50NL deep, top set on retarded board

[tobe4funas]

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50, $0.10 ante No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #13658352

BTN: $54.16 (108.3 bb)
SB: $152.09 (304.2 bb)
BB: $51.89 (103.8 bb)
UTG+1: $124.40 (248.8 bb)
UTG+2: $50 (100 bb)
MP1: $125 (250 bb)
MP2: $148.21 (296.4 bb)
Hero (MP3): $148.22 (296.4 bb)
CO: $93.73 (187.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T T
3 folds, MP2 raises to $2, Hero calls $2, CO folds, BTN calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.65) 8 5 6 (3 players)
MP2 bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50, BTN calls $4.50

Turn: ($21.15) T (3 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $12.75, BTN raises to $47.56, MP2 folds, Hero calls $34.81

River: ($116.27) K (2 players)

OR is a good thinking nit
Caller is a reg running 23/18 over 140h, that's pretty much all i know. He may view me quite laggy.
SB is a massive whale so villain's range should be even wider than he is normally in BTN.
I think I not only beat a nice part of his value range but also he should have some semi-bluffs in his range, since the OR is mostly giving up after such check and i may be taking down the pot with any draw. Also, you know, i dont fold top sets... Anyway, anyone wants to fold turn for some reason?

[SA16]

fold flop

/nit

[homerunhitter7]

Villain has floosh. Flop is meh- it's really hard for you to have the best hand but if BTN folds I think you can get MP2 to fold his overpairs here.

[pokerarb]

Originally Posted by SA16

fold flop

/nit

this, you could be drawing to less than 1 out

[Kreuznagel]

Call this flop, then barrel the nit off his hand. Once the button calls behind it is an easy c/f to a substantial bet OTT. As played, obviously do not fold.

[tobe4funas]

Originally Posted by pokerarb

this, you could be drawing to less than 1 out

or i could be having the best hand... Any AdXx, probably AxKd, 77, 99 are all betting this flop. Besides on such board i have way too many options on later street to be afraid of floating once.

[MartL]

Yeah Im in the folding flop camp too. Apart from hitting the card that we actually hit theres not many that we like.

[magorko]

Originally Posted by tobe4funas

or i could be having the best hand... Any AdXx, probably AxKd, 77, 99 are all betting this flop. Besides on such board i have way too many options on later street to be afraid of floating once.

1. ofc he can have Ax with flushdraws, but it have better equity then your hand
2. he most likely not betting 77, maybe 99 w diamond, but he gonna c/f most of time mw OOP and even if he do, u cant call just because u beat one hand of his range, when another 100 combos beat u, thats like calling shove preflop with 33 preflop, because villain can have 22
3. there is still player behind and he gonna call/raise some % of time and u cant call with this hand and ton of turn cards gonna kill u

4. u binked your one out, now stack off, he defo can go crazy with flushdraw when u halfpotted turn and your hand seems weak (sets probably raise flop, flush most likely too unless its nut flush), maybe slowplayed set but not very often

[SA16]

ok how about this very simple example of why you should fold the flop
you turn your absolute gin card and still dont know if you can put money in. so what are you calling the flop for then? hoping that hell just c/f the turn and you can take it down? and if that is the case then id rather call the float with like Ax or something so at least we make it less likely that he will improve on the turn. imo this is like calling a flop raise with a FD (not nfd) and then folding to a bet on the turn when you get there because he can have a better flush.

[Hicham009]

and then folding to a bet on the turn when you get there because he can have a better flush.

[tobe4funas]

Originally Posted by SA16

ok how about this very simple example of why you should fold the flop
you turn your absolute gin card and still dont know if you can put money in. so what are you calling the flop for then? hoping that hell just c/f the turn and you can take it down? and if that is the case then id rather call the float with like Ax or something so at least we make it less likely that he will improve on the turn. imo this is like calling a flop raise with a FD (not nfd) and then folding to a bet on the turn when you get there because he can have a better flush.

Dont I? I created this thread just to check whether the ranges i assigned were correct or not, that's what most of my threads about - i want to confirm that my thought process and assigning ranges are correct. It's not like omg what should i do, i have no clue, wtf am i?!
your example isnt even close btw...

[SA16]

ok well based on the range you should create fold flop. by calling flop you either
1. fold on every single turn (exc. T) card if he bets.
2A. hope he c/f the turn if he checks but he is way more likely to bet the turn anyway after leading MW here
2B. hope to showdown your hand if he checks turn which includes hoping the river isnt one of 9 diamonds, 4 jacks, 4 queens, 4 kings, 4 aces,3 8s, 3 6s etc.. which can all easily put you behind
3. turn your 2 outer with a T and still not be confident if you can even profitably get the money in
/thread

[GIMMETHECHIPS]

I fold flop, because even if we have the best hand now, it's going to be extremely hard for us to win the hand in light of how many bad cards there are for us OTT+R.

The fact you even querying this

Originally Posted by tobe4funas

anyone wants to fold turn for some reason?

despite hitting the best card in the deck, show's how difficult it's going to be for us to continue with the hand OTT+R.

[RajHendon]

Best move: fold flop to nit who is c-betting (his probable overpair which beats TT) against two players on coordinated flop texture.

Since you decided to proceed to turn: Yes, the supposed gin card came on turn, but laggy villain's raise narrows his range down to hands which beat you. Bet/fold turn.

If turn action had been different: Had laggy villain called turn and nit folded flop as in HH, v-bet on river is optimal against laggy villain, who now has a range which you beat.

[Pokie]

Lol at the 'retarded board' comment in the title.

If the button has the non-nut flush here, fair play to him for his flop play. I think over-calling could be higher +EV than raising in the long-run, and it allows him to jam the turn and get paid off a lot lighter.