I have vilain at 20/18, 7,0% 3 bet and 83% flop cbet

I think he almost never has a Q here when he check call 2 streets. His range is probably mainly middle PP like 88-JJ or something like that. I think he also probably cbet AA/KK.

Open limper and SB seems to be weak opponents.

I definitely have some AQs, KQs, QJs, as well as some small PP and some SCs here in this pot, considering there is already a weak player involved.

Based on my assumptions, what do you think of my river bet? I mean, he shown some weakness on each street and he probably almost never has a A here, so it seems to be a very good card to barrel again. Betting 30$ he will need to fold a little more than 42% of the time.




Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $82.33
SB: $74.71
BB: $85.42
UTG: $60.13
UTG+1: $34.78
UTG+2: $40.22
MP1: $60.53
MP2: $56.50
CO: $67.04

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with 5 6
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, 1 fold, BB calls $1.50, UTG+2 calls $1.50

Flop: ($8.25) Q 6 Q (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $4, BB folds, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls $4

Turn: ($16.25) 7 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $11.50, MP2 calls $11.50

River: ($39.25) A (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $30.50

His range looks super strong to me the way he played. I mean im not sure he gets here with TT/JJ simply because your play is so strong especially it been multi way on the flop. I see KQ/QQ/AQ/66 and not very much else. I guess AA/KK but would he play them like this?

Hand looks really spewy to me.

Why would he slowplay a Q on a 4 way flop with 2 loose / weak players ?

I am not sure he is iso raising with 66, but anyway I have a blocker to it so there is only 1 combo of 66 left in the deck.

I make it like $13.50 or so on the turn then prob give up. That bit extra not only is a scarier bet in itself for JJ/TT type hands but also sets up a potentially bigger river bet.

Would be less surprised to see quads rather than 66 btw. One combo of each but QQ way more likely to play this way. Then again he could just be a station that can't fold JJ.

Because he flopped the stone cold nuts and wants someone to bet? Even so theres not much that AQ/KQ are afraid of and it looks like hes hoping you bet.

I defintely could have bet a little bigger OTT, but I think that my flop bet size could have induced call on later streets from non nutted hands. This is something I did not noticed at first, but this is a possibily.

Because he flopped a monster 4 ways and it's hard to get max value unless someone steps out of line. Even loose/weak players are going to be able to fold lots of their range if PFR just barrels 3 streets.

Also important to have some sense of how villain perceives you in these spots.

Yes if he has 66 or QQ I agree that he would likely take this line. Altought, we can't really put a 20/18 on only 2 combos.

4 combos of QQ or 66.

Plus the shed load of AQ, KQ combos.

Chances are a reg folds JJ and below OTT since your showing so much strength. V. can willingly "slow play" (he is more manipulating villians ranges, but what ever) KQ, AQ here since a bet-bet-shove line should fold out anything he beats. KQ here becomes a bluff catcher!

Because everyone plays straightforward in a multi-way pot. Except when they have a monster on a dry board. He knows no-one is calling the flop without an overpair, 66 or a Q. He holds either 66 or at least one of the Qs, action preflop suggests no-one has an overpair, so not much left that can call a bet. Best way to get money in is to induce.

2 combos.

I agree that he could slowplay here with AQ/KQ but with two weak/passive/loose players in the pot betting is much better and I would expect him to be weighted more towards TT/JJ or QQ/66 than AQ/KQ.

IMO,since he cbet 80%+,then he would probrably cbet JJ TT here,and if get called,it will be easy for him to make decision.

Thank you for your input

For those interested by the result :

1. I dont like pre...villain is pretty aggressive and 65s cant take a lot of heat. We mostly flop drawing type of hands and once we see a flop MW there is always the chance of someone having a better flush draw.

2. In general I think it is spewy simply for the reason that he did NOT fold JJ/TT...those are the hands you want him to fold obviously. So without having a read that villain is able to lay down hands those hands its a bad play. FWIW the river is a blank IMO...by betting that big it either looks like Qx/66 or total air. I mean...if you really did bluff with AJ you are not betting that big on the river cause you dont want to scare 99-JJ away.

3. What are your stats at zoom by the way? You are running 14/11/4 right (just checked my DB cause I think I know you)...at first I thought you are playing to much on the nitty site for villain to call but your WTSD% is only 11% and your aggression frequeny is around 45%...if thats really you this also tells me that you are very aggressive and that since you dont get to SD much people fold a lot vs you....given your preflop stats you will only have AQ or KQ and 66 in your range here...the rest is air...so I think its not a bad call on his side tbh.

Won't elaborate too much on my preflop stats, but 11% WTSD% is definitely screwed here. This stat take some time to be reliable. Depend a lot on your sample size but this is definitely far off. Because of sample sizes, vilain could have differents stats on me as well.

Also, do you expect me to have a lot of air here in this spot?