villain running 26/18 after just 125 hands. Since about 30 hands ago. He has turned into a stion after tyaking a few beats he could have got away from and I feel he is tilting and trying too hard to trap peeps.

I'm running 21/18 at this table and have been caught in a few small bluffs. but not recently.

When he calls my Cbet. I put him squarly on a J. and he checked turn so fast that I felt sure he had Jx..

Am I betting this river? If so, how much? Or am I inviting a C/R here?


$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($22.68)
UTG+1 ($63.35)
Hero (CO) ($164.66)
BTN ($17.47)
SB ($99.50)
BB ($35.55)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is CO A Q
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold

Flop: J 8 4 ($3.50, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB calls $2

Turn: J ($7.50, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: 6 ($7.50, 2 players)
SB bets $4, Hero ??????

Get the monies innnn

make it 14. Call a regular 3 bet or fold to a shove

if villain is on tilt... he will not necessarily have a J. He could easily be floating with absolutely anything at all. His check on the turn confirms this imo. On the river he has a small holding, I would make a small raise for value.

Anyone think he'd call a shove here with a J?

Edit: Didn't realize stack sizes, nm. I pop it to $20

Edit #2: Reason being your flush draw was well concealed.

easy value raise. if he 3 bets it's mostly a fold, but I could see calling depending on betsize/timing.

I am certainly calling if he shoves here.

$17 is my raise size here. I also wouldn't be folding to a 3bet.

yeah, you're prob right. it's pretty difficult for him to have a boat.

TY.
I think almost all of you captured my thinking at the time.

I prolly should have mentioned it was deep in my thoughts.

I really wanted to just shove, but felt he's folding here almost always if he just had trips. As he's really betting river small with FH if he's looking to get max value. So I discounted that.

Ended up raising to $19, and hoped he didn't shove, which he hadn't shown being able to before.

I would hope he shoves imo

I'd have raised more on the flop, getting a couple more bucks value in by the river.

I think 19 is going to scare away all jacks except aj. I think 12-14 is much better IMO.

Since I'm only 3 1/2 weeks back into this NL game. I'm really trying to get a hold of my bet sizing. With plo it's simple. just mash pot. But manipulating the pot without being spewy is something that is more important, to me, at NL, to get max value.
I'm working hard on it and REALLY appreciate the replies.

BTW. In hindsight. I would have loved him to shove on me. Given the game flow at the time. I prolly snap call.

Definately raising for value.

So we raise to 15 and he shoves to $90.... you guys are calling?? He might do that with AJ but he could have J8 or a PP set.

I certainly would call if he raised to... $40, but I duno if I would be snapcalling an allin. Anybody agree??

Given the stack sizes, I agree. 9 times out of 10 he's just going to snap call with his trips to a raise. I don't see how calling his re-raise shove could possibly be +EV.

qazikm2000.. I like the way you put that. Makes total sense to me as perfactly valid.

I think the tilt factor (his tilt obv) is definately involved here. Maybe I don't snap call a shove, but I definately consider it given the game flow, but I'm admittedly still learning and getting the proper thought pricesses.

Although he had turned into a station, and was definately tilting, a hand like J8 was not something he had showed. Not saying it's not an option, just didn't fit into his play so far. I also thing that if he's checking J8 or 88 on the turn, he's losing value long term. I think 44 3 bets flop and definately leads turn, imo.

Does that make any sense?

Yeah man, makes plenty of sense- with the reads you have given I would also be inclined to call a shove- nothing better than stacking a fish.

I just like to look at all the options, and your though process given this specific villain seems 100% correct.

Definately a good spot to raise, I doubt he is ever shoving anyways that would happen like 1 in 50 times, way more likely he just minraises or something completely absurb and that is way easily a call.

Oh, haha I just realized you are 200bb deep lawl

Being only 14k hands into NL again. It is definately easier to analyze after the fact.

But everyone has given such good opinions/advice in this thread that I thank you all. I'm going to be posting more, and I hope you all bear with my "odd" at times PLO based, changing to NL thinking .

I don't like getting all in for 200BB here if he shoves after this line, so I'd prefer to raise a smallish amount. That way we can still call a "normal" 3bet without paying off a boat for stacks. I raise to $12-$14.