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Arp - Turning our Hand Into a Bluff Arp - Turning our Hand Into a Bluff

07-29-2014 , 06:35 AM
Villain is a NL 100 Reg and wins 1.2bb/100 at that stake

WWSF: 44%

WTSD: 21%

W$SD: 59%

Cbet by street: 70 - 47 - 45

Aggr by street: 46 - 35 - 23

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $72.25 (144.5 bb)
BB: $45.20 (90.4 bb)
UTG+1: $26.91 (53.8 bb)
UTG+2: $27.61 (55.2 bb)
MP1: $58.51 (117 bb)
MP2: $54.86 (109.7 bb)
MP3: $53.08 (106.2 bb)
Hero (CO): $57.76 (115.5 bb)
BTN: $93.64 (187.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q J
3 folds, MP2 raises to $1.50, MP3 folds, Hero calls $1.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($3.75) 8 J Q (2 players)
MP2 bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.75) 3 (2 players)
MP2 bets $6.25, Hero calls $6.25

River: ($21.25) 3 (2 players)
MP2 bets $14.25, Hero raises to $47.51 and is all-in,

Don't think calling is an option.

On the river, his range looks a lot like AA-KK, T9s, 88, AQ, and KT.

We have the best blockers in the world, and even with 88, he should have a hard time calling.

What do you think of it? Good or bad spot to rip it in?
Arp - Turning our Hand Into a Bluff Quote
07-29-2014 , 06:49 AM
I don't like it. I'm snapping with 88 here as villain.
Arp - Turning our Hand Into a Bluff Quote
07-29-2014 , 07:43 AM
Why is calling not an option? Because his range here is AA/KK exclusively?

What about raising the turn?

Why would he fold 88 on the river? Are you really flatting QQ,JJ that often PF in CO vs MP2?

Overall, I think you will get AA/KK to fold here a fair amount of the time but I would not really expect him to fold 88 here ever and even T9 is probably calling here more often than folding. QQ,JJ obv calls every time.
Arp - Turning our Hand Into a Bluff Quote
07-29-2014 , 08:08 AM
Why bluff raise a hand near the top of your range ?
Arp - Turning our Hand Into a Bluff Quote
07-29-2014 , 09:02 AM
what? did you turn your hand into a bluff or what?
Arp - Turning our Hand Into a Bluff Quote
07-29-2014 , 09:55 AM
It's worth noting that since he's playing lower, he's more likely to call because it may feel like a lot less and "lol 50nl players play bad" (no offense, of course). If he usually played 25nl, it's a lot better.

Despite that ridiculous tidbit. I think bluffing here is damn optimistic.
Arp - Turning our Hand Into a Bluff Quote
07-29-2014 , 10:01 AM
I see what your doing here, cant say if its good or bad.
Arp - Turning our Hand Into a Bluff Quote
07-29-2014 , 10:05 AM
I think it's pretty bad tbh. You would basicly need to turn all worse hands into bluffs to be consistent and then we're just bluffing way to wide. You have nice blockers, but thats basicly always the case with really strong hands..
Arp - Turning our Hand Into a Bluff Quote
07-29-2014 , 01:18 PM
Gross river. Sexy idea, but I dunno if you can move V off the hands you think you can
Arp - Turning our Hand Into a Bluff Quote
07-29-2014 , 10:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by .isolated
It's worth noting that since he's playing lower, he's more likely to call because it may feel like a lot less and "lol 50nl players play bad" (no offense, of course). If he usually played 25nl, it's a lot better.

Despite that ridiculous tidbit. I think bluffing here is damn optimistic.
How come? I rep so strong here. I really don't get how villain will have an easy time calling with T9 and 88 otr.
Arp - Turning our Hand Into a Bluff Quote
07-29-2014 , 11:32 PM
We went over this before when a guy was repping four combos and that was just too little to fold to. Here you're repping 6-9 combos. When he has 88 you're repping 6 combos and some of those combos are 3-betting preflop. I just don't see a fold happening here often enough if he has better.
Arp - Turning our Hand Into a Bluff Quote

      
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