5NL FR: Set on reasonably dry board OOP

[Atirez]

Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $5.98 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 86
SB: $4.13 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 7, AF: 2.0, Hands: 85
Hero (BB): $9.24 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 17, 3B: 4, AF: 2.0, Hands: 52740
UTG: $5.07 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 8, 3B: 2, AF: 1.1, Hands: 501
UTG+1: $2.07 - VPIP: 12, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 7.0, Hands: 93
MP: $12.44 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 7, 3B: 2, AF: 1.0, Hands: 308
CO: $2.30 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 153

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BB with 8 8
2 folds, MP raises to $0.20, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.42) 6 2 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.02) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks

River: ($1.02) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.73, MP raises to $2.56, Hero calls $1.83

Just wanted to make sure I played this alright. The villain is pretty nitty so I think he has a good tight range preflop so I think I can get paid well if I hit a set here.

Flop is not the best as it misses most of his KX/AX hands so I decide to check call with the intention of check raising the turn. As if he bets the turn he is likely to have overpairs to the board and we can get stacks in.

Check back on the turn I'm now thinking I am not going to get much money as he can have low PP or AK/AQ type hands. In retrospect this river isn't great and it wasnt until he raised me that I realised it. My bet was to look like I was stealing the pot and hoping to get looked up by weak 1 pair hands and AK although I probably bet too much.

After the raise I did actually think about folding here, as he can have 99 here. But this is lower limits and he may have just spazzed what looks like a steal on the river - no reads though so that wasnt great thinking.

Thoughts?

[Atirez]

Sorry some extra thoughts. I am not really sure why he is raising the flop here as what can I have on this board after the turn is checked that is going to call that size raise. Not really sure what the villain is thinking my range is here?

[therightdeal]

If you think you can get paid well here why do you check the turn rather than building the pot?

I would donk this flop for close to pot and again on the turn. I'm hoping he has JJ+ and can't fold on this board.

[Atirez]

Originally Posted by therightdeal

If you think you can get paid well here why do you check the turn rather than building the pot?

I would donk this flop for close to pot and again on the turn. I'm hoping he has JJ+ and can't fold on this board.

Paid well if an A or K hits on the flop, he is likely to bet hard flop and turn. With this flop I checked the turn to give him chance to bet again with his over pairs if he has them or bluff.

Should I be betting out here against this villain when the flop has missed most of his range?

[therightdeal]

Personally I would start trying to build the pot on the flop and as I said hope he has 99+. He could peel the flop with Ax, but I'm looking to get paid when I hit my set so I start to build the pot. I think this guy will peel plenty of flops of Ax.

I don't think the check on the flop is horrible (I would still donk though), because its likely to have missed villain unless he does have a PP, but I absolutely hate the check on the turn. Once it goes check check on the flop you definitely need to bet close to pot on the turn.

[cheese]

I would probably lead this flop. Sometimes I might check-raise it small. What are your opponent's continuation bet stats like? Do they have any tendencies when bet into after they raise pre? How would they likely respond to a small checkraise?


On the river, I would sigh and call.

Random idea, does anyone have any thoughts on betting even bigger on this river? A lot of the hands opponent pays river off with are overpairs. The problem with this, as far as I can tell, is that there aren't many draws in OP's percieved range, unless OP has an image of frequently calling from the blinds with suited one gappers or something.

[krooku]

You got 300 hands on him, what is his cb flop? cb turn?

I would x/c flop, lead turn if his cb flop is reasonable high, lead flop if it's low (<60%).

As played I'm gonna pop it up otr as only 3 combinations beat you (99). No straights at all in his range. He may play like this with a set, 89, weird slowplayed overpair and some pure bluffs (after x/x turn he might put you on steal otr). Cooler if he had 99.

[retroguy]

yeah why no raise on the river?

[donkey_bonker]

His preflop raising range is something like 77+, AK, AQ; although after 300 hands you might be able to widen or narrow that based on his positional tendencies (it would be relevant if you knew that he could open 66 or 44 from there and likes to be tricky with sets). 99 is all that beats you, and there's no reason for him to check 99 on the turn on this board. So really, nothing beats you, but at the same time, nothing calls your river raise (assuming that he also doesn't check TT+ on the turn). It would be very relevant if you had a read or could tell from his stats that b/c/b was a standard value line from him.

Re-raising him on the river is only really an option if he can't hand read at all, since with this board, you obviously have a set to be re-raising on this river (or possibly 98s). Unless you know he can't fold overpairs even when he knows he's beat. Dammit. All of this is really, really villain dependent. Realistically, it's more likely to be a weirdly played underset or overpair, and in game, I'd re-raise someone I didn't have reads on, just because people suck at folding, and his value range is 3 combos (99) versus about 36 that lose to you (TT+,44,66).

[Atirez]

No reads at this point but he has an Aggression of 1 and cbet of 80%.

After the cbet I put him on over cards and PPs, and didn't raise because I was hoping a AKQJ would come on the turn. After he checks back the flop he has air PP below high card he could check back 99/TT here as well but now I think I'm not really getting any value.

The river 9 on makes 99 the he can't have many if any 89 hands and 9T etc is just going to call as is TT he is very passive.

After the raise I put him on 99 and I nearly folded. But I told myself that there is only a few combos of that but the way the hand played out he could have that hand. JJ+ is betting the turn. Or at least should be.

So I did sigh call. I can't raise here I don't think cos he will only call with hands that beat me.

I think not betting the turn was probably a mistake but I thought most of his range has missed on the flop and the 44 is a brick unless he has that. Considering it more, he is never going to bluff bet the turn so I am not getting any more money that way cos he is too passive.

[Atirez]

Originally Posted by krooku

You got 300 hands on him, what is his cb flop? cb turn?

I would x/c flop, lead turn if his cb flop is reasonable high, lead flop if it's low (<60%).

As played I'm gonna pop it up otr as only 3 combinations beat you (99). No straights at all in his range. He may play like this with a set, 89, weird slowplayed overpair and some pure bluffs (after x/x turn he might put you on steal otr). Cooler if he had 99.

Is this a normal spot to raise the river then? Raising here makes me feel a little sick against this passive player. Even a passive player would bet the turn with TT+ right?

[Atirez]

Originally Posted by donkey_bonker

His preflop raising range is something like 77+, AK, AQ; although after 300 hands you might be able to widen or narrow that based on his positional tendencies (it would be relevant if you knew that he could open 66 or 44 from there and likes to be tricky with sets). 99 is all that beats you, and there's no reason for him to check 99 on the turn on this board. So really, nothing beats you, but at the same time, nothing calls your river raise (assuming that he also doesn't check TT+ on the turn). It would be very relevant if you had a read or could tell from his stats that b/c/b was a standard value line from him.

Re-raising him on the river is only really an option if he can't hand read at all, since with this board, you obviously have a set to be re-raising on this river (or possibly 98s). Unless you know he can't fold overpairs even when he knows he's beat. Dammit. All of this is really, really villain dependent. Realistically, it's more likely to be a weirdly played underset or overpair, and in game, I'd re-raise someone I didn't have reads on, just because people suck at folding, and his value range is 3 combos (99) versus about 36 that lose to you (TT+,44,66).

I thought the same about my river bet, was hoping he would call as it looked like a steal - perhaps a little too large on the bet size though.

I get what your saying about his raising range and I suppose I did have a bit of MUTB syndrome with the call. But in retrospect which of those hands is he realistically going to call a re-raise with? 44/66/99.

I think not betting the turn here is a massive mistake. Atleast then I can put him on 44/66 if he raises (I think passive players are calling here with over cards unless he can spew with AA) and then barrel the river if he calls fold to a raise because I don't think I am beating much at that point.

[krooku]

Really not much to talk about the river. You could flat his raise if you're absolutely sure he's not calling with a set - which is absurd. Just 3b it small otr to tempt him into calling and that's the game.

[Atirez]

Originally Posted by krooku

Really not much to talk about the river. You could flat his raise if you're absolutely sure he's not calling with a set - which is absurd. Just 3b it small otr to tempt him into calling and that's the game.

Whatt I want to find out is how much of a mistake is not betting the turn against a passive player and if that is a mistake then how much value am I losing on the river by not shoving in these spots?

If I bet the turn and he calls should I be bet folding the river or bet, raising all in. If he raises on the turn yeah I am fist pumping shove - ty for the monies.

As played I felt like I was beaten on the river and called simply because I had a set and was expecting to lose my money. But I can't fold a set on the river can I without reads.

[CMoreschi]

Hmm, interesting hand. Leading the turn after c/cing OTF looks super-aggro, even pretty bluffy, and might well induce a peel from worse, maybe even a raise (at which point, fistpump).

As played, on the river...<scratches head>. It's not massively logical for him to checked behind a worse set, but he might have put you on a weakish pp that he felt couldn't stand any more heat OTT, or perhaps he wanted to induce a bluff OTR. Possibly he was pot-controlling with 98 or playing an overpair weirdly. I mean, it makes almost no more sense for him to check behind 99 OTT than it does to check behind a set. Personally, I'm 3-betting the pants off of this river for fat value; putting him on 99 exclusively seems like way too much of a soul read.