Don't have stats on villain but considering we are playing on a rake free site that uses MMORPG gold as a currency, it is relatively safe to assume that villain is pretty bad at poker. The rest of the table are "fun players" with only 1 or 2 playing a TAg(ish) strategy.

10nl 7 handed

Hero UTG 200bb - A K, Biggest winning reg at this stake on this site, probably viewed as very solid (but they dont' really know what solid is)
Villain 1 CO 100bb - have played ~200 hands with this player, roughly 50% of them 3/4 handed. Have seen him bluff on the river more than once in questionable spots, he has also made passive plays with weak holdings on wet boards. He seems like a pretty erratic fish.
Villain 2 HJ 100bb - absolute fish
Villain 3 BB 50bb - no idea but probaby terrible
Rest of table 25-400bb - mostly fish

Hero raises 2.5x, HJ calls, CO calls, BB calls.

Flop 10.5bb

K 7 7

BB checks, Hero bets 5.25bb, HJ folds, CO calls, BB folds.

Turn 21bb

3

Hero bets 13bb, CO calls.

River 47bb

2 effective stacks 79.25bb

Hero checks, villain bets all in, Hero calls

i rather check call flop and go for value on the river.

Making fancy plays does not necessarily include shoving 2x pot on the river as a bluff. Especially at the micro's I've felt that big overshoves are nearly always nutted hands.

That being said, with all info on this player this might still be a call.

I'd expect this to be 7x alot of the time. Fold for me.

How do we feel about jamming river?

If we get to the river and I jam instead of checking we are jamming into a range that looks roughly like A2c-AcTc, 5c6c-JcQc, 8c6c-QcTc, K9s+, KJo+, A7s, 75s, 67s, 78s, 97s, and 77.

Vs that range we have around 80% equity. With a SPR of 1.53 do we think jamming is better than bet/fold? I think bet/call is very bad...

Note: That range could include some random flush draw hands and maybe a couple more 7x, but I don't think those hands make much difference here.

I like your line on all the streets but I think since villain is over betting the river id fold

Its a bit late for me to be doing the maths (and I'm also a bit rusty so correct me if I'm wrong) but you are saying that having 80% equity is a good enough reason to jam the river. But do you not need to account for the fact the villain will only ever call you with a 7 or maybe a strong K
(so even through you have 80% equity against his range on the river you may only have 10% equity against his calling range)


I think I would check and call a reasonable sized bet. Like 0-30bb. I am folding to this jam