Originally Posted by AlinMC
Sorry but really don't see how that can be true. I strongly disagree with checking the flop, losing initiative in this spot leaves room for lots of mistakes on later streets. Unless he's really terrible and allows us to play perfectly (e.g. shoves if we chk-raise), checking flop puts us in an even tougher situation and will most likely prove more costly. Are we planning to check-raise or call?
If we check-raise and he calls do we then plan to check-fold any non-K turn? What if he checks turn back and only bets the river?
If we just call what's our play on the turn+river if he keeps firing? Say he's making a half-sized pot bet ott, are we just happy to fold in that spot then?
He doesn't like to get out of line. I'd much rather cbet to fold the bottom of his range JJ/AK as it's very likely he's not going to float flop with those. He knows I've raised UTG's open from MP and has to give us credit we have JJ/AK beat on the flop almost always.
I say again he doesn't like to get out of line. But there's a much higher incentive to get out of line when the raiser gives away initiative, and rightly so. If it's fairly safe to assume this player won't float with JJ/AK, it's not at all safe to assume he won't be trying to take down the pot on the turn with them if we check both flop and turn. I believe betting flop ourselves and checking turn is marginally better, harder to make later mistakes and surely the cheapest way to narrow his range and go from there.
this post is very contradictory and numerous things are wrong with it. first you say checking will put you in tough spots, but then you say villain will not get out of line. which one is it?!?! hint - villains who rarely get out of line are even less likely to do so in a 3b pot. i would bet my entire roll on villain having QQ/AA and nothing else if he fires more than 1 time, so don't worry about being put in tough spots here at all
secondly, we would never ever be planning on c/rai - if thats the case we may as well transfer villain a buy-in and save ourselves from spewing a couple more through tilt later.
and why are you so happy to get AK and JJ to fold? they are drawing very thin vs. our hand, and by underrepping otf we can a) get them to bluff by firing flop when checked to and b) convince themselves that their hand is worth calling a bet with (JJ)/improve to a better hand that will call a bet (AK) later on. firing flop gets value from JJ - that's about it, and even then that's debatable.
you're very caught up about "not making mistakes", when you're missing the fact that betting flop could well be a mistake, and also that checking flop could well induce mistakes from villain.
in summary - call pre (3rd time i've said that i think), check flop, c/f turn now