Hi all, I was wondering if you could help me understand what is the best play in these kind of spots v this type of villains.

In my understanding he has 3 combos of AA and KK, 6 combos of QQ, and 12 combos of AKo, 2 combos of AKs - not giving him any bluffs. PokerStove says we have 38% equity against this range.

Is the calculation of my EV as simple as?:
Call and lose $3.44 * 62% = -$2.13
Call and win $7.11 * 38% = $2.70
EV = $0.57

Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $5.24 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 16, 3B: 3, AF: 1.9, Hands: 37937
UTG+1: $2.07 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 17, 3B: 13, AF: 0.0, Hands: 18
UTG+2: $5.09 - VPIP: 6, PFR: 4, 3B: 3, AF: 0.0, Hands: 82
MP1: $3.23 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 10, 3B: 2, AF: 1.4, Hands: 178
MP2: $9.06 - VPIP: 12, PFR: 11, 3B: 6, AF: 1.0, Hands: 185
CO: $5.13 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 48
BTN: $5.67 - VPIP: 32, PFR: 2, 3B: 7, AF: 3.5, Hands: 41
SB: $4.88 - VPIP: 7, PFR: 5, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 120
BB: $6.99 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 53

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with K A
Hero raises to $0.20, 3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.62, 4 folds, Hero raises to $1.80, MP2 raises to $9.06, 1 fold

I think you need to ask yourself what you think his 3betting range is (considering you're UTG and villain looks competent, his 3betting range is going to be narrower than 6). With that in mind, do you think it's a good idea to 4bet?..and after you 4 bet, what do you think his 5betting range is? Do you really think a 12/11 is 5betting AK and looking to get stacks in?

well played. You can be assured that this tight a player has AA in this spot nearly every time. They're not doing this with QQ- often enough to call them profitably.

Hero 4bet bluffed with AKo nearly 40bb of this stack...cant see anything that is well played tbh.

I'm not sure my 4bet is all that bad. This calculator I made could be a little off, but assuming he calls or 5 bet shoves with:
Call: QQ, AKs
Shove: KK+

If he is folding his two combos of AKs then my EV goes up.

Screen shot below, tell me if this is all wrong .



p.s. I turned my AKo to a bluff here because I felt I had fold equity to make it EV and if I did get a call I still have a lot of equity against his 4bet calling range.

Also, I was playing very loose and aggressive at this table. This looked like a player that perhaps could adjust and I had blockers. Is this always a bad play?

I dont get this...how can you calculate if a play is good or bad if you dont know the action in some spots...what if villain calls as you say...there is now way to determine the outcome of the hand EV wise cause we dont know what he is doing in certain spots...this stuff usually only works if we determine if a shove is good or bad.

If that's the case then great I can bin this when we are not all in. I was thinking that we could use this calculator as it calculates EV of the pot at the the point the bet is made. If we assume that both players either check to the river or play optimally post flop so that neither loses their equity, then this hopefully can calculate EV of this sem-bluff.

That may be complete tosh and if so I will be glad to know

Considering this hand, I do think that it was a mistake to use a 3bet calling hand as a bluff. If this is a +EV play against nits/or regs I should add hands like AQs, KQs to my bluffs and call with AK as my value range.

Obviously never doing this against a fish, also I understand this is 5NL but I am trying to understand the game and different players and understand the spots I get myself in to and try to understand the most +EV action. So that I get better.

oh well, it would be wp if hero just folded vs. Villain's 3bet.
given positions and how tight villain is, u can be pretty sure he is 3betting us pretty tight. His 6% 3bet is likely to be like 2% in this spot (and more in blinds positions).
u play it well when u take the most profitable (or less costy) decision, not if u find out what Villain has by putting 1/3 of your stack in and folding.
Btw the 4bet size is too big imho.
Also OP thinks Villain might be adjusting to hero loseness (quite unlikely given the player type), then if villain is shoving QQ and AK as well then folding is a mistake

This.

And this.

I would just fold to the 3bet, im really not worried about getting exploited by a 12/11 3betting my uTG opens.

4bet bluffing with AK is not good for various reasons.

I can understand why 4 bet bluffing with AK here is wrong, but I would assume we could at least call here? Are we only folding because he has position on us? Surely we have some equity?

I can understand people telling me not to do things, but explanations help me learn.

Thank you all for your input so far.

Regards.

I think he has QQ+ here because he is betting against your UTG raise. Your UTG raise represents strength and this 3 bet has to be at the top of his 6% range, QQ+ all which beat AK 1 on 1. It is a situation that a QQ+ range is likely to win 70% of the time or there about according to Pokerstove. Fold the 3bet, calling will put you in a tough situation where you are depending on either a K or an A to drop, cards that he may be holding anyway (AA/KK). -EV call.

For me calling a 3bet OOP with AK, especially against someone so tight is just gross. Most of the time we are going to miss the flop and basically just have to check/fold the theres the times we do hit an A or a K and the villain has QQ and maybe just puts a flop bet in and thats it and then theres the times we flop an Ace or King and we are dominated and lose our stack.

Just fold and on to the next hand. Guys like that just arnt going to be good enough to be exploiting you, not at this level anyway.