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5NL FR: Busted draw on river 5NL FR: Busted draw on river

01-15-2017 , 07:57 PM
Weird action in this hand, either Villain had 66/T9 or he just picked me off bc my busted draw got made. Either way seems too strong for TP hand ... any thoughts?

888 Poker - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 22.62, PFR: 15.48, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 84)
MP: 101 BB (VPIP: 23.62, PFR: 15.45, 3Bet Preflop: 1.71, Hands: 345)
Hero (CO): 157 BB
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 15.48, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 85)
SB: 98.8 BB (VPIP: 20.83, PFR: 14.58, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 49)
BB: 50 BB (VPIP: 15.14, PFR: 9.17, 3Bet Preflop: 2.86, Hands: 220)
UTG: 161.8 BB (VPIP: 30.66, PFR: 13.87, 3Bet Preflop: 4.65, Hands: 139)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Ah 9h
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3.4 BB, fold, SB calls 3 BB, fold

Flop : (7.8 BB, 2 players) 7d 8h Qd
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn : (7.8 BB, 2 players) 6h
SB bets 3.8 BB, Hero raises to 11.4 BB, SB calls 7.6 BB

River : (30.6 BB, 2 players) 6c
SB checks, Hero bets 15.2 BB, SB raises to 47 BB, fold
5NL FR: Busted draw on river Quote
02-01-2017 , 09:12 AM
Couldn't Villain have a few more hands in their range like 77, 88, 76s? The sets might have checked flop with the hopes of check-raising your c-bet given that you were the preflop aggressor. They could certainly have some Qx hands in their range but indeed, most of them would probably not call the turn raise. 76s would follow Villain's line.

When Villain calls the turn raise rather than re-raise it, and then check-raises the river the hand gets weird indeed. On one hand, a set seems a bit less likely because why wouldn't they want to go for stacks after you've re-raised them? Not many reasons unless they are afraid of you holding T9 or a higher set. On the other hand, Villain could be trapping hoping you'd bet river since you'd shown aggression, for fear of scaring you away.

76s would also probably just call the turn raise rather than re-raise.

Personally, I am not sure I'd bluff that river given Villain's call of your turn raise and their possible range of hands. Add to that the fact that you didn't c-bet which makes a lot of your holdings a lot less credible. Villain will never believe you had 77, 88 , QQ so basically there are only three hands from Villain's perspective that you may have: T9 and 66. Villain definitely has more than a single Q. A crazy thought would be Villain having a busted diamond draw but after you've shown so much aggression, how likely is it that they would raise river with that?
5NL FR: Busted draw on river Quote

      
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