PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 106.4 BB (VPIP: 15.15, PFR: 12.12, 3Bet Preflop: 1.87, Hands: 299)
SB: 40 BB (VPIP: 13.64, PFR: 10.23, 3Bet Preflop: 8.57, Hands: 89)
BB: 115.2 BB (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 3.85, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
UTG: 154.8 BB
(VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 20.77, 3Bet Preflop: 2.13, Hands: 133)
UTG+1: 155.2 BB (VPIP: 20.31, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.72, Hands: 325)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 11.83, PFR: 9.14, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 187)
Hero (MP+1): 134.6 BB
CO: 104.6 BB (VPIP: 15.07, PFR: 13.18, 3Bet Preflop: 4.19, Hands: 536)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero
UTG raises to 3 BB
, Hero raises to 10 BB
calls 7 BB
Flop: (21.4 BB, 2 players)
checks, Hero bets 14.4 BB
calls 14.4 BB
Turn: (50.2 BB, 2 players)
checks, Hero bets 33.8 BB
, UTG raises to 130.4 BB and is all-in
calls 76.4 BB and is all-in
River: (270.6 BB, 2 players)
Until the turn the hand kind of plays itself.
When the turn comes there are two main questions:
1) Should we keep betting?
The range I put this loose UTG Villain when they called the flop was something like:
This is a pretty wide range (but it could be wider depending on what Villain will call 3 bets OOP with) and I assumed Villain would float the flop with a few good hands containing the Ad as well as a few pairs that will only give up after they face a second bet.
On the turn, if we bet I'd expect a lot of these hands to give up and the continuation range from a loose Villain to be something like:
Basically, they'd give up middle pairs but probably keep chasing with a straight and/or flush draws. Not sure if QQ and JJ would let go and knowing this will greatly affect our estimated equity.
Overall, it seems that we can still get value from some hands that we beat although our equity may not be that great anymore. Note that Villain does have a few made flushes in their range too. Should this really be a concern given that it's such a small part of their range?
Another factor that I took into consideration was not giving Villain a free card for a 4 card flush.
The combination of both these factors led me to think betting was the correct decision. Do you agree?
2) Should we call the shove?
Now, based on the range we had above, we can eliminate some hands that for sure wouldn't shove and get a narrower range yet:
We have exactly 50% equity against this range but ranges are such an inexact science. I mean, if we include a few too many/few hands in our estimation of their range, it skews equity a lot.
On the spot my thinking was "if he can do this with a K I should call".
One last thing to note is that it is sometimes wrong to exclude JJ+ from their range simply because they didn't 4 bet. This is why I left them in.
So, would you call the shove?