SB's stats:
14/9 (143 hands)
3bet = 1.7 (60)
Fold to flop cbet = 71 (7)
Afq = 33 (33)


BB's stats:
20/14 (1.8k)
3bet = 3.6
Fold to flop cbet = 59 (68)
Fold to turn cbet = 44 (9)
Afq = 33
I didn't have any notes on him before this hand, which is odd when you consider how many hands I have on him. I'm going to have a look through my database tonight for anything that might help next time...


Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #29198961

MP1: $13.22 (82.6 bb)
Hero (MP2): $16 (100 bb)
MP3: $16 (100 bb)
CO: $11.89 (74.3 bb)
BTN: $16.55 (103.4 bb)
SB: $15.47 (96.7 bb)
BB: $31.37 (196.1 bb)
UTG+1: $16.74 (104.6 bb)
UTG+2: $11.20 (70 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K A
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.48, 3 folds, SB calls $0.40, BB calls $0.32

Flop: ($1.44) Q 9 J (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.88, SB folds, BB calls $0.88

I was unsure about cbetting. I decided to go for it for the following reasons

• I block the nut flush. This decreases the number of draws in my opponent's range and increases my fold equity (I think, anyone dissagree?).
• I have a gutshot to the nuts and backdoor nut flush draw
• Made straights (KT & T8) are fairly unlikely.

Looking at it now I think hands like QJ and JT make up a lot of my opponent's range. Does anyone prefer checking back?

Turn: ($3.20) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero?

I have some showdown value now but I'm now behind Tx. Can I barrel or should I check back? If I do check back how should I react to a river bet If I don't hit a straight?

I was also wondering what the plan should be if the turn King was a ?

Thanks for any responses.

I don't know how helpful I'll be on this one, but since these situations come up so often with AK, I thought I'd plug the ranges into Equilab and see where this stands.


pf - I took the VPIP and removed the obvious 3-bet hands and did a little rearranging for the 20% to include all the suited aces and pocket pairs and remove some of the weaker hands that ppl usually fold

Hero AK = 41%
BB 20% (ex AA-QQ,AKs) = 29%
SB 14% (ex AA-QQ, AKs) = 30%

Pot= 9bb, SPR = approx 10.5

Flop Q9J

Hero AK = 27%
BB 20% (ex AA-QQ,AKs) = 35%
SB 14% (ex AA-QQ, AKs) = 38%

I think this is probably a good spot for a c-bet, because it might fold out the pocket pairs, which are currently ahead of you and are most likely not calling on this ugly board. You have decent equity, and a lot of room to improve. This flop does hit a ton of hands in both player's calling range, so I wouldn't expect a c-bet to fold out both players.

When the BB calls, I made some presumptions that may or may not be true - I presumed that he would call only with a pair of jacks or better or a pair + draw, OESD, flush draw. I left in ATo and removed the suited aces, since as you said he can't be calling with A hands. I also left in hands he would probably raise (2 pair and sets). There's no air in there, either. A player who will check-call and then reverse-float oop is pretty rare, so I ignored air. His flop fold to c-bet stats are pretty consistent with a player who folds the flop when he misses.

Flop calling range:
JJ-88,AQs-ATs,KTs+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,Kh9h,Kh8h,ATo+,KJo+,QJo,JTo

Hero: 34%
BB: 66%

Turn K - apparently does nothing to your equity.

Hero: 34%
BB: 66%

If the turn were K

Hero: 46%
BB: 54%

The fact that the BB checked to you is hard to interpret. The board has gotten ugly, and you might expect a lot of checks from moderate strength hands.

I guess the equity after the K should imply that you shouldn't expect to be pushing much out with a bet. I think you have no fold equity, making this a bad barrel card. You picked up some SDV here, now beating all other one pair hands, I think I'd probably take the free river. From a pure equity perspective, putting more money in doesn't make sense since you do not have an equity advantage. If you get raised, you're probably in bad shape and aren't drawing to many outs.

K might make for a bet, since with the flush on the board, he can have almost no flush draws in his range ( AKQJ are all accounted for). From a pure equity standpoint, I think you're close enough to 50/50 that this wouldn't be a money losing proposition, and if he raises you on the turn, you might be getting the proper odds to draw at a gutshot and nut flush.

T8s did not fall into the calling range on equilab. I added it back in at the end and it didn't change the equities at all.

The river is really going to depend on river card, and bet size if he bets into you. On a blank river, I don't imagine this opponent would be value betting from oop anything worse than a pair of kings.