In this spot, I decided to slowplay kings, because villain had 100% fold to 3bet. Because the flop was so dry, I decided to just call, so he could bet the turn again with worse hands like AQ or even pure bluffs from hands with no equity. On the river I am a little concerned he full pots it, but I think he can still do this with TPTK and I think it's hard for him to get away from my x/r since I would normally 3bet QQ+. Is my reasoning ok here?

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 7.50, PFR: 7.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 41)
SB: 176.8 BB (VPIP: 13.58, PFR: 7.41, 3Bet Preflop: 4.08, Hands: 245)
Hero (BB): 119 BB
UTG: 105 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 4.44, Hands: 201)
UTG+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 11.74, PFR: 10.87, 3Bet Preflop: 3.49, Hands: 235)
UTG+2: 137.4 BB (VPIP: 27.14, PFR: 17.14, 3Bet Preflop: 12.90, Hands: 71)
MP: 76.9 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
MP+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.89, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 38)
CO: 102.4 BB (VPIP: 25.83, PFR: 19.17, 3Bet Preflop: 5.45, Hands: 121)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 5 4 Q
Hero checks, BTN bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

Turn: (14.5 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, BTN bets 8 BB, Hero calls 8 BB

River: (30.5 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero checks, BTN bets 29.1 BB, Hero raises to 104 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 55.9 BB and is all-in

100% fold to 3bet after 41 hands probably means he's folded to one 3bet so I wouldn't pay too much attention to that stat. Once he pots the river you can call but a shove is very spewy.

As badgers_uk says, fold to 3bet after 40 hands is a worthless stat, and we shouldn't be basing our line on it. Even players with a high overall fold to 3bet will call more widely OTB when facing a 3 bet out of the blinds. Not 3betting premiums BvB is missing value.

I think in general that one of the biggest mistakes I see from inexperienced players on this board is taking sub-optimal non-standard lines based on meaningless stats that are nowhere near converging.

Villain's river sizing doesn't look like TPTK to me. Looks like he either has the nuts or air, so we're only getting called when we're behind.

If:

• You're playing micro stakes FR
• Villain seems tight
• Effective stacks are 100BB
• It's not a 3 or 4 bet pot preflop

Then you don't want to be getting to SD all in with a one pair hand.

I call or raise the river, depending on how aggresive he is on that street. I usually take a look at afq on the river.

How useful do you think river AFq is going to be in a 41 hand sample?

one more reason to just call...

pretty sure river has to be fold as played, no way he is betting pot w AQ on the river, very much doubt that villain is the type to randomly barrel off AJss, KJss...

Prime spot to 3b pre! He played 3/40 hands, chances are, he's not FOS too often. So 3b/5b, get it in! He probably folded one of those 3 hands to a 3b, which tells you nothing, except he has a r/f range. (What a revelation!)

River is a call imo. You're gonna be behind quite a bit, but judging from what I'm seeing, he might have seen you take weird lines, which might lead him to believe, he could vbet TPTK for full pot.
The shove is atrocious. You have a bluffcatcher, you're only getting called by better!

I call river, we don't have enough on the villain to discount AQ so assuming he never bluffs we have 12 combos we beat (AQ), split 1 combo of KK and lose to 12 combos (AA, 55, 44). We only need to be good 33% so it's a call for me.

OTOH I am a station and if you discount TPTK down to 6 combos it's marginal so I guess a fold isn't terrible. You're probably not getting exploited enough at 10NL to force a call, but I still do.

Raising river is terrible.

Not 3betting pre is terrible here as well, you are just burning Sklansky bucks or melting Sklanksky dimes if you prefer.

Very much doubt we can give villain all AQ combos plus you left out QQ,88,76s in the range of hands that he could def be playing this way...

So it really comes down to a) does he pot all AQ combos on the river? In that case river is really close:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

16,465,447 games 5.195 secs 3,169,479 games/sec

Board: Qc 5s 4d 8s 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.716% 34.29% 01.43% 5646179 234766.50 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 64.284% 62.86% 01.43% 10350548 234773.00 { QQ+, 88, 55-44, AQs, 76s, AQo }

Taking out some of the AQo combos, our equity drops massively though:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

16,465,447 games 5.195 secs 3,169,479 games/sec

Board: Qc 5s 4d 8s 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.716% 34.29% 01.43% 5646179 234766.50 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 64.284% 62.86% 01.43% 10350548 234773.00 { QQ+, 88, 55-44, AQs, 76s, AQo }

At the same time, this would mean that villain has zero bluff combos in his range (which might actually be the case, eps w river action), but for the sake of argument let's add the two "most likely" bluff combos to his range:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

6,927,680 games 2.247 secs 3,083,079 games/sec

Board: Qc 5s 4d 8s 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.001% 23.34% 01.66% 1616809 115333.00 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 74.999% 73.34% 01.66% 5081072 115339.50 { QQ+, 88, 55-44, AQs, JsTs, Ts9s, 76s, AdQh, AhQd }

And once more with all AQ combos:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

7,887,913 games 2.481 secs 3,179,328 games/sec

Board: Qc 5s 4d 8s 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.183% 37.84% 01.34% 2984879 106037.00 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 60.817% 59.48% 01.34% 4691771 106045.00 { QQ+, 88, 55-44, AQs, JsTs, Ts9s, 76s, AQo }

To sum this up:
River is a marginal call at best assuming that villain 1) ALWAYS value bets pot w/ AQ here and/or 2) has bluffs in his range.

Personally, I think that 1) is very very unlikely when also taking bet sizing into consideration.
2) Is actually more likely then 1) imo but assuming that we say 1) is not the case then we still don't have enough equity to call profitably.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

13,902,813 games 4.462 secs 3,115,825 games/sec

Board: Qc 5s 4d 8s 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.016% 23.35% 01.66% 3246637 231471.50 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 74.984% 73.32% 01.66% 10194078 231484.00 { QQ+, 88, 55-44, AQs, JsTs, Ts9s, 76s, AdQh, AhQd }