Hey,


Villain is a solid standard regular and i have a note about him, that he barrelled 3 streets with QQ on Kxx board.
The third player (UTG) is a 47/0 fish.
I don´t quite know how this note can help me........

Fold or call turn?

THANKS

888 Poker - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 112.3 BB (VPIP: 17.59, PFR: 14.82, 3Bet Preflop: 6.15, Hands: 1,267)
UTG: 117.62 BB (VPIP: 41.09, PFR: 8.91, 3Bet Preflop: 2.44, Hands: 263)
UTG+1: 109 BB (VPIP: 44.35, PFR: 17.14, 3Bet Preflop: 2.83, Hands: 499)
MP: 205.82 BB (VPIP: 18.11, PFR: 13.96, 3Bet Preflop: 7.32, Hands: 268)
MP+1: 38.5 BB (VPIP: 14.94, PFR: 12.15, 3Bet Preflop: 8.09, Hands: 1,198)
CO: 125.62 BB (VPIP: 12.84, PFR: 9.44, 3Bet Preflop: 5.42, Hands: 1,062)
Hero (BTN): 105 BB
SB: 187.58 BB (VPIP: 20.45, PFR: 14.77, 3Bet Preflop: 8.82, Hands: 90)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q A

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 4 BB, fold, Hero calls 4 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 3 BB

Flop: (13.5 BB, 3 players) Q 2 T
UTG checks, MP+1 checks, Hero bets 10.12 BB, fold, MP+1 calls 10.12 BB

Turn: (33.74 BB, 2 players) J
MP+1 bets 24.38 BB and is all-in, Hero?

Solid regular... does he play short all the time?

AQo on the button after a solid regular shortie raises (to iso UTG) in front of you PF............ rethink a call behind please. Detailed response please. Include a PF raising range...especially considering his high % of 3! and the iso aspect.

On the flop...do the math here please. What is your SPR when you hit TPTK?

You vs. MP1 on the turn....and MP1 is a 40bb shortie........what are your pot odds to call? Related, what percentage of wins must you have to make this call withe TPTK?

Solid reg

Sounds like he should be cbetting with a lot of AA/AK/KK/JJ if he triple barreled queens on king-high board. I don't think he has those hands in his range when he checks flop. Did he triple barrel vs. one opponent or multiway?

But he should also be betting KQ on the flop... why does KQ not bet flop then shove turn??? The only hand I can think of that plays this way is something that hits the jack, like QJ or JT.

I think a tight fold is ok, the only semibluff that picks up a flush draw that would check-call flop and shove turn is AdTd. Most hands with a king bet the flop, I don't think he has a straight draw here, the Jd takes away a lot of his combo draws.

You need >24.38/(33.74+24.38 = 41.9% equity to call. However, there is only 1 QJs combination left and 2 JTs that would have middle pair + BFD on the flop (if he only likes iso'ing with the suited variants of those hands preflop and overlimps QJo/JTo). You only have 35.51% equity vs [QJs,JTs,AdTd]. If he ever has JJs+/AK (even though he played it really stupid), you have less. So I think it's a safe fold.

You should snap call if he ever has KQ though since you improve to 66.57% equity, but again that's such a stupid way to play KQ I don't think he has it. But if he plays KQ like this, then he might play KK/AA/AK/JJ like this in which case we're back down to 31% again.

Also, AQo plays better as a 3-bet fold pre vs. a shortstacker.

youre most likely toast here vs a 14/12.

doesn't matter, had checks.

Solid regs don't start hands with 38bb. And the check-call after raising PF from a normally TAG villain is suspicious. He either flopped a monster (QQ/TT/QT) or nailed the turn (JJ). I suppose AK is possible but I don't see him playing K9 that way. You'd be calling there on the hope that he's on a hand like 99 or two diamonds, which is a tiny part of his range.

This is inaccurate. There are solid shortstack regulars. True, they play a pure shortstack strategy....but nothing about that suggests that they are not solid players. In fact it may be a profitable way to play the game.

What we don't know is what villain started his session with. If he is a 20bb SS player.....maybe he just doubled up.

We FR players usually prefer a table full of 100bb+ players. But there is no denying that a coupla solid shorties can do well against us. The game is tilted toward their advantage.

Sure they might exist but generally speaking shortstacking is a reliable sign of a weaker player. If you are confident in your skills you want more money on the table. Either he took a hit and didn't reload (which regs don't do) or he's shortstacking, which may be hard to exploit but is very easy to play against.

easy you say?

OK, how do you play the turn here? or....do you have earlier changes?

I fold because I think his play looks trappy here.

Shortstackers are generally easier to play against because their ranges are much tighter and there are lots of spots that just aren't worth getting involved in because the implied odds aren't there. That doesn't necessarily mean it's easy to make money off them - it isn't - only that it is easier to play against them.

snap fold

All the numbers and graphs don't take away from the fact "It sure Feels" like he has hit a gutshot broadway straight and you now need to fold...in this spot. I would fold with info provided...

Sent from my LGLS775 using Tapatalk

There's a difference between solid and good. I also don't think we should be placing too much emphasis on the 38bb stack when we have over 1K his hands to go with.

Well,

I should probably mention that i started playing online poker again a couple of weeks ago after a 5 years break (i took this long break mostly because of black friday).
Back in the days (2010 and early 2011) i was a winning midstakes FR NL regular (NL200 -600) on Stars and other sites.

Right now i´m testing the limits to see what limit I can possibly beat according to my skills atm. The problem is that I forgot a lot of the NL Holdem basics over the past 5 years and that means that there´ll be more noob posts and questions

Because the games have changed A LOT over the past 5 years I think that NL25 is probably the highest Limit i can play.


To the actual hand:

Yep Villain always plays shortstacked and I forgot to mention this

I called pre because I had a note about Villain that he barrelled 3 streets with QQ on Kxx board. So I figured that the best play is to just call MP1´s iso raise because of this note and the possibility that the UTG-fish stays in the hand more often (compared to a 3bet).
I mean the fact that villain is able to 3barrell in such a spot obv widens my calling range when facing a cbet --> when i hit a pair i almost never have to fold vs Villains cbets + 2nd barrells. I can also float villain wider (probably not in this actual spot because of the potsize on the flop compared to villains stacksize) .

MP1´s iso range is probably something like 22+ and QJs+ in this spot (please tell me if i´m totally wrong here) an I´m obv way ahead of villains range.
I mean I´d rather 3bet something like QJ or K9 vs this guy because Villain´s fold to 3bet is 90% (38 folds out of 42 samples) and his 4bet range is 1% --> i´m actually 3bet bluffing with AQos imo because villain only continues with a very strong range and I feel much more comfortable playing AQos in a single raised pot + a read about villains barrelling tendencies.

As played on the flop i bet 3/4 potsize for value.
I don´t really know what would be the best sizing for the value bet on the flop because of villains stacksize and right now i can´t figure it out --> lack of NL Holdem basics obv --> you got me

On the turn...... well, Winzip did the math and i have nothing to add to this.


Thanks to all!

Explain why you want to play multiway with a TP type hand (by calling PF to potentially keep UTG in the pot). Doesn't you equity go down with more players in the pot?

To address underlined above:

Do you know what SPR is? Can you tell us a good SPR for a TP type hand?

Why do I agree with WinZip?

Yes i remember the basics about SPR but it´s not something that i consider while i´m playing --> have to implement this into my thought process for sure

Lets check if i got this right:

- SPR = effective stack size (on the flop 34,5BB) / potsize (13,5BB) = 2,6
- The SPR Tells us how much we have to risk (stacksize) for the potential reward (potsize)
- Big SPR --> high risk and small SPR --> low risk
- In general small SPR´s should be better for Top Pair/bottom two pair etc... --> high SPR´s are better for good drawing hands (lets say 10 outs plus)
So a good SPR-Number for TP hands might be something like 0-6 i guess.

To the actual hand:

So we have a low SPR (2,6) as played on the flop and according to the SPR concept Hero has to make the decision if he wants to bet and get MP1 all in on later streets or check back the flop.
B/f is not an option here because of the low SPR right?

Lets say Hero did 3bet PF to 12BB:

- lets say MP1 called OOP and UTG folded --> the pot is 26,5BB and MP1 Stack is 26,5BB
- SPR = 26,5/26,5 = 1

So if Hero 3bets and Villain calls there´s only one decision left postflop imo because the SPR is so low.
Villain can still cause some troubles by potsize-donking all in on the flop but overall the hand is easier to play

--> This is why you agree with WinZip about that AQos plays better as a 3bet/fold preflop vs shortstackers right?


About keeping UTG-fish in the pot

Yes my equity goes down, but also my implied odds are better because the fish will stay in the pot longer with weaker hands compared to MP1.
UTG will also sometimes overcall my 3bet OOP with weaker hands but i think he´ll much more often just call in a single raised pot preflop.
Of course this is just an assumption and i never did the math behind it .

barreling tendencies.....so you have hopefully agreed (PF) to calling it off if you hit TP?

SPR.... seems like either raising or calling PF will get you a SPR number that is low enough to make the hand easier to play. I personally look at a TP hand as a hand I am willing to (generally) spend 40BB on.

I guess in my ramblings I have been trying to say...this hand is made or lost PF. Once you make the decision to compete PF, the hand plays itself.

For me, I am raising PF and getting it in vs. range. If villains fold PF, it is a win. I really don't want to see a flop. If shortie pushes over us PF, I think we can get away.

snap fold

excellent discussion

I buy in for the 30BB minimum, cash out at the 100BB maximum and start over. As I learn the modern expoitative game it makes it easier to make all in decisions. Sure I leave some profit on the table, but the swings are so much more managable.