78% is the highest you've seen?

most regs have over 78% fold to 3b

seen people with 95%

Over large samples ye I recall around 80% but guess I'm wrong.


95% lol

you are using pt3

Awkward spot not sure what to do

But feel like c/c zflop is better than bet flop c/f turn

yeah whats the difference?

does HEM measure total fold to 3b rather than fold to 3b if pfr

yes, but you have it backwards

3b pre is fine in most cases. Flop I probably check though, don't see a real point to betting. His range is just so much AK/JJ-KK and maybe AA once in awhile. I think getting him to bet worse hands far outweighs getting AK to fold its equity (and technically JJ folding its 2-outter equity too I guess). As played it's probably a ch/f. There's 6 combos of AK and 3 combos of QQ. But I don't think he flats AK as much pre as he does QQ and he certainly doesn't bet turn as much with AK. Add onto that the fact that he can flat AA once in awhile pre as well as the fact that a lot of the times he bets AK he's going to shove river as well (but probably not enough such that we can call/call profitably) and I think we should just fold. But yeah I still check flop.

oh snap i was right for a change

3bet pre is fine. Check flop. You beat JJ and AK and neither are going to want to put much money in the pot from here.

Sorry but really don't see how that can be true. I strongly disagree with checking the flop, losing initiative in this spot leaves room for lots of mistakes on later streets. Unless he's really terrible and allows us to play perfectly (e.g. shoves if we chk-raise), checking flop puts us in an even tougher situation and will most likely prove more costly. Are we planning to check-raise or call?

If we check-raise and he calls do we then plan to check-fold any non-K turn? What if he checks turn back and only bets the river?

If we just call what's our play on the turn+river if he keeps firing? Say he's making a half-sized pot bet ott, are we just happy to fold in that spot then?

He doesn't like to get out of line. I'd much rather cbet to fold the bottom of his range JJ/AK as it's very likely he's not going to float flop with those. He knows I've raised UTG's open from MP and has to give us credit we have JJ/AK beat on the flop almost always.

I say again he doesn't like to get out of line. But there's a much higher incentive to get out of line when the raiser gives away initiative, and rightly so. If it's fairly safe to assume this player won't float with JJ/AK, it's not at all safe to assume he won't be trying to take down the pot on the turn with them if we check both flop and turn. I believe betting flop ourselves and checking turn is marginally better, harder to make later mistakes and surely the cheapest way to narrow his range and go from there.

Wow FR tilts me so much, i could not imagine myself check fold overpairs after cbetting Kings on such a board

(useless post but i had to say it )

this post is very contradictory and numerous things are wrong with it. first you say checking will put you in tough spots, but then you say villain will not get out of line. which one is it?!?! hint - villains who rarely get out of line are even less likely to do so in a 3b pot. i would bet my entire roll on villain having QQ/AA and nothing else if he fires more than 1 time, so don't worry about being put in tough spots here at all.

secondly, we would never ever be planning on c/rai - if thats the case we may as well transfer villain a buy-in and save ourselves from spewing a couple more through tilt later.

and why are you so happy to get AK and JJ to fold? they are drawing very thin vs. our hand, and by underrepping otf we can a) get them to bluff by firing flop when checked to and b) convince themselves that their hand is worth calling a bet with (JJ)/improve to a better hand that will call a bet (AK) later on. firing flop gets value from JJ - that's about it, and even then that's debatable.

you're very caught up about "not making mistakes", when you're missing the fact that betting flop could well be a mistake, and also that checking flop could well induce mistakes from villain.

in summary - call pre (3rd time i've said that i think), check flop, c/f turn now

Thanks for the replies!

Okay so basically you're saying our plan for the hand would be to check-call flop and fold to any further betting.

I'm not happy with my phrasing but I said there's a much higher incentive for him to get out of line when we give away initiative; and that applies in general. That's why he just might be able to fire another bet with jj/ak (either turn or river, in which case according to our plan we fold), but unlikely he'd call a flop cbet with them.

Yeah I'm aware it's the third time you said call pre but I had no reply to that, is it your standard play vs a 15/12 UTG open? I only flat AA/KK when there's a squeeze-happy player behind me and don't think there was one here.

Yea, I don't agree with call pre. That sounds a bit RO. Who the hell ever flats KK to an open?

The best way to play the hand isnt always the easiest.

If you are saying that he might put in 2 streets with JJ/AK if you check, but only 1 if you bet then what does that tell you about your line?