25NL 2 NF on a paired board vs river shove

[chaser3]

Merge - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

MP: $25.00
MP+1: $26.36
LP: $19.30
CO: $34.25
Hero (BTN): $29.85
SB: $27.51
BB: $58.49
UTG: $25.92
UTG+1: $6.14

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has K Q

UTG raises to $0.70, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.70, SB calls $0.60, fold

Flop: ($2.35, 3 players) 9 2 2
SB checks, UTG bets $1.76, Hero calls $1.76, fold

Turn: ($5.87, 2 players) T
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.91, UTG calls $3.91

River: ($13.69, 2 players) J
UTG checks, Hero bets $9.76, UTG raises to $19.55 and is all-in, Hero?

Is this a snap? We're getting 3-1 and we've put in more than half our stack, so we have to call this right?

V is 14.75/11 over 1500 hands. Don't have any specific reads on V though, aka no reg on reg history for the most part.

[pagepuga]

Ez fold, he has a boat. And bet river smaller.

[MartL]

What range do you assign the villain for how he plays the turn op?

[bleffo19]

Originally Posted by pagepuga

Ez fold, he has a boat. And bet river smaller.

so much this

Originally Posted by MartL

What range do you assign the villain for how he plays the river op?

maybe this would be a slightly more relevant question

[MartL]

Originally Posted by bleffo19

maybe this would be a slightly more relevant question

I think his river range is really easy, I think is Turn range is more interesting been a 14/11 reg.

[chaser3]

So we're only putting boats in his range?

If he rivered a boat, he plays the hand pretty poorly, checking calling OOP on the turn. If he flopped it, I don't think he plays it this way. TT does make sense though.

I mean I guess there aren't really any straights in his range given he opened UTG and that he would never check raise on a paired/flushed board.

[NL_Niels]

Board is about as wet as it can get and you show strength on each street. I can't imagine villain having anything else than a boat, either OTF or OTT.

[NJD77]

He has a boat a lot but I'm kinda sticky so I don't fold much here tbh.

[NJD77]

Originally Posted by MartL

I think his river range is really easy, I think is Turn range is more interesting been a 14/11 reg.

I really don't think there's that much difference between his turn and river range once he check calls tbh. Maybe you can throw in AA/KK/QQ on the turn along with a few NFDs, but that's about it.

[MartL]

Originally Posted by NJD77

I really don't think there's that much difference between his turn and river range once he check calls tbh. Maybe you can throw in AA/KK/QQ on the turn along with a few NFDs, but that's about it.

I thought nut FD but im not sure he even opens AJs. His range on the turn is pretty much AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/99/22. If he has overs he is scared of the flush and goes in to fish reg mode of check/call rather than bet/fold. Unfortunately for OP one of those overs gets there.

[chaser3]

Originally Posted by MartL

I thought nut FD but im not sure he even opens AJs. His range on the turn is pretty much AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/99/22. If he has overs he is scared of the flush and goes in to fish reg mode of check/call rather than bet/fold. Unfortunately for OP one of those overs gets there.

Can you clarify why it's better for V to b/f rather than c/c?

By overs do you mean overcards or an overpair?

[DanielLiu]

Do you think he can do this with an overpair+bluff more often than a boat? If YOU THINK he can then call.

V is 14.75/11 over 1500 hands. Don't have any specific reads on V though,
You've seen his play over 1500 hands. . if you can't even figure out if he can c/r bluff river sometimes, or even c/r river with "x set of hands" or hell even if he's aggro/bluff happy. . .


When in doubt, fold w/o best hand to a river c/rai from UTG.