Serious question. I keep getting in these spots and am reluctant to folding this hand. What can he have ? His range is so thin here for raising.


Pacific $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1850463
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $21.50 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 9, 3B: 6, AF: 3.5, Hands: 1874
SB: $59.47 - VPIP: 53, PFR: 12, 3B: 2, AF: 2.0, Hands: 184
BB: $50.00 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 6, 3B: 2, AF: 1.4, Hands: 3710
UTG: $51.59 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 15, 3B: 3, AF: 3.2, Hands: 1423
UTG+1: $56.44 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 9, 3B: 4, AF: 4.3, Hands: 5189
UTG+2: $53.20 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 6, 3B: 2, AF: 2.1, Hands: 3505
Hero (MP1): $87.96 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 15, 3B: 4, AF: 3.2, Hands: 122809
MP2: $73.63 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 1.7, Hands: 114
CO: $33.65 - VPIP: 61, PFR: 2, 3B: 0, AF: 2.7, Hands: 106

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with A A
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, CO calls $1.50, 2 folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.75) Q J 5 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.56, CO calls $3.56, BB calls $3.56

Turn: ($15.43) 4 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8.50, CO raises to $28.59, BB folds, Hero calls $20.09

River: ($72.61) 3 (2 players)

Yes, you are an idiot.

His range for raising is likely QJs, QJo, 54s, 55 and 44. I don't think it matters too much that this range is small, because aren't all raising for value ranges small, since most hands don't fit most boards.

Yeah, for once I agree with Pokie. Your average micro/small stakes reg is probably not goofing around once he raises the turn into two players. He likely has it here and you should mostly always just fold in the absence of reads.

See, just like you, I'm a good player too! :-D

Also the reraisers range can easily include QQ and JJ because he doesn't raise much pre-flop, so basically, when he repops you, you're crushed! :-D

I don't think he can have 44, but based on the story that he's shortstacked, I can place KQ and AQ in his range easily. And also based on your calculation that he doesn't raise much preflop, he can have KK and AA too. So, let's stove it:


Board: Qh Js 4h 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.556% 54.44% 01.11% 1078 22.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 44.444% 43.33% 01.11% 858 22.00 { JJ+, 55, AQs, KQs, QJs, 54s, AQo, KQo, QJo }
So, I beg to differ your affirmation that we are crushed. But what I DO want is arguments why he would not be raising KQ/AQ here (basically I Am putting him all in on any river and he probably knows that and otherwise he ships the river so why not here?)

I agree that he couldn't have 44, that was a mistake on my part.

He doesn't have AA and KK because he does raise SOME hands pre-flop, (i.ie these hands). He's a shortie so he's not going to let someone hit an Ace on a Ace high board and out-flop his KK if he flats.

As for him having AQ or KQ, he doesn't raise these hands in a 3way pot on the turn, he calls with these hands and then most likely calls the river with them too.

Easy game.

More opinions pls

You've had two already and they both confirm that you are an idiot, plus you also think there is a slight chance you are one too, else you wouldn't have posted this thread. :-D

What did the fish have? 55?

He's a fish lol. Not a good reg. look at his stats. He probably even shows up with KThh.

against these stats?
calling all the night with an overpair on a dry board.

if he had vpip <30 and his play looked reasonable, it would be a snap fold

Surely you should be calling an all-in with an overpair on a wet board rather than a dry one?

This is because on the wet board, in addition to strong made hands it's possible that the villain could be jamming draws, that with one card to come, we're well ahead of.

On a dry board however, there are no draws to shove, only sets...

this depends

66/2 not enough for me to say fold or call ott tbh

if hes never folding post like some of them do then im not folding cuz his range is super wide and he prob over values kq/aq etc... if hes folding alot then ide assume his raise ott is strong like aq+ and im folding... 100 hands vs someone playing 60% of hands is going to give a very good indication of how they would react post as well.....

Okay, I'm still not very convinced but I should have atleast thought longer. Villain had JJ

I think it's played ok. The villain is an idiot. He has worse here often enough. I'm not fistpump calling but I'm also not folding either.

Makes me lol at the amount of people who insta put a 60 Vpip fish on sets because he shoves his shortstack on the turn.