Sorry I meant to say do you think he has a range he will be flatting your flop 3bet with? I have a hard time believing he does, so I believe he will be jamming all his draws too. You only need 30% to call. He has 6 combos you are esentially drawing dead against, so if he has 97 here sometimes and a few combo draw combos you need to call. Maybe 3betting the flop isn't the best play? If you believe you only rep sets when yu 3bet here and he only stacks better then calling his raise may be a better play.

He doesn't need any bluffs. All he needs is the TWO combo-draws of T8s and 86s. If villain is putting you all-in with 2 pair, sets, and those TWO combo-draws, you have a positive EV call of 1.37

Oh, and when I say combo-draws, I really do mean combo-draws. I'm talking about flush AND 8 out straight draws. I'm talking monster draws here of 15 outs that have excellent equity on that flop. Any villain in his right mind would be nuts to not get all-in on the flop with a 15 out draw!

man, under 100BB just call, if you were above 250BB or more, then you can think a lot about folding there to his 4-bet(or just snap calling his check-raise),
if you were on he beggining of a big MTT i would advocate calling his check-raise and check-call till the river

But in that spot, just shove and stick it in, if he has the nutz, it was a cooler.
I don't even care about +ev or how often do you fold monsters, i just care about 1 thing here: it's ok to lose set over set, it happens and you will be happy in the long run, if you begin to fold sets like that it will hurt you A LOT in the long run

what is not acceptable is to fold your set when you're ahead of the guy... what if this guy tilted? what if he were drunk?

BTW, if this were a limp-hand it would be ok to fold in that spot facing his shove.

If you don't care about +ev then what difference does the stack size make?

His raise flop percentage is 14.17%

i'm talking about MUBS, if he keeps playing weak like that, it doesn't matter, he will always lose, short stacked or big stacked, that is what i was trying to express when i said: "i don't care about +EV there".

i think folding deep stack there sometimes against the right guy, is the right move because it's +EV, but sometimes you gotta shove there, even big stacked against the right guy.

Because it doesn't matter if you can fold a monster against a bigger set, what really matters in poker is the money you make with your set cracking aces, stacking some fishes with TPTK, slowplaying an aggro monkey.

It may be +EV to fold there, but doing plays like that can put you closer to weaktight play, which is not profitable in poker.

The same goes with those guys that tries to be LAG, but in the end they just become something close to fishes, the line from good LAG poker to maniac-fish isn't too long.

So what a lot of these 'flopping bottom set in a multiway pot and getting raised big by a tight player' type threads seem to conclude, is that if the villain only stacks sets and big combo draws then it is slightly -EV and if we add top 2 pair then it becomes slightly +EV to get the money in, but the key is we are talking about stacking bottom set against a tight player being only slightly +EV in the long run, whereas if we slow play it to try to gain value against his over pairs, top pairs and two pairs that he will hold more often, then surely this is higher +EV than the marginal stack off that will take a lot of variance to play out in our favour.

Ok, we may get outdrawn by a flush or straight sometimes, but then perhaps we boat up and can call a river bet, or sometimes the flush comes in and our opponent doesn't have it so we still win the hand even if we are forced to slow down a bit, but in the long run, surely slightly under repping our hand is better EV for bottom set against our opponents entire range, rather than allowing him to play close to perfect by him folding all over pairs etc, and only continuing with his strong stuff when we try to play for stacks with him.

Obviously against fishier players, then stacking sets is pretty standard as their range is a lot wider for committing all their chips, I'm just talking about some of the nitty regs out there of which I am one.

Do you not grasp the difference between situations? For example stacking off with bottom set vs a fish is a completely different scenario than stacking off vs a mega nit?

If against this player, it's +ev to fold. Than I am folding here every day of the week and twice on Sunday. But saying I don't care about +ev is an absolute joke and you're stacking off for all the wrong reasons. ''DERP I've got a set''


What the **** does this even mean lol.

I am never folding against a guy who c/r 14% here. Way too high. I'd consider folding if it was 2-3%

ok we get it. when we have bottom set and the Villain raises on a flop where he can't have 2 pair or an over-pair, then his range is often weighted too heavy toward value. In this situation, our set is the equivalent of an over-pair. Relative hand strength for the win.

Flop raise % can be deceptive if the Villain is willing to slow play some sets. In addition, 14% doesn't really seem that high to me even if he's raising all his sets on this board.

He didn't check raise in this hand though.

You guys aren't looking at the context of the situation. Most of you are in the "ZOMG I HAZ A SET" camp. He 4-bet ships. He knows I'm obviously strong, when I 3-bet, I don't think he ever expects us to fold.


This is one of my first sets where after reviewing it, a case to folding the flop makes sense (And yes I have been over setted plenty before)...

You switched positions half way through your post. At the beginning you assumed that the Hero had bottom set and was raised by the opponent. Then at the end, you suggested that the Hero had bottom set and was facing a bet. This is confusing.

While you might be right that the Villain will be folding over pairs if we're only raising the nuts, and thus we shouldn't raise bottom set. The real take away isn't to slow play the nuts (although there's a reason to do this), the actual take away is to BLUFF more because theoretically speaking the Villain assumes that you're not bluffing enough.


Your decision is correct usually, but your logic is wrong. You should slow play sets because theoretically speaking it forces the Villain to continue to bluff NOT because he'll fold his value hands too much. At the same time, if the Villain can have alot of gut shots and better in his betting range which will fold to a raise it can be theoretically correct to raise. In other words, I don't think you're properly taking all the variables into consideration... granted it's not easy to do and no one knows for sure.

I'm not sure why you're focusing heavily on the Blinds when neither blind called in this hand. And you're game sounds like a self full filling prophecy. If you are only ever calling with hands that make sets, then you're never going to have hands that should be bluff raising flops, therefore your opponent should be FOLDING sets to you if your opponent makes lower sets... because as you stated you only have higher sets in your range.

In other words, just because you have an unbalanced calling range preflop that doesn't connect well with most flops (outside of a set), doesn't mean that you're doing things right. It means that you're opening yourself to being exploited.

sorry pokie if you think i'm picking on you. i think you make some basic points about relative hand strength which should be pretty obvious to most people if they accept your assumptions.

I think the most important point is to try and understand how to respond to different player types. And where are the lines drawn between these player types because they aren't so obvious.

Sorry I meant raise flop %, my argument stands. And I don't always advocate stacking sets, this is a spot where you will have to stack it though... board way too wet.