Just want to have a cheeky look at this hand and see what everyone thinks. I mulled this one over with some friends and they weren't too stoked with my river decision. Honestly IMO I think all street decisions are interesting (Except Pre).

Villain is:
20/11/2 (220 hands) [Obviously not a Great Sample]
FTCB 67% (8/12)
C/r Flop 2/13
Raise Cbet 2/12
Bet Turn 3/12
Bet River 0/4

Hero has only been at the table for a few orbits playing 30/10/10, 1/3 FCB, and 1/1 Cbet but has been getting involved in a lot of pots against villain on my direct right and it's very likely Villain perceives (Slash has stats/HUD) me as fairly loose (maybe LAGgy?)



888 Poker - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 9 players


Hero (MP): 125.23 BB
MP+1: 195.53 BB
MP+2: 74.93 BB
CO: 113.27 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 84 BB
UTG: 216.57 BB
UTG+1: 51.8 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

fold, UTG+1 calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 5 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (12.5 BB, 2 players) A 7 6
Hero bets 7.33 BB, CO raises to 14.67 BB, Hero calls 7.33 BB

Turn: (41.83 BB, 2 players) K
Hero checks, CO bets 31.6 BB, Hero calls 31.6 BB

River: (105.03 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, CO bets 62 BB, Hero Folds


Given that I isolated from early I think it's fairly unlikely that Villain calls with A7s/A6s pre, I don't think he'd play 98s (or really have it in his range too often?) which means I guess we're beating uhhhhh like 76s, 86hh exactly (like surely he takes this line with 86s never), 87s (Virtually impossible given his turn sizing right?), A7s/A6s (if he ever calls pre given that original limper is not great) and any random spew that he could ever have (just so unlikely though right?).

Really I think he's only shoving river with 77/66 even though it seems weird that he raises them on the driest flop ever (I actually think he sometimes checks 2pair back on the river as I can credibly have Sets/Bigger 2pair and am not calling off river [or turn] with AQ/AJ, and super rarely have A7/A6s).


So yeah, the more that I think this out the more I'm feeling confident with the fold - would like to hear some opinions though? Cheers!

I think you made a good laydown. Tough to do with Top 2 but the board texture and betting action lead me to believe he's on a value line with a hand that beats you. WP.

I'd go further to say that you may even consider folding turn. It's like the K hits the turn and his confidence goes even higher to bomb the turn as if he's just hoping you have AK and he knows in the deepest parts of his soul that yeah you're gonna stack off against his set.

I think you can feel confident with the fold. When you have the gut feeling and follow it through I think is what is going to help you crush your limits. Remember that the money you save by folding to a river bet is equal to the money you earn by value betting the best hand.

But then again I saw one fish today overshove the river with 6 high after he triple barreled a 3 bet pot with no pair and no draws, just massive cojones on his part. Sadly his opponent had the nuts and snapped it off.

So then again, you just never know for sure

Disciplined fold vs a set