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| Micro Stakes Full Ring Discussion of up to .25/.50 online no-limit pot-limit Texas hold'em full ring games, situations and strategies |
04-02-2008, 11:35 PM
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#1
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veteran
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Breaking Rocks!
Posts: 2,065
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50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion
BB is unknown
UTG is 30/0/.4 w/ a note that he limp called 9s UTG and donked a 2/3 pot bet on an 8 hi flop.
Button is 62/15/1.7 over 60 hands, no notes
I'm running 25/15/2 on this table over 40 hands
UltimateBet $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com
UTG+2: $24.25
MP1: $49.50
MP2: $51.60
Hero (CO): $50.90
BTN: $37.10
SB: $30.95
BB: $43.90
UTG: $24.00
UTG+1: $59.80
Pre Flop: Hero is CO with J  Q 
UTG calls $0.50, 4 folds, Hero raises to $2.25, BTN calls $2.25, 1 fold, BB calls $1.75, UTG calls $1.75
Flop: ($9.25) T  Q  7 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $7, BTN calls $7, BB raises to $41.65 all in, UTG calls $21.75 all in, Hero...?
The top pair seems easy to fold, but the FD tempts me to stay in. I just thought that this hand would be interesting to discuss. I'll post results and my thoughts in the morning.
Should I be raising this UTG limper (with this note) w/ a speculative hand such as this?
Who is the most dangerous player in this hand based on their line?
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04-02-2008, 11:56 PM
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#2
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veteran
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Wat ever a man wants a man achieves
Posts: 2,567
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion
I think BB has a set or 2pair, would like to know what others say..........
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04-03-2008, 01:20 AM
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#3
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grinder
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Holycowtown
Posts: 431
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion
Calling 34 to win 85 is like 2.4:1, more like 3:1 if BTN calls too. Your odds of making the flush, trips, or two pair by the river are .95:1, which looks like pretty good odds to me. But that does leave, of course, the possibility that somebody's got Ahxh or Kxhx, or Ah or Kh and catches runner runner hearts. I'm gonna call one of these [BTN?] an overpair, and I think we'll have the rest of it beat often enough to justify the call.
I'm guessing there's an analysis that proves me wrong here, though...
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04-03-2008, 02:10 AM
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#4
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: We won the 'SHIP!!!
Posts: 19,589
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion
im not good at math when im this drunk but i think its a call...youre for sure behind but have a ton of outs vs anything
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04-03-2008, 02:13 AM
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#5
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veteran
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 3,253
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion
Quote:
Originally Posted by CalledDownLight
im not good at math when im this drunk but i think its a call...youre for sure behind but have a ton of outs vs anything
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I agree that it is probably a call...but I can think of several scenarios where he drawing thin, to nearly dead here.
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04-03-2008, 02:16 AM
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#6
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: We won the 'SHIP!!!
Posts: 19,589
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmillerdls
I agree that it is probably a call...but I can think of several scenarios where he drawing thin, to nearly dead here.
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yes, sometimes one guy has a bigger draw and the other has a better made hand, but if they are both made or both drawing or somehow the made hand is worse then you are golden
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04-03-2008, 02:21 AM
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#7
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veteran
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 3,253
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion
Quote:
Originally Posted by CalledDownLight
yes, sometimes one guy has a bigger draw and the other has a better made hand, but if they are both made or both drawing or somehow the made hand is worse then you are golden
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their stats don't suggest that they get wildly out of line with worse than QJ here...but who knows at these stakes.
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04-03-2008, 09:07 AM
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#8
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veteran
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Breaking Rocks!
Posts: 2,065
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion
I think you're both wildly over estimating your equity here. I figure someone has to have a better FD and there is definitely going to be a better made hand out there. The only way that we have some equity is if we have the best FD. If there is a worse FD out, then we have 2 less outs to make our hand. Seemed like an easy fold to me, though I hated folding it.
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04-03-2008, 09:54 AM
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#9
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newbie
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 38
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion
Quote:
Originally Posted by Landlord79
I think you're both wildly over estimating your equity here. I figure someone has to have a better FD and there is definitely going to be a better made hand out there. The only way that we have some equity is if we have the best FD. If there is a worse FD out, then we have 2 less outs to make our hand. Seemed like an easy fold to me, though I hated folding it.
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+1
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04-03-2008, 10:33 AM
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#10
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grinder
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Grinding on internets
Posts: 540
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion
Quote:
Originally Posted by Landlord79
I think you're both wildly over estimating your equity here. I figure someone has to have a better FD and there is definitely going to be a better made hand out there. The only way that we have some equity is if we have the best FD. If there is a worse FD out, then we have 2 less outs to make our hand. Seemed like an easy fold to me, though I hated folding it.
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Im only making this call if i have the nutflush draw as well. Good Fold, IMO.
I put the BB on a set or a monster combo draw and UTG with a set or the nut flush draw. Someone has a better made hand.
Regardless of what price were getting sometimes a fold is better in certain situations and this is a situation where we can be content with folding.
my $.02
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04-03-2008, 10:39 AM
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#11
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veteran
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Breaking Rocks!
Posts: 2,065
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion
Student (9:25:33 AM): why didnt you stay in
Landlord79 (9:26:13 AM): because up against a huge check raise and a call (all in), TP just doesn't have much value
Landlord79 (9:26:38 AM): I could be up against a flush draw (FD) and if so it is possibly bigger than my FD
Landlord79 (9:26:44 AM): did you read all of the responses?
Landlord79 (9:26:53 AM): read the whole thread
Student (9:27:06 AM): ok im still reading
Student (9:29:04 AM): does that come naturally to you
Student (9:29:19 AM): what if it was only 1 person that was 3-4raising u
Student (9:29:23 AM): would you of stayed
Landlord79 (9:29:40 AM): probably
Landlord79 (9:30:02 AM): TP + FD has a lot of equity against a made hand such as a better TP
Landlord79 (9:30:18 AM): even 2 pair you have value against
Landlord79 (9:30:37 AM): if you're up against a better FD then you can hope that your TP holds up
Landlord79 (9:31:28 AM): but against multiple opponents you are possibly up against a better made hand and another FD which may or may not be better than your FD but still reduces your good outs
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04-03-2008, 08:33 PM
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#12
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centurion
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 190
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion
Insta shove and pray to hit a heart...I think you got odds even with sets and a possibility that an A or K of hearts is in your villins range.
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04-03-2008, 09:33 PM
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#13
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old hand
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Getting ownd by SS's as a 6:1 fav
Posts: 1,648
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion
I make the high varience call. I think you win often enough to be profitable
UTG win, but you beat other 2, side pot is a freeroll... And I have to be shown AhKh in this one... I dont think you see Ahxh or Khxh here very often...
I dont discount the flush draw too much...
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04-03-2008, 09:36 PM
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#14
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old hand
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Getting ownd by SS's as a 6:1 fav
Posts: 1,648
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion
On a side note, hopefully people are paying attention...
I dont mind so much losing hands like this. I usually get more action then if I show I am capable of raising anything more then 88+ AQ+
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04-03-2008, 09:43 PM
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#15
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journeyman
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 307
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion
Quote:
Originally Posted by Landlord79
I think you're both wildly over estimating your equity here. I figure someone has to have a better FD and there is definitely going to be a better made hand out there. The only way that we have some equity is if we have the best FD. If there is a worse FD out, then we have 2 less outs to make our hand. Seemed like an easy fold to me, though I hated folding it.
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Easy fold then?
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