This hand is part of my PG&C thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...monds-1622428/


Exercise
Vilain is Nit 13/8 and careful postflop, regular player.
I am playing around 22/18, c-beting wide.

Based on the action, what is his range?

I will post the result tomorrow.

Do you have any 3bet and fold to Cbet stats ?

After the flop I'd say his range is basically all pocket pairs, A3s, and some big broadway combos.

Alright,

i think this is an interesting spot and i used CR-EV for this one.

Please everybody check my ranges and assumptions,

thank you!


I tried to construct a reasonable range considering that we don´t know anyting about Villains 3bet and c-bet Flop tendencies.

PF calling range:



I weighted some Hands like AKs etc.. because we don´t know if Villain 3bets them pre.


Flop calling range:



This is what Villains range can look like (in Terms of hand strenght) when he calls the Flop.

Assumptions:

- Villain calls 100% of his overpairs (imo Villain won´t raise Hands like QQ-66)
- Villain slowplays sets 70% (assumption, depends on Villain how often he raises a set on that board)
- Villain floats 40% of the time with his AK, AQ Hands
- Villain always calls with 33 (oesd)

Conclusion:

So, Overall 60% of Villains Hands are Overpairs and sets.
The rest is AK, AQ Floating.




Let´s say Hero bets the turn:

Yes we have potential Showdown-value and we beat 66, but AK, AQ got 10outs vs our Hand (2 overcards and a gutshot --> 33) and we have 2 Outs vs 88-TT.
What is our line if Villain bets 40-50c on the Turn?
What is Villains range for doing that? AK, AQ floats that missed the turn (not always but often enough) + sets and overpairs --> bad spot to c/c imo because almost no River improves our Hand and we are OOP facing agression.


Villains Turn calling range:



You can see the %es of folding (56%), calling (26%) an raising (just sets) for Villains range on the flop (left) and turn (yea i know villains MP2 not MP1, doesn´t matter......) when we bet.


Assumptions --> weighted Scenario:

- I assumed that Villain folds 70% of his PP between JJ and 55 --> 30% calls with 66-TT.
- I also assumed that Villain folds 80% of his highcards like AK, AQ --> 20% calls.

Best case Scenario:

- So if we assume that Villain folds 100% of his mid pockets and missed floats he Overall folds 72% to a turn bet.

..........this is why i like a turn bet!

Conclusion:
I´d bet 40c on the turn because Villain folds often enough.
b/f > c/f > c/c





As played:

I have a hard time constructing a range for Villains 10c bet on the turn.
This is just strange.
I´d guess something like 88-TT because AK,AQ would bet the river?
Really strange.............

PF: I'd say any pp lower then QQ... (Although not sure he would 3bet QQ actually), 67s+, KJs+, AQo+, Axs maybe. E

Flop: pp, Ax, 67s, perhaps the A6s.

Turn + River: Same as above?

FINAL RESULT