LOL, I like your post, but I still think this hand is a fold. Has OP posted the results yet?

I must admit Im leaning towards folding depending on the stat I asked about. I mean after 10K hands we probably should have a very good idea what hands people are getting it in with.

You can discount Tobe, he dosnt have a fold button.

I decided to run some expected value (EV) calculations on this just for fun...
If villain's range on the flop consists of 99, 77, T8s, 86s, 65s, and 54s and he will carry out said flop actions with 2 pair, sets, 1 pair + flush draws, 1 pair + oesd's, flush draws + 4 or 8 out straight draws...your EV for calling his all-in is -.68
If, however, you add in some suited aces to his range (i.e. A2s-A9s)...your EV for calling then becomes +1.21

This assumes a few things, of course: namely that the hands he first raises your flop bet with are the same hands he puts you all-in with (I think this is plausible because 2 pair, sets, and combo-draws are strong hands...how many players will really fold this stuff on that flop?). This also assumes villain NEVER has anything goofy in his range like overpairs or bluffs (probably plausible but IF you throw in something goofy like JJ in his range, then your EV for calling his shove skyrockets to + 10.88)

So, if you are darn certain villain is ONLY doing this with 2 pair+ or strong combo draws and his range is ONLY 99, 77, T8s, 86s, 65s, and 54s then folding is the better action.

If villain can have some suited aces, however, calling is better. Personally, I think you cannot rule out Ax of clubs type hands which makes calling here profitable.

Edit: I left out 97s, which seems like the only reasonable 2 pair hand villain would have here...Also, villain can't have 1 pair + oesd's here so ignore that...still doesn't change the EV calcs
So, if villain's flop range for said actions is : 99, 77, T8s, 97s, 86s, 65s, and 54s then your EV for calling his shove is +3.86

If you add in the suited aces of A9s-A2s, then calling yields EV of + 5.11

See... how when you look at the range this is much more difficult decision than just auto shipping. I don't think you include suited aces besides A9, doubt he 4-bet shoves A3s for example. I also really, really discount overpairs as well as I think he's good enough to fold to a 3-bet on the flop.

A3s would be a strong shove on that flop. It's a pair plus nut flush draw and an overcard. Even if you toss out every suited ace except for A9s, it's still a profitable call.

So, if villain is doing these flop actions with a range of EXACTLY 99, 77, A9s, T8s, 97s, 86s, 65s, and 54s hero calling has EV of + 5.11
Even without A9s, it's still profitable to call with EV of + 3.86

I mean, you have to be awfully darn SURE villain is only doing this with a range of 99, 77, T8s, 86s, 65s, and 54s. Calling that shove range is EV of - .68 Simply add in that ONE hand of 97s (giving villain 2 pair) and you have a positive EV situation.

My conclusion is that at worst, calling villain's shove here is only slightly negative EV and at best, it's very positive EV.

I have the 3s and I don't think V has 54s or 65s in his range, I do think top 2 is in his range.

LOL, I understand you have the 3's and that has been accounted for. No 65s or 54s in villain's range? Really? He's on the button and entered the pot 3 handed preflop with a full stack. I don't think it's realistic to drop those from his range.

Nonetheless, let's try it WITHOUT 65s and 54s as you suggest...
IF villain's range is JUST 99, 77, T8s, 97s, and 86s...your EV for calling his shove is + 1.37

We can play these games all day...You can keep whittling his range down until your call becomes negative EV. If that makes you feel better, go ahead. I think it's better to assign a realistic range to villain and go from there. Sure, sometimes he will have top set and have you smoked but that won't ALWAYS be the case. Sometimes, villain will show up with combo draws and 2 pair. It's these times that make calling here profitable. Think long term.

He doesn't always 4-bet shove with top 2, or with all of those draws. I read your old posts, you play 4NL, if you don't know how 25NL plays, you probably aren't in a position to comment on the way a game plays. And no you didn't account for the 3 of spades because you mention it specifically in the post above.

The whole point is that the V's 4-bet ship range is extremely narrow. There's a difference between how 4NL and 25NL play (not that im implying 25NL is that tough or hard, but it certainly is a lot tougher than 4NL). A 4-bet ship range on the flop is going to be extremely narrow especially if his raise cb% is low to begin with (Which I will have to check once I get home).

This, agreed on all points, even the one about Tobe.

The raise flop cbet is very important here and surely you should be able to provide us with a lot more info after 10k hands. After all if you think he's possible doing this with strong draws, straight or flush w/e it is, I'm probably not folding. How ever, I agree that his 4b shipping range will mainly consists out of sets and therefore I might fold.

its 25nl. just call... if he has a bigger set you still have 1 out lol.

Why did you 3bet and put in 40% of your stack if you planned on folding to a jam? Do you think he has a flatting range and were targeting that?

Yes, if he has a draw, I expect him to flat. If he was raising with a draw then no way am I giving a card for his own price. He's going to pay more.

And I never said I was planning on folding or whether I did fold or not.

I'll post results later, but this is me reviewing the hand afterwards and comparing it to my thought process at the time.

The fact you have the 3's has been accounted for in the EV calculation. You seem convinced villain had the higher set. In this case, maybe he did...but what about the other times when villain has various combo-draws or, god forbid, a bluff? You give hardly any weight to those scenarios. The EV calcs I ran show that IF villain has just ONE overpair or bluff in his range, it's a MASSIVELY profitable call for you. Even if he's just doing this with VERY REASONABLE hands like 2 pair, sets, and strong combo-draws, you have a profitable call. It just seems very unreasonable to assume villain will NEVER have combo-draws here.

I don't think he ever expects me to fold, so I highly, highly doubt he's bluffing. This guy is solid winner over a big sample size, so I doubt there are any overpairs in his range either.

I never said he "never" has combo draws, but I do think they need to be discounted slightly, since again, I don't think he expects/wants me to fold.