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Old 03-12-2017, 10:13 AM   #1
AntonioQuina
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Barreling when flush comes

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 106.4 BB (VPIP: 15.15, PFR: 12.12, 3Bet Preflop: 1.87, Hands: 299)
SB: 40 BB (VPIP: 13.64, PFR: 10.23, 3Bet Preflop: 8.57, Hands: 89)
BB: 115.2 BB (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 3.85, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
UTG: 154.8 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 20.77, 3Bet Preflop: 2.13, Hands: 133)
UTG+1: 155.2 BB (VPIP: 20.31, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.72, Hands: 325)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 11.83, PFR: 9.14, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 187)
Hero (MP+1): 134.6 BB
CO: 104.6 BB (VPIP: 15.07, PFR: 13.18, 3Bet Preflop: 4.19, Hands: 536)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A A

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 7 BB

Flop: (21.4 BB, 2 players) 5 3 K
UTG checks, Hero bets 14.4 BB, UTG calls 14.4 BB

Turn: (50.2 BB, 2 players) 4
UTG checks, Hero bets 33.8 BB, UTG raises to 130.4 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 76.4 BB and is all-in

River: (270.6 BB, 2 players) 5


Until the turn the hand kind of plays itself.

When the turn comes there are two main questions:

1) Should we keep betting?

The range I put this loose UTG Villain when they called the flop was something like:

55+,33,AKs,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,AKo,AdQh,AdQs,AdQc,AdJh, AdJs,AdJc,KQs,KQo

This is a pretty wide range (but it could be wider depending on what Villain will call 3 bets OOP with) and I assumed Villain would float the flop with a few good hands containing the Ad as well as a few pairs that will only give up after they face a second bet.

On the turn, if we bet I'd expect a lot of these hands to give up and the continuation range from a loose Villain to be something like:

JJ+,66-55,33,AKs,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,AKo,AdQh,AdQs,AdQc,AdJh,A dJs,AdJc,KQs,KQo

Basically, they'd give up middle pairs but probably keep chasing with a straight and/or flush draws. Not sure if QQ and JJ would let go and knowing this will greatly affect our estimated equity.

Overall, it seems that we can still get value from some hands that we beat although our equity may not be that great anymore. Note that Villain does have a few made flushes in their range too. Should this really be a concern given that it's such a small part of their range?

Another factor that I took into consideration was not giving Villain a free card for a 4 card flush.

The combination of both these factors led me to think betting was the correct decision. Do you agree?

2) Should we call the shove?

Now, based on the range we had above, we can eliminate some hands that for sure wouldn't shove and get a narrower range yet:

KK+,55,33,AKs,KQs,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,KQo,AdKh,AdKs,AdK c

We have exactly 50% equity against this range but ranges are such an inexact science. I mean, if we include a few too many/few hands in our estimation of their range, it skews equity a lot.

On the spot my thinking was "if he can do this with a K I should call".

One last thing to note is that it is sometimes wrong to exclude JJ+ from their range simply because they didn't 4 bet. This is why I left them in.

So, would you call the shove?

Last edited by AntonioQuina; 03-12-2017 at 10:21 AM.
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Old 03-12-2017, 10:53 AM   #2
oc33rF
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Re: Barreling when flush comes

well first the guy is on UTG so i would take out 33-55 from his range even if he is vpip 30 is not likely he call a 3bet oop there with that, but meh sometimes it happen, any notes? do the villain just call a 3bet with KK AK?(i see some funky players doing it lately) i would consider something like AQs QJs QTs KJs KTs not really sure about offsuited broadway gappers maybe KQo.

midpairs 77-JJ i think would float the flop and fold the turn, then i would ask to myself what hands he bluff in this turn or semibluff with, i guess AK with Ad.

i would 3b the standard 3x, is it 3x+1BB a tell from you?, second i would bet smaller the flop.

since both of you are deep i think hands like 78s+ plays better given the spr, or QJs or TJs. As played and given his stats i would call trying to think in hands like QQ AK with a diamond. but if i had control of the pot and he reraise me the turn (thinking that i could made the pot smaller) i would try to go for showdown or fold on the river.
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Old 03-12-2017, 11:17 AM   #3
AntonioQuina
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Re: Barreling when flush comes

Quote:
Originally Posted by oc33rF View Post
well first the guy is on UTG so i would take out 33-55 from his range even if he is vpip 30 is not likely he call a 3bet oop there with that, but meh sometimes it happen, any notes? do the villain just call a 3bet with KK AK?(i see some funky players doing it lately) i would consider something like AQs QJs QTs KJs KTs not really sure about offsuited broadway gappers maybe KQo.

midpairs 77-JJ i think would float the flop and fold the turn, then i would ask to myself what hands he bluff in this turn or semibluff with, i guess AK with Ad.

i would 3b the standard 3x, is it 3x+1BB a tell from you?, second i would bet smaller the flop.

since both of you are deep i think hands like 78s+ plays better given the spr, or QJs or TJs. As played and given his stats i would call trying to think in hands like QQ AK with a diamond. but if i had control of the pot and he reraise me the turn (thinking that i could made the pot smaller) i would try to go for showdown or fold on the river.
Not sure I'm with you about everything.

Why would we exclude 33-55 but keep in QJs QTs KJs KTs in their range? Surely a Villain wise enough to fold the smallest pairs would fold these dominated hands to a 3bet OOP, no? Also, even a somewhat thinking player might decide to call the 3bet with a small pp with massive implied odds which is still way better than calling with dominated hands. Not sure in any universe we'd exclude the pairs but keep the dominated hands

Against a tight opponent we'd definitely leave out all of these hands but vs this one? What we know about Villain although not everything is useful is that he's loose and passive (given the gap between VPIP and PFR), cbets a lot, folds to cbet about 45% of the time so floats a little, steals a lot, we've seen him donk flop with TP and has only 3bet 1 out of 47 times.

As for the 3x+1BB I would only do it for extra value when isolating a fishy player who isn't paying attention and especially when I think their range is strong enough to call. Versus everyone else I use the standard 3x. So sure, good regs may pick up on this but they won't be involved in the hand anyway and it won't be done against them.

One thing I really don't agree with is c-betting smaller on the flop. Why would you do that? It goes against your (correct) reasoning that pairs like 77-JJ would call the flop and fold the turn. If they'd call the flop, wouldn't we want to get max value? Wouldn't we also want to get max value from a K? I am on board with not betting pot size because then a thinking player may not call (a fish would) but betting 2/3 pot seems very appropriate especially with a flush draw on the board.

I didn't get the part about him reraising the turn and you going for showdown of folding on the river. That can't happen because they have already shoved. Maybe I misunderstood what you meant.
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Old 03-13-2017, 03:00 AM   #4
oc33rF
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Re: Barreling when flush comes

Quote:
Originally Posted by AntonioQuina View Post
Not sure I'm with you about everything.

Why would we exclude 33-55 but keep in QJs QTs KJs KTs in their range? Surely a Villain wise enough to fold the smallest pairs would fold these dominated hands to a 3bet OOP, no? Also, even a somewhat thinking player might decide to call the 3bet with a small pp with massive implied odds which is still way better than calling with dominated hands. Not sure in any universe we'd exclude the pairs but keep the dominated hands
is about performance given the postflop spr ,suited connected and suited gappers perform better deep stack. a "wise enough" villain knows that calling pairs oop is burning money (if his intention is just set minning), you dont have 140bb after the 3bet+ neither 175bb+ to make that a profitable call if he is capable of doing that then is not so "wise". if you think that he has massive implied odds then you could also say that you are exploitable in any 3bet you make, so maybe is wise by calling with any pp.

i believe he would open pp in this spot not sure about calling 3bets that's my point but that comes down in what is his style and intention calling 3bets against specific opponents, in this case you.

sometimes i choose my 3bet calling range based on my opponent postflop action.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AntonioQuina View Post
As for the 3x+1BB I would only do it for extra value when isolating a fishy player who isn't paying attention and especially when I think their range is strong enough to call. Versus everyone else I use the standard 3x. So sure, good regs may pick up on this but they won't be involved in the hand anyway and it won't be done against them.
well first you can't asume someone is not paying attention everyone has different reasons for their gamestyle. and he has 130 hands with you i guess he atleast have an idea of your game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AntonioQuina View Post
One thing I really don't agree with is c-betting smaller on the flop. Why would you do that? It goes against your (correct) reasoning that pairs like 77-JJ would call the flop and fold the turn. If they'd call the flop, wouldn't we want to get max value? Wouldn't we also want to get max value from a K? I am on board with not betting pot size because then a thinking player may not call (a fish would) but betting 2/3 pot seems very appropriate especially with a flush draw on the board.

I didn't get the part about him reraising the turn and you going for showdown of folding on the river. That can't happen because they have already shoved. Maybe I misunderstood what you meant.
it's about a pot control in most of your hands, overplay premiums with low spr on the flop is just a bad idea to me, unless you really know your villain and since in this stakes most of the times we dont really know them (1k 2k hands+). you also have to think in protect the value of your hands, or would you bluff the same size here?.

what i meant about the turn is taking another line since the flop (bet sizing).

but what i really really mean is that i like to make the real value bet on the river. because most of the times i have a better approach there (not saying is bad to build a pot with premiums sometimes but keeping the control most of the times) also sometimes i choose to check some turns, so if for example the opponent is a station that could missread his hand and try to bluff the river or he actually made a really good hand i can afford to call a reasonable bet not a shove.
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Old 03-13-2017, 04:55 AM   #5
Ron!n
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Re: Barreling when flush comes

Just to comment on a few things while scanning through posts: I most definitely think think guy has 33 and 55 in his range after preflop, being a little deeper and a 30vpip player. Also for him sets are easy shove on turn cause you pretty much have one flush here in AQd if you even 3bet that.

3b a little bigger pre against this guy is fine. 10bb is very standard for me and I might go bigger against this guy.

I think both bet turn and check behind turn have their merits but I would mostly bet/fold against regs. I would have bet flop and turn a little smaller though to get calls from sticky QQ/JJ/TT and stuff like that. Against this guy it's a little though cause we have no idea if he shoves stuff like KQ here, even if it is the Qd. I'm leaning towards making his range a bit stronger than the one OP gave and finding a fold, but since it's micro's and this guy seems more loose than our average player I think a call is probably not a bad play.
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Old 03-15-2017, 08:15 PM   #6
spt28
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Re: Barreling when flush comes

A few observations:

This is a player with stats of 30/20/2. Trying to put V on some kind of rational range and arguing over whether it should include 33 and 55 is not likely to be a productive exercise. There's a reg who plays at the same tables as me who has stats that look like this independently of what position he's in, which likely means that he would open a wide range of suited connectors under the gun. But regardless, a player who opens that wide but virtually never 3-bets probably does not really know what he is doing. The range analysis is almost certainly meaningless. Those stats look to me like a player who loves to passively chase draws.

The 2% PFR is interesting, however, even with the small number of hands making confidence intervals pretty wide. This is not a player who likes to play re-raises for anything other than value. Which means that this is likely a value bet, V thinks he's stronger than you and wants you to call. The pertinent questions are: what does V think is strong, what does he think you are holding and has he even given a second's thought to what hands you might call him with? If we run with the assumption that this is a value bet, and ask your question, "could he do this with a king?", then rationally the answer is no. There is virtually no hand that KQ could extract value from here, since nothing weaker can realistically call. I think it's still possible that he might have a king, but it's based on the hypothesis that he doesn't know what he's doing, not that he's trying to bluff you off a stronger hand. Players who are scared of bluffing PF don't normally turn into bluff fetishists on the turn when facing a scary board.

Also take a look at your double-barreled bet. Your second barrel alone is giving V implied odds on his flop call of 4.8:1 even without your shove call, which is better than the 4.2:1 odds of completing a flush draw on the turn. This would make calling with a flush draw profitable for him regardless of anything else that might happen. It's also worth noting that when facing a 7BB call into a 14.5BB pot preflop, your two barrels are giving him implied odds of 5.64:1, so he would only need to be able to extract a 1/6th pot value bet on the river to make set mining look attractive. This is a V who is playing 30% of hands: he's going to be chasing a lot of draws and your hard betting on the turn gives him better implied odds on his earlier decisions. You want to make players who love to draw pay to do so before they see cards, not afterwards.
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Old 03-20-2017, 04:36 AM   #7
Team_Josh122
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Re: Barreling when flush comes

I think checking the turn is best. When the 4d comes we are only getting 2 streets of value max. When we check back the turn we take away the c/r and we can call missed draws on river,while we get value from checks on river as well.
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Old 03-20-2017, 11:21 PM   #8
La Onza
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Re: Barreling when flush comes

check the turn behind

as played, fold to his turn check-raise
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Old 04-01-2017, 10:58 AM   #9
AntonioQuina
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Re: Barreling when flush comes

Another hand where the flush comes but this time we have a stronger holding.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 36 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
MP: 101 BB (VPIP: 17.02, PFR: 10.64, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 48)
MP+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
MP+2: 100 BB (VPIP: 15.40, PFR: 13.20, 3Bet Preflop: 3.06, Hands: 919)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
BTN: 97.6 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
Hero (SB): 104.2 BB
BB: 40.2 BB
UTG: 69.8 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 100.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 3)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K A

UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 2 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 7 BB

Flop: (21 BB, 2 players) 7 Q T
Hero bets 10.8 BB, BTN calls 10.8 BB

Turn: (42.6 BB, 2 players) J
Hero bets 28.6 BB, BTN calls 28.6 BB

River: (99.8 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero checks, BTN bets 35 BB, Hero calls 35 BB


On the flop we c-bet with a gutshot and 2 overcards planning to barrel the turn if they don't fold to the c-bet when any of those cards hits.

On the turn the J comes completing our straight but also completing a potential flush. Given that Villain's range has many other hands other than flushes we continue firing for value planning to reevaluate river if we get called. If we get raised, it kind of sucks but most Villains won't raise a flush here to allow me to continue betting on the river.

The river card is terrible because even if they didn't have a flush they may have one now. Given the size of the pot and the pot odds, we only need to win 21% of the time to justify a call. We could be behind when Villain bets but after our check Villain might have decided to bet a set of two pair. I would definitely be folding sets, two pairs here without second thoughts but a straight is on the top end of our range so wasn't sure what the correct play was. Thoughts?
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