i didnt see we had a straight.

Bet more on the flop, bet more on the turn and raise less river, you're only getting called by a flush and he will fold two pairs/sets to that overbet OTR.

^^^This

Unless I'm missing something.

This isn't even a bluff. This is just FPS for these stakes.

I keep flip flopping on this hand. So I made up a spreadsheet.

I assumed a couple things: 1, the money we put in the pot is gone. I did not calculate that into what we bet. This is merely a river decision.

so assuming V has the flush X% of the time (doesn't really matter what we use) if you jam and V calls with nothing but a flush you will win a 4.70 pot Y% of the time. when V calls you will lose 8.17 X% of the time.

if you are certain V has the K and you just call the $1 bet then Y% of the time you will win 1/2 of a 5.70 pot and X% of the time you will lose $1.

SB $7.17
Hero $8.17 pot $4.70
amount to call $1.00

flush % EV Jam Ev Call
0% $4.70 $2.85
5% $4.06 $2.66
10% $3.41 $2.47
15% $2.77 $2.27
20% $2.13 $2.08
25% $1.48 $1.89
30% $0.84 $1.70
35% $0.20 $1.50
40% -$0.45 $1.31
45% -$1.09 $1.12
50% -$1.74 $0.93


so we can see there needs to be a pretty high % chance V has the flush to make this less EV to jam.

now this doesn't take into account the amount of times V will call with K and we lose some to rake or when V calls with a set or worse straight.

But honestly the more I think about it the more I doubt V is ever calling with a range so wide after raising the turn.




equation EV Jam (W% x pot) less (stack size x flush%)

equation EV Call (W% x pot /2) less (amount to call x flush%)

I'm a bit confused.

Is Y = (1 - x)?

Are you assuming that the Villain folds when we shove and he has a K?

yes and yes


I'm assuming the K folds 100% of the time. I know this is a stretch, but this is the intent of the bluff/jam.

When villain's have such tight ranges preflop I think we can take it even further than this. Of course villain being 14/8 complicates things a little bit as smaller vpip/pfr gap players have much more defined ranges. Regardless I still think we can construct a fairly accurate range.

We chop:
6 combos of AK
8 combos of KQ
9 combos KJ

We lose:
1 combo KQdd
1 combo KTdd
1 combo QTdd (highly unlikely this craises the turn.. i'd say almost never)
I'd guess around 3 combos of baby flushes (also highly unlikely to craise the turn)

So 23 combos chop, 6 combos (generous imo) lose. If OP's read is correct that villain folds all the chops then this is a +EV shove.

The fact that he cminraised the turn makes me really feel like his only flushes are the KQdd and KTdd, but I think both would bet bigger on the river. If this player were 14/12 or 12/10 and we held the Kd then we can remove almost his flushes and the river is def a good play imo. In this situation against a wider cold calling range and without the Kd I think the shove might be a little ambitious. OTOH, 14/8's tend to be nut peddlars and I can definitely see him laying down chops here with high frequencies.

epic.

.... fail".

There, finished off your sentence.