SB i have marked as a bad reg but don't recognize him. his stats are 16/9, 0.8% 3bet, 0% 4bet and 13% cold call 600~ hands. post flop i have his aggression % as 29/22/9.

my plan was to xback flop (because it really hit's his cold calling range JJ-AA? hard) and bet/fold turn/river.

i am posting this really to hear peoples thoughts on how to aproach a hand like this from the flop onwards? cbet/fold flop? etc

call turn and river, you hands underepped and they can vbet worse.

you should of bet that flop, alot fo draws etc are calling

I think given villians vpip/pfr gap, it would be reasonable to assume he will over adjust to the increased stack depth OOP and widen his cold calling range too much.

OTF @ at 100bb ~4.50 would be standard here. Keeping in mind our earlier assumption, at this stack depth, we should increase our sizing to ~6 with our entire betting range on this board texture.

Following that look to put in reasonably sized (but not huge) barrels OTT and OTR if called, with the plan being to b/f.


As played there's not much you can do other than call down.

do you really think he cold calls TJ, KT, KJ oop pre?

yeah i guess i put him on much tighter of a range pre.

i was planning to call river here but his sizing really made me sit up. honestly what i thought was that it's was the same as i have seen bad regs do time and again where they have the nuts and just bomb huge without thinking too much about anything but their own hand. i mean... my hand is way under-repped and i want to fold to that bet... after checking and seeing his river aggression was 9% it seems like a clear fold, no?

Given positions its highly unlikely that the SB range is wider than TT+/AK imo, afterall you 3bet an EP open so even though he is bad he probably recognizes that you are strong unless you have a very bluffy image(What is your image? Thats very important here).

I think checking back the flop is fine, its not like he calls with AK and may even fold JJ.

Call turn obviously but when he bets the river im not sure a player like this is capable of turning hands like JJ in to a bluff on the turn and river and this will always be a value line. If we decide to make a crying call we will see AA/QQ a ton imo.

I just don't see how we can fold once we check back. (especially if you agree he will have widened his preflop range)

There's too much risk that he sees a hand worse than ours to be the nuts, plus once we check back this can easily look like a really obvious bluff spot. We're not fist pump calling or anything, but I think folding is way too nitty.

Thats the bit i disagree with, i dont think a bad player is widening his range pre flop here but that could depend on Op`s image. At the end of the day though he has still seen an EP raise then a 3bet and the original raiser still to act after them, i actually think because of that my range estimation could still be on the loose side. (I guess we could get a read off his fold to 3bet stat as well)

I agree we probably have to call i just dont see this villain type having many bluffs when he bets the turn and river and given i dont see AQ in his range im not thinking that he thinks he is betting that hand for value.

yea i don't see how river can be a fold given how we've played the hand.

350bb deep this flop has to be a bet tho. hell, i'd even be betting it 100bb deep vs. a player who isn't likely to be great. this deep i can't see how his cold-call range pre is only JJ+/AK.

Your probably giving the Villain too much credit. If hes bad then its probable that he just plays his cards at face value rather than thinking because hes deeper he can call wider.

Whats your range for calling here facing an Ep open and MP 3bet and your in the SB with the original opener still to act? Im guessing not that wide right?

I think his cold calling range this deep is going to be significantly wider than if it was 100bb deep. Most people have some sort of grasp of implied odds even if they don't know the term. I wouldn't be surprised to see a cold call with most PPs and a lot of suited Aces.

I like the flop check back but once you do it you absolutely have to call down any donk bets IMO.

If we assume that villain has a basic understanding of implied odds and what not then we also have to assume he understands position as well dont we?

MartL, everything you have said is pretty much spot on to what i have been thinking about the hand haha.

everyone thinks differently so it's really hard to know if villain was playing the hand any differently because of the stack sizes.

to me it seems like he just bombs river large because he missed out on getting alot more money in on previous streets. i just don't think he bluffs river here very often, although this is just a feeling based on the reg type i thought he was.

a little more info on the hand is that he bet river pretty fast, and some chat;

hero said, "sick"
villain said, "fold"
hero said, "what you have?"
villain said, "sth"
hero said, "AQ?"
hero said, "show?"
villain said, "maybe yes maybe no"
villain said, "no show"
villain said, "just fold"

(i knew for sure he didn't have AQ, just wanted to gage a response.)

350bb deep? i think i would call wider in this spot than if we were 100bb deep and i was facing a single raise. even OOP i would love to flat hands like A5s, T8s etc and raise like every flop. simply coz villain's range is gonna be capped and he's not gonna be happy facing 3 large bets with any single pair hand when there's so much behind.

but i digress - what i would do is definitely not what villain is probably doing. and i really don't think i'm giving villain too much credit - a 16/9 isn't thinking much, yes i agree, but i still think he's gonna be thinking "herp derp 99/herp herp AQs/AJs i can flop a set/purr i cawl".

Easy fold once he chats like that!