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50nl: Are we ever good here ? 50nl: Are we ever good here ?

12-09-2009 , 12:02 PM
Villain knows what he's doing. Not much history between us.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/0.50 Hold'em Cash Games, 6 Players
Hand Converter by Pokerhand.org

Board:
UTG: $69.40
UTG+1: $50
Hero: $50
Button: $149.60
SB: $59
BB: $22.10

Dealt to CO A 4

Pre-flop:
(1 folds), Hero raises to $1.50, Button calls $1.50, (2 folds)

Flop: ($3.75) 3 5 9 (3 Players)
Hero bets $2, Button calls $2

Turn: ($7.75) 7 (3 Players)
Hero checks, Button bets $4, Hero calls $4

River: ($15.75) A (3 Players)
Hero checks, Button bets $15.50, Hero ?
50nl: Are we ever good here ? Quote
12-09-2009 , 12:08 PM
Bet turn, don't check/call, just keep semi bluffing, if he raises you can fold.
He might already fold and you got good equity for a 6 or club on river if he calls.
50nl: Are we ever good here ? Quote
12-09-2009 , 12:11 PM
I bet more on flop, bet turn and prob shove if he raises. Folding is weaksauce; with 8 straight outs and 9 flush outs we can never be in too bad a shape.

Oops counted 2 outs twice (flush + straight) but yea 15 outs like uppie said :P

Last edited by Clar17y; 12-09-2009 at 12:15 PM. Reason: learning to count odds lol
50nl: Are we ever good here ? Quote
12-09-2009 , 12:14 PM
I think raising the turn is best or betting 4 ourselves. I am willing to get it in. we have at min 15 good outs possibly 18 outs. Some of the time we have the best hand even some of the time he folds better. Some of the time he calls with worse flush draws or str8 draws. vs that range i think our equity is to high not to aleast make strong semi bluff.
50nl: Are we ever good here ? Quote
12-09-2009 , 12:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clar17y
I bet more on flop, bet turn and prob shove if he raises. Folding is weaksauce; with 8 straight outs and 9 flush outs we can never be in too bad a shape.
It doesn't affect your point much but you should remember this is 15 outs and not 17, because two cards accomplish both at once.

I would bet more like $3 on the flop, and I'd double barrel this turn, particularly since you now have a double gutter. If you do get raised, you will often have the odds to call and have a look at the last card, particularly since the straights have a high probability of getting paid off (flushes less so.) EDIT: I'm unconvinced you fold much that beats you by bet/3betting the turn if it comes to that, and if you don't then the equity isn't good enough to make that a great move.

On the river, it's a fairly tough decision. I am slightly leaning towards calling simply because you played your hand in a fashion that suggests either a draw or only modest strength on the turn, and a lot of people will reflexively bet that A on the river as a result. There is a possibility that you got floated by a better A or that this is a strangely played set, but I think it's crap just often enough for a call to be okay here.
50nl: Are we ever good here ? Quote
12-09-2009 , 12:21 PM
I agree with you guys. I should have played it a with a bit more aggression.
50nl: Are we ever good here ? Quote
12-09-2009 , 12:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gumpzilla
It doesn't affect your point much but you should remember this is 15 outs and not 17, because two cards accomplish both at once.

I would bet more like $3 on the flop, and I'd double barrel this turn, particularly since you now have a double gutter. If you do get raised, you will often have the odds to call and have a look at the last card, particularly since the straights have a high probability of getting paid off (flushes less so.) EDIT: I'm unconvinced you fold much that beats you by bet/3betting the turn if it comes to that, and if you don't then the equity isn't good enough to make that a great move.

On the river, it's a fairly tough decision. I am slightly leaning towards calling simply because you played your hand in a fashion that suggests either a draw or only modest strength on the turn, and a lot of people will reflexively bet that A on the river as a result. There is a possibility that you got floated by a better A or that this is a strangely played set, but I think it's crap just often enough for a call to be okay here.
Thanks noted already about outs.

Why are we bet/calling turn? What are we doing when turn bricks? Also our hand is super face up if a club comes and we push / lead out and thinking players will prob check back the river if we check so we only get value from a 2 or 6 coming that isn't a club.

Shove while we still have a lot of equity and possible FE imo.

Btw if he flats and river comes the same (Ace) I prob c/call a decent amount to let him bet missed draws and overpairs.

Last edited by Clar17y; 12-09-2009 at 12:24 PM. Reason: if he just calls..
50nl: Are we ever good here ? Quote
12-09-2009 , 12:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clar17y
Why are we bet/calling turn? What are we doing when turn bricks? Also our hand is super face up if a club comes and we push / lead out and thinking players will prob check back the river if we check so we only get value from a 2 or 6 coming that isn't a club.

Shove while we still have a lot of equity and possible FE imo.
My primary point is that I don't think you have that much FE at all against the range of hands that is floating the flop and raising a turn lead, barring history with the opponent.
50nl: Are we ever good here ? Quote
12-09-2009 , 12:34 PM
Yeah I agree that normally when they raise turn they aren't doing it to fold but I can't see what would raise the turn that wouldn't raise the flop unless it's exactly 77.
50nl: Are we ever good here ? Quote
12-09-2009 , 01:31 PM
I call river....It looks like he wants a fold here.
50nl: Are we ever good here ? Quote
12-09-2009 , 01:45 PM
as played call

i would c/r turn
50nl: Are we ever good here ? Quote
12-09-2009 , 01:49 PM
What sucks here is you've repped a weak hand and it's hard to tell if a 50NL villain is exploiting you or not.If villain was good,he'd know your range is weak on the river,so you'd have to call here at least some % of the time when you're almost at the top of your range.
50nl: Are we ever good here ? Quote
12-09-2009 , 01:51 PM
Bet bigger on the flop.

x/r the turn.
50nl: Are we ever good here ? Quote
12-09-2009 , 01:59 PM
there are lots of moronish ******s at the micros so its hard to get a good guess at his hand here.
As played its totally ugly .. I think he will problably not have just a nine or some kind of TT/JJ hand but you can never know.

but I would think about what his range is with what he would call the flop with and then decide wether I want to see a showdown or not. I mean you check the turn and you have absolutely NO information about his range. He could peel with an underpair, with overcards, with just a pair, with set, with two pair whatsoever and on the turn his bet cant be interpreted ..

Dunno what is better here in the spot tbh .. just bet the turn and then you can savely c/c the river imo
50nl: Are we ever good here ? Quote
12-09-2009 , 02:01 PM
HMMM VILLAIN BETS POT ON A SCARECARD LOLOLOL VALUEBET???

Easy snap call on river.

BTW his range is weakish on the flop and turn. He'd raise the flop with a strong hand. He also bets all his weakish range on the turn which is why we should x/r instead of betting.
50nl: Are we ever good here ? Quote
12-09-2009 , 02:05 PM
i wouldve bet $3 on the flop and barreled the turn. if i check the turn its to x/r. as played call river. his bet amount on this scare card looks bluffy.
50nl: Are we ever good here ? Quote
12-09-2009 , 02:16 PM
I think im prolly calling this riv but Im not that happy about it. There are a lot of draws that missed and the A is a good card to rep if u miss a draw and want to take down the pot but, u have a bad A and Villain could have backed into that A or put u on A that has to call a pot bet to get value from his two pair +. b/shoving turn is a good option and so is b/c IMO but i think that is really player dependent on which one is better. I dont think u can ever really fold this turn readless. Again, Im prolly calling riv here, villain really polarizes his range here IMO
50nl: Are we ever good here ? Quote
12-09-2009 , 03:06 PM
Bet turn, bet river.
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