10NL Full ring

Hero – BTN – 150bb
V – BB – 215bb (only 10 hands recorded, not posting stats)

Hero has K A

5 folds, CO bets 3BB, Hero calls, fold, BB calls.

Flop (3 players, 9.5bb) 8 Q T

BB checks, CO bets 3bb, Hero raises to 6.5bb, BB calls, CO calls.

Turn (3 players 29bb) 9

BB checks, CO bets 5bb, hero ???

My notes:
I was going to up it to 7x then decided to flat mostly to vary my play. I had consistently 3x opened all hands or 3bet 7x. Kept it mechanical.
On the turn, I'm 11:1 to hit a J on the river, getting 6:1 (7:1 if BB calls too) plus I'm assuming at least another half a river pot because I honestly assumed one of the V's had a Q or K high straight.
However, technically I would be 16:1 if I assume at least 1 V is holding a J right?

Thanks

I don't think this is the right spot to flat a CO open, you just give the blinds incentive to come along. Not sure what raising the flop accomplishes? I probably call the flop and be done unimproved, I may just fold flop seeing as it's multiway..

I agree in not seeing what the flop raise accomplishes. I think it's too small to do much of anything? Floating seems fine for this bet size.

The turn is almost entirely about the Bb. It's a shame you don't have more stats in this spot. Otherwise getting 7:1 now (29bb + 5bb bet even wilt bb) it's easy to justify the call with your implied odds from a river J. I would be more worried about the check raise from the BB.

Regarding you assuming a single dead jack. In this scenario don't we take our board plus hand, one jack plus one irrelevant plus two irrelevant cards.or 52-4-2-1-2 or 41:3. Or just under 14:1. If you are going to make this assumption though, I also question your point about only getting half a river size pot for value. If the river comes a jack does their hand not become more face up? The King likely still value bets a board that looks like a chop, letting you raise easily. Conversely checks let you try and squeeze value out of desperate choppers. Maybe this works out as half a pot overall, I'm not sure.

It's an interesting hand, I'd likely expect a check raise from bb although co seems like a donk from bet sizing on this board so it might be worth taking the flat on the turn, to risk getting him big on the river.

Interested in your thoughts.

Forgot to mention I also like a 3b pre.

I think you had to think ahead more when flatting your AKo

how do you extract more value flatting AK?
by flatting you gave the BB an easy call so you had take in BB probably calling making it a 3 way pot.

what are you going to do when you hit/miss or get a draw on the flop?

if you want to bluff on the flop it has to be way bigger, you dont really give the CU any reason to fold here.

on the Turn i think its a fold. Like Bendy said BB could go for a RR and blow all your equity.
Even if he just calls and a Jack falls, will you get much action on a board where there is 8 9 10 j q? Maybe someone with a K but you with you having 1 in your hand it makes it unlikely.

It seems to me like you are not correctly calculating equity and pot odds. You are saying you 3b to 7bb, which is a little over 2x original raise. Adding up the pot we get 11.5bb, and OR needs to call 4bb. This means he pays 4bb to win 15.5bb, which means he needs an amazingly low 26% equity to call. Your flop size has the same problem, try to calculate it yourself using the above as a template.