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Old 04-02-2008, 11:35 PM   #1
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50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion

BB is unknown

UTG is 30/0/.4 w/ a note that he limp called 9s UTG and donked a 2/3 pot bet on an 8 hi flop.

Button is 62/15/1.7 over 60 hands, no notes

I'm running 25/15/2 on this table over 40 hands

UltimateBet $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG+2: $24.25
MP1: $49.50
MP2: $51.60
Hero (CO): $50.90
BTN: $37.10
SB: $30.95
BB: $43.90
UTG: $24.00
UTG+1: $59.80

Pre Flop: Hero is CO with J Q
UTG calls $0.50, 4 folds, Hero raises to $2.25, BTN calls $2.25, 1 fold, BB calls $1.75, UTG calls $1.75

Flop: ($9.25) T Q 7 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $7, BTN calls $7, BB raises to $41.65 all in, UTG calls $21.75 all in, Hero...?

The top pair seems easy to fold, but the FD tempts me to stay in. I just thought that this hand would be interesting to discuss. I'll post results and my thoughts in the morning.

Should I be raising this UTG limper (with this note) w/ a speculative hand such as this?

Who is the most dangerous player in this hand based on their line?
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Old 04-02-2008, 11:56 PM   #2
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion

I think BB has a set or 2pair, would like to know what others say..........
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Old 04-03-2008, 01:20 AM   #3
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion

Calling 34 to win 85 is like 2.4:1, more like 3:1 if BTN calls too. Your odds of making the flush, trips, or two pair by the river are .95:1, which looks like pretty good odds to me. But that does leave, of course, the possibility that somebody's got Ahxh or Kxhx, or Ah or Kh and catches runner runner hearts. I'm gonna call one of these [BTN?] an overpair, and I think we'll have the rest of it beat often enough to justify the call.

I'm guessing there's an analysis that proves me wrong here, though...
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Old 04-03-2008, 02:10 AM   #4
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion

im not good at math when im this drunk but i think its a call...youre for sure behind but have a ton of outs vs anything
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Old 04-03-2008, 02:13 AM   #5
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion

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Originally Posted by CalledDownLight View Post
im not good at math when im this drunk but i think its a call...youre for sure behind but have a ton of outs vs anything
I agree that it is probably a call...but I can think of several scenarios where he drawing thin, to nearly dead here.
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Old 04-03-2008, 02:16 AM   #6
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion

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I agree that it is probably a call...but I can think of several scenarios where he drawing thin, to nearly dead here.
yes, sometimes one guy has a bigger draw and the other has a better made hand, but if they are both made or both drawing or somehow the made hand is worse then you are golden
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Old 04-03-2008, 02:21 AM   #7
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion

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Originally Posted by CalledDownLight View Post
yes, sometimes one guy has a bigger draw and the other has a better made hand, but if they are both made or both drawing or somehow the made hand is worse then you are golden
their stats don't suggest that they get wildly out of line with worse than QJ here...but who knows at these stakes.
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Old 04-03-2008, 09:07 AM   #8
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion

I think you're both wildly over estimating your equity here. I figure someone has to have a better FD and there is definitely going to be a better made hand out there. The only way that we have some equity is if we have the best FD. If there is a worse FD out, then we have 2 less outs to make our hand. Seemed like an easy fold to me, though I hated folding it.
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Old 04-03-2008, 09:54 AM   #9
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion

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Originally Posted by Landlord79 View Post
I think you're both wildly over estimating your equity here. I figure someone has to have a better FD and there is definitely going to be a better made hand out there. The only way that we have some equity is if we have the best FD. If there is a worse FD out, then we have 2 less outs to make our hand. Seemed like an easy fold to me, though I hated folding it.
+1
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Old 04-03-2008, 10:33 AM   #10
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion

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Originally Posted by Landlord79 View Post
I think you're both wildly over estimating your equity here. I figure someone has to have a better FD and there is definitely going to be a better made hand out there. The only way that we have some equity is if we have the best FD. If there is a worse FD out, then we have 2 less outs to make our hand. Seemed like an easy fold to me, though I hated folding it.
Im only making this call if i have the nutflush draw as well. Good Fold, IMO.

I put the BB on a set or a monster combo draw and UTG with a set or the nut flush draw. Someone has a better made hand.

Regardless of what price were getting sometimes a fold is better in certain situations and this is a situation where we can be content with folding.

my $.02
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Old 04-03-2008, 10:39 AM   #11
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion

Student (9:25:33 AM): why didnt you stay in
Landlord79 (9:26:13 AM): because up against a huge check raise and a call (all in), TP just doesn't have much value
Landlord79 (9:26:38 AM): I could be up against a flush draw (FD) and if so it is possibly bigger than my FD
Landlord79 (9:26:44 AM): did you read all of the responses?
Landlord79 (9:26:53 AM): read the whole thread
Student (9:27:06 AM): ok im still reading
Student (9:29:04 AM): does that come naturally to you
Student (9:29:19 AM): what if it was only 1 person that was 3-4raising u
Student (9:29:23 AM): would you of stayed
Landlord79 (9:29:40 AM): probably
Landlord79 (9:30:02 AM): TP + FD has a lot of equity against a made hand such as a better TP
Landlord79 (9:30:18 AM): even 2 pair you have value against
Landlord79 (9:30:37 AM): if you're up against a better FD then you can hope that your TP holds up
Landlord79 (9:31:28 AM): but against multiple opponents you are possibly up against a better made hand and another FD which may or may not be better than your FD but still reduces your good outs
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Old 04-03-2008, 08:33 PM   #12
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion

Insta shove and pray to hit a heart...I think you got odds even with sets and a possibility that an A or K of hearts is in your villins range.
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Old 04-03-2008, 09:33 PM   #13
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion

I make the high varience call. I think you win often enough to be profitable

UTG win, but you beat other 2, side pot is a freeroll... And I have to be shown AhKh in this one... I dont think you see Ahxh or Khxh here very often...

I dont discount the flush draw too much...
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Old 04-03-2008, 09:36 PM   #14
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion

On a side note, hopefully people are paying attention...

I dont mind so much losing hands like this. I usually get more action then if I show I am capable of raising anything more then 88+ AQ+
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Old 04-03-2008, 09:43 PM   #15
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Re: 50NL - TP + FD vs resistance: discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Landlord79 View Post
I think you're both wildly over estimating your equity here. I figure someone has to have a better FD and there is definitely going to be a better made hand out there. The only way that we have some equity is if we have the best FD. If there is a worse FD out, then we have 2 less outs to make our hand. Seemed like an easy fold to me, though I hated folding it.
Easy fold then?
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