Hey all,

good as played?
I´m not sure about my 4bet size and if calling might be better?
Villains 3bet in MP is 2%, other stats below


888 Poker - $0.30 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 38 BB (VPIP: 11.04, PFR: 9.57, 3Bet Preflop: 7.01, Hands: 3,693)
MP+2: 190.07 BB (VPIP: 28.77, PFR: 13.70, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 73)
CO: 142 BB (VPIP: 31.04, PFR: 25.97, 3Bet Preflop: 12.17, Hands: 340)
Hero (BTN): 156.4 BB
SB: 46.7 BB (VPIP: 43.75, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 101.4 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 16.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 80)
UTG+1: 102.4 BB (VPIP: 15.22, PFR: 14.03, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 337)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 14.30, PFR: 11.12, 3Bet Preflop: 4.91, Hands: 957)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, MP raises to 9 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 9 BB, fold, Hero raises to 40.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP raises to 100 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 59.5 BB

Flop: (213.5 BB, 2 players) A 5 8

Turn: (213.5 BB, 2 players) T

River: (213.5 BB, 2 players) J

Full ring, 4betting to that massive 4.5x sizing when MP 3bets UTG to me is lighting money on fire. Even in 6max, I'd make it ~30 bb and even then only from the blinds. On the BTN, 28.5bb or so accomplishes pushing out the blinds and isolating.

I don't think calling is a bad play either with the intention of backraising if maybe you get a cold call from SB/BB, UTG 4bets, MP folds. Then you can GII vs. KK and still be happy about it given the overlay in the pot.

When you 4bet that big, you force him to have QQ+ when he ships it. You do put QQ/JJ in a tough spot, true, but he'll also have equal number (12) combinations of AQs/AQo that can no longer call. So you fold out the same number of hands that beat you as the ones that you crush (if he folds JJ/QQ), and isolate yourself vs. hands that have you crushed.

What he said ^

Yep, makes sense.
TY

a guy with 2% 3bet is just a nitzilla. Expect AA/KK/QQ always. He is probably folding QQ to a 4bet / shove a lot of the time too. I dont mind flatting this hand pre.

also by 4 betting this big we are committed.

lets say villain stacks off with QQ+,AK which is 2.6 % (approx half the total 5% 3 bet of villains stat)

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.824% 18.14% 20.68% 78295380 89232168.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 61.176% 40.50% 20.68% 174740892 89232168.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

so half the time villain folds and we win 13.5 BB
other half time he stacks off and we get it in with 38% equity which comes to -24BB ev(according to my calculations which may be wrong. please if someone can verify it will be great)

so overall the move looks like -10.5 BB ev

please feel free to point out any errors I may have made in calculations

With these assumptions, my math looks like this:
1. Assume that our raise preflop to 40BB is effectively a shove
1. Assume that we have 50% FE when we shove
2. Assume our equity when called is 38% (giving villain a range of QQ+, AKo, AKs)

EV = 0.5(13.5BB) + 0.5(0.38 * 113BB - (0.62*100BB))
EV = -12BB

Please comment on any error that you see.

If hands were switched and hero was KK and villian AK any change to pre actions? Im a learner, thx.

I call the 3bet.

Last thing I'd add, the value of having QQ+/AK on the BTN is that your range is perceived to be widest there. That's the only position you're really going to be 3-betting to isolate someone with speculative hands, maybe the CO as well, that's it.

If you raise to 27-28.5bb, you're creating a perfect setup for MP/UTG to stack off lighter. Players don't like calling 3bets out of position, so you create room for them to convince themselves that a hand like AQ is good and they might shove into you. Rather than flatting and then being forced to x/f when they brick the flop with AQ, or see overcards with tens or jacks, then open themselves up to being bluffed off their hand. Their mentality is more 4-bet or fold preflop.

If they 4bet shove with AQ/QQ/TT/JJ vs. your bet sizing (a bold BTN iso-raise/steal), you're going to have 55.24% equity against that portion of their range. Adding KK/AA/AK back in, now you're 49.18% vs. TT+,AQs+,AQo+.

Whereas when you 3bet to 40bb, then they're only 4bet shoving KK/AA/AK against which you're GII with only 37.06% equity.

We want to manipulate these ranges in our favor, and being on the BTN helps with that. Maybe they'll just stick with an inelastic stackoff range regardless and they just won't GII with AQ, but when you raise it to 40% of your stack, it wastes the advantage of appearing to be on a steal. It's just clear you woke up with a big hand on the button and not just stealing, so you let your opponent play perfectly by shoving KK and folding worse. Just raise it to the standard 3x-3.3x sizing. It's not like a limper situation and you want to disincentivize multiple callers. UTG is handcuffed. He can't really call because MP could 4bet, and if UTG folds, MP isn't going to be happy just flatting either.

So that's the other important larger point I see in 6max/FR play.

I don't like the raise. I would either fold or just call.

I 4 bet to 21bbs. I think any bigger is over kill.