So lets play the fun game of guess the ranges!

HERO: running 16/16 on the table after the first few orbits. Villain probably sees HERO as an 18/15, 3b: 5%, ATS: 45% give or take

Villain: 11/10, ATS: 33%, 3b: 3%, CB: 76% over a good sample. He has done this minR thing as a steal (CO and BUT) numerous times. My notes on him have to do him 4b/folding (after a minR steal).

This was my first hand played against Villain during this session


Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

MP2: $52.40
CO: $58.15
BTN: $53.65
Hero (SB): $55.65
BB: $14.25
UTG: $50.00
UTG+1: $106.75
MP1: $53.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with ::X:: ::X::
5 folds, BTN raises to $1, Hero calls $0.75, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($3.00) 3 9 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $1.60, BB folds, BTN raises to $4.50, Hero calls $2.90

Turn: ($12.00) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.75, Hero raises to $23.80

so what are we putting both Villain and HERO on?

i'm putting hero on some sc's with 9's 33 22. i'm putting btn on 33 22 overpairs and something like AKcc.

Why do I want to say hero has OP and villain has K9?

hero has a hand that is playable that has some value, but is not the top of our folding range or the top of our range. 88-JJ, KQs+, Scs up to a 1 gapper with a 9. A4s, A5s

Villain is almost the same range but I would add 22-33 and a Lot more Axs.

wooooaaaah. you completely skipped reads/stats on BB besides lolish $14 stack which would make this a value bet/strong semi-bluff since there's really no room to bluff into the fish OOP MW.

^ Super important stuff.

anyhow. I think you 3bet AK pre against villain so I'm discounting that. Sets should probably lead for more if you're going to lead.
That leaves mid PPs, AX, and some 9x stuff (which I also think should be leading larger for value into BB on the flop). Pretty much no air here ldo.
Turn can be close to the same since villain has to fold almost all the time with just about everything but trips/FH and KK+ (maybe QQ+).

Villain's range on the flop is still same as pre (95% opening range) since we raise donkbets all the time.
I'm a little lost with his turn range for betting that small... Is this like 77-88, 99-QQ being scared or 9x, 33, 22 trapping? Seems too small to be an attempt at a semi-bluff to get you to fold.
I'm going to say polarized between 1 pair looking to buy initiative for cheap showdown or a trap looking to price you in. I don't think there's a lot of draws in there.

oops...my fault. 25/15 over 15 hands. 3b: 0%

PRE

First we know villain is an aggressive reg. He's also playing 50% of hands here probably. Hero probably has a narrower range for playing oop and probably 3b most high card hands for value, but not a super wide range because we don't want to get 4b off equity. I'd say any pp up to TT, plus suited connectors up to QJs.

EDIT: Hero more likely to call wider given fish in BB, just adds more implieds to all the hands he would play.

FLOP

Hero knows villain is likely to cbet here, so not super worried about checking back, meaning this is less likely to be value, but still possible, though half pot donk bet/call on a somewhat wet board makes me think this is a 9 most likely, maybe 88, TT as well. Could be 33-22-99 if Hero thinks villain is likely to bluff raise a lot and doesn't want to blow him off a bluff. donk/3b more likely if villain's range or sizing indicated more strength.

Villain raises, but small, likely to be a bluff with overs. He would probably raise bigger with big spades and overpairs, both to get more money in and actually charge a draw which is getting almost direct given his sizing.

TURN

Hero c/r is super standard to catch a follow through bluff from an aggro player. Hero c/r both value and bluff hands here. But more likely to c/c lead river with flopped set because villain is folding so much on the turn to this play. I don't think anything can call here, like even AA is thinking hard about this because it beats nothing Hero does this for value with. On the other hand Hero needs to help villain get money in right now and his sizing is kinda large for a bluff.

Villain is b/f or bluffing with no equity (So likely to take the free spade off if his equity is getting super cut by the board pair if he has big spades). Maybe he is b/f an overpair though, hoping to charge spades and take a free river. Also terrible follow thru card for him to bluff with.

CONCLUSION

I'd say Hero most likely is turning TT or 88 into a bluff (sicko) or binked like 89 or 9T, but this is less likely if he thinks villain is not spewy and is b/f here instead of b/c. The worse villain is the more likely this is to be Hero strong, Villain weak. The better villain is, the more likely this is to be Hero polarized, villain b/f.

33% ATS over a good sample, so I think 33% is a better guess than 50%, unless hero has done something to activate villain tiltmode.

grunge.
Preflop, I don't think 1010+, AK are in the hero's range. If he knows the villain will 4 bet failed steals, I think you are 3 betting those to induce a bluff.

Hero preflop: 22-99, occasionally some sc stuff 45s+, 68s+, A10+, maybe but not likely lower Axs+. I would need to know the hero's fold SB to steal to have a better idea.

Villain preflop: 22-AA, Ax, kxs, all broadway, most mid sc and 1 gappers, maybe atc if the bb is a nit and he doesn't have anything going on on his other tables.
---
Flop
Hero - 1/2 pot donk (fish obv) says f/d, set, a9s, or 45s
Villain - raise - 22,33,99, 1010-AA, suited broadways of clubs, combo draws like a2, 45
Hero -call - no change
---
Turn
Hero check: giving up on setting price for river w/ fd or trapping with f/h or quads - no change
Villain - I need to know what ghey bets mean from villain. He could be on clubs and wanting to take the pot down while he is still perceived as strong even though that card made his equity plummit, but he couldn't bring himself to do a real bet with just a naked f/d. It could also be that he made a full house or quads, and wants to give the flush draw proper implied odds to call and hopefully make their hand, and needs to bet as much as he thinks you'll call w/ a flush draw to set up a slight overbet shove on a club river to stack you. If he had 1010+, he would have made a normal sized bet and probably folded to a raise. 1010+ is out of his range. I am more inclined to think the ghey bet is a fd than nuts and weight his range 75/25 to f/d and combo draws over a full house +.
Hero - baller check raise - you either have a A9,22,33,99 or you have the f/d with the read that his ghey bet is weak but ahead of you in terms of a higher club or one pair combo, so you have no showdown value. I the latter is more likely b/c of c/r size. I think a value c/r would have been smaller.

Final answer:
Hero 45+, 68+
villain: about the same with the addition of some Ax hands and broadway hands

PF: BTN = 22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T7s+,96s+,85s+,75s+,64s+,5 4s,A9o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T8o+,98o,87o

With some operative on assumptions that Hero will choose not to 3-bet 22-55 but will 3-bet non straightening Axs.
I will make an assumption that JJ+ AQ+ KQs is his value 3-bet range.

SB = TT-22,ATs,A5s-A2s,KJs-K9s,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,76s,65s,AJo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,T9o

mega edited my post above.

Well you cant have 22 - 66, so no set for you since you 3bet or fold those preflop, unless his minraising makes you lean towards a fcall (whats his reaction to 3bet in term of fold/call/4bet ?)
You can have a AJcc KQcc, KJcc, ATcc type hand altho you could probably 3bet KQs/AJs for value against this type of opponent who may call with JQs or exemple.
You can also have T9s/j9s type hands who decided to peel the flop.
You can have 9 for quads, but I dont really understand the donkament insofar he is gonna cbet this flop a lot. Still possible ?

When it comes to villain im a bit confused by his turn bet sizing. Had he a 9 he woud probably bet bigger on the turn. So I would discount 9x from his range a lot.
Now he can either have a weak underpair (77-88), or an overpair (TT-JJ-QQ). But Given they type of player im actually pretty sure he may check back those on the turn, because he seems fairly bad and would sometimes pot control on this turn. So combos have to be discounted.
Now he can have sets 22/33 (FH now) and try to price you in for draws (although you never have a gutshot for you 3bet most Ax where X <5 or pf if you wanna play them) I would expect so from this kind of player, they dont realize how much value they are giving up doing so.
He can also have some kind of club hands with a good club Kxcc or Axcc but im not sure he barrels those on a 9 turn versus you. Im pretty confused by villain range to be honest.

So just for fun you have 99 and him 33.

Villain, probably all pocket pairs, something like A8+, a lot of things like J9, QT, perhaps some suited connectors for the preflop read.

He raised relatively small on the flop which says to me that he doesn't want to risk money if you reraise him. Seems like he's afraid of a WAWB situation. I'm guessing an overpair. Perhaps top pair. The fact that he fired again on the turn makes me think overpair and not top pair since he looked kind of weak.

As for hero, he is donking into two players which suggests that he doesn't have nothing. I'm guessing something decently strong, actually. Perhaps a 2pair or set. Not quite sure what to make of hero's check raise on the turn. Is the intended goal value or a fold? Not easy to tell. A villain's call definitely commits him which he clearly isn't happy about.

I'm guessing hero is doing this with the top of the range (sets and 2pair and trip 9s) and the bottom of the range (semibluff flush draws, perhaps complete air)

my bad: fold23b: 61%. 4b: 9%

Flop:

SB range is highly likely to be unbalanced.
Even though 76% CB one can easily presume that of the times he checks back IP a 932 flushing board is a strong candidate with the a good portion of his range.

As such - Heros range will be distributed - with all his sets, Flush draws.
Some of his hands that he believes are in front now but do not easily make it to showdown but these will appear more often in his c/c flop range.
Some of his top pair range will be in c/c lead turn line. So my expectation is to discount 9x from his range - as I dont think Hero is much of a c/r top pair value bettor - I think we have to keep some 9x in there then.

Then we have SB donk/betcall range - my expectation is to slightly discount sets now. Although I dont think we can preclude them from his range given how dry the board is. But we should really assume that at least some of the time SB will bet/3Bet his strong hands.
I think his FDs are going to populate his db/call a decent amount of time.

( It goes without saying we are heavily discounting 2prs from both players range.)

Then we go to villians flop raising range.

TT+, FDs with two overcards + sets.

I think villians range polarises here. I dont think his medium strength hands raise for value - so if they are then they are only populate in his range as spazz bluffs.

So I can easily see the bottom of his range with gutshots and whiffed overcards - bluff raising the flop - due to the negative reaction alot of players have to db.