thx

You should post your stats in the 6max forum. This forum is for fullring strat and the 2 games are significantly different.

People misuse sport stats all the time and it's one of my pet peeves. It drives me nuts when people cite passer efficiency ratings for QBs for 1 game or a pitcher's ERA for a game. To get a true representation you need a large sample. And the more involved the stat is, the bigger the sample you need. Also the more that luck or circumstance affects the stats, the larger sample you will need. For example, 'Foul shooting %' is a stat that doesn't need a large sample. There is very little luck involved and circumstance shouldn't change the results much. Still it is not unheard of for a player to 'get hot' shooting frees and skew his true stats.

In poker we have a large degree of luck (and not just in terms of losing to a 2-outer). We also have positional differences that affect your stats. We also have tilt factors, game conditions, and even seating arrangement that affect your stats. With so much affecting what your stats look like, it's difficult to use them to get a picture of your skills without a very large sample. Ideally you'll have a sample that mirrors what you can expect to occur over the long haul. The more involved the stat, teh larger the sample you need.

1000 hand sample is really nothing. It's quite easy to 'run hot' for 1000 hands and have an abnormal number of top quality hands in position (or to be 'card dead' for a period). These hands will greatly affect your stats for that period, and while it may not affect your VPIP/PFR as much, you simply can't put much faith in deeper stats like 'VPIP by position' , 'Aggression factor' or '3bet %'. It's akin to comparing 2 point guards shooting % for a game when one played the Celtics and the other played the Raptors.

Shark, I can't read your graphs. Can you try re-posting them?

i dont know how to make them any more clear. This happens every time i try to post screenshots. Dont know whats going wrong.

i play only full ring

It looks like you use the 'thumbnail size' url on imageshack. Try using the fullsize url.

Sorry, I saw stats from only 6 positions, I didn't notice that 2 seats are grouped together in EP and MP. Pele made some good points in his post.

It does look like you play a bit passive. Your 3bet% is a bit low, your PFR% is a little low, and your WTSD is quite high. If I was your opponent I would typecast you as someone who doesn't like to be bluffed and is a calling station. Try to focus on your opponent's range and make a committment.

So variance / deviation / convergence is the reason for the large sample. OK. But as you said, someone playing 80/20, we don't need 10k hands to know he's loose. So when people complain that sample size is too small, it is only really true for the stats coming from much rarer events liek raising or cbetting (compared to just playing hands).

Wouldn't adding standard deviations to poker software cure this problem? If someone's aggression factor is 1.79 +/- 0.01, even if it's over 100 hands, wouldn't you be able to trust that number, whereas if it were 1.79 +/- 0.58, you wouldn't?

Side note: why don't poker tracking softwares provide stats on the average bet sizes, for example w.r.t. position, flop/turn/river, etc. Wouldn't that be interesting?

If someone is playing 80/20, we can assume he's loose after 20 hands, but as the number of hands we have on Villain mounts, we can be more and more sure our assumption is correct. My stats last night looked like 37/30 for a while because the deck hit me in the face when I landed on the table. I wasn't back close to my normal stats for almost a hundred hands. When analyzing your own game, you want enough hands to expose all the patterns of your play, so that you can eliminate mistakes you make over and over, rather than a short stretch that might be characterized by a larger-than-normal number of bad/good cards where your stats might look screwy but you were actually playing mostly correctly for the circumstances.

Funny thing is, the number of hands you have to analyze will be what normally makes this Standard Deviation number smaller. SD is the measure of variance in the sample, and as the sample size grows, variance normally decreases. So, having more hands = smaller standard deviation.

Might not be helpful. Many variables are in play, like no. of players seeing Flop, Turn or River; a loose-aggressive table would inflate that number in a way that would make it misleading. Averages of certain measures don't always tell you much. There is no substitute for sessions reviews to analyze player actions and bet sizing on hands that showdown. PT3 has a number of ways to break down history by streets, so you could play with that and see if you find anything.

Hey..I play ~1k hands a day, 25nl, 5 tables.

The problems I know of right now are: Limping SB when I shouldn't, Not raising enough pf in lp, and I feel like I don't 3bet enough. I'm working on these but anything you see to help me out would be great. Anything about my stats stand out to you?

some specific things:

1. do I play KQ too much or is that just bad luck?
2. SB: I limp alot with decent hands (hands like 68s, AragS, 10Qo..etc) IF there are alot of limpers. Besides that I raise the BB if its folded to me with alot of decent hands, and fold most hands with little limpers in front.
3. stupid to ask but I find myself open limping EP (even utg) with med suited connectors like 67s-J10s. And THEN calling a 3-4bb raise from a lp player. I shouldnt do either. Right?

Thank you guys for this thread, I bought HEM and tried to follow your advice to work my way to decent stats, raising more, paying atttention to position, and what's more. It helped me to go from breakeven to a small winner. I am now moving to 50nl to give it a try, going back to 25nl when things go bad. Here are my 25nl stats. I played 2 or 3 tables simultaneously.





Comments and tips appreciated of course !

Answers in bold...

- Try to be a little more aggressive from LP, you are a bit to passive IMO.
- Learning when to 3Bet more is something I'm having a hard time to do myself. Check out the stickies, there are some good stuff there.
Sounded Simple's The joys 3-Betting Light from Blinds
- Can't see any huge leaks.

Looks good!

What's your BR? IMO I would wait until having a BR of 15xBI ($750) before doing shots at 50NL. 20xBI would be even better. Then if you go cold and go below 15xBI, drop back to 25NL.

Thanks, that's exactly what I was planning with the BR. I had the feeling I was calling a little too much and not 3betting enough, but maybe these are not enough hands to say something about that.

Looks like they respect raises more @ 50NL. Hopefully that will lead to less variance.

yeah, i moved to 400NL and things looks good there, you should try

Allright I was sounding stupid. Pls keep in mind that English is not everybody's native language here. What I meant to say is that they seem to call my raises less often and they also seem a little more predictable when they do. I used to lose a lot of chips to people who call my raise with K6 and then hitting tp, didn't see that so far at 50nl. So less variance perhaps because I have to gamble less, guessing their weird cards.
But maybe it's just because I'm a new player there, so they want somebody else to call my raises.

Anyway, after posting my 25nl stats here I moved on to 50nl and am on a massive heater, +3BI in less than 1000 hands.

And I am still interested in constructive comments on my stats, there must be tons of leaks.

your limping way to much.

I would first like to thank mpethybridge for analyzing my stats a while ago. I know there is so much material all over p2p but feedback on my own stats is always a big help. Before I was a marginal 1.5 ptbb/100 winner over 130k hands and am now at 4.36 over the last 70k. But there is still a leak I need to plug which is non-showdown pots. Here a couple of my graphs showing the amount I am bleeding out of the blinds.

Graph with blinds:



Without blinds:



The plan I am about to put in action is this:

* 3bet smart LAGs more often when they are raising from any position
*3bet TAGs more often when they raise from HJ+
*Fold to nits
*Fold to donks
*Pay more attention to steal attempts when multi-tabling

Is this the right way to go about it?

Don't change your game just to make your red line look better. You are a winning player. Try 3betting LAGs and TAGs as you said but make sure it doesn't affect your overall game.

Edit: I think there is a thread about 3-betting light from the blinds, just can't find it atm.

I'm in a rut and I need some help. Been grinding away at 50NL for awhile now, with occasional shots at 100NL. I'm rolled for 100NL, but I want to be able to beat 50NL with consistency and I'm having trouble doing that right now.

From Jan 1st - Oct 1st, I logged roughly 112K hands. Not much for 10 months, I know, but most came from the summer.
Stats for first 112K hands:


Graph for first 112K hands:


Graph for 112K in blinds only:


After doing some homework, I made a few changes to my play. 2.02bb/100 hands didn't seem like my best and I knew I could get that to 3-4 atleast. It seemed like my non-showdown pots were holding me back so I made a few changes to my game:

-Opened up slightly in LP while tightening up in EP.
-3bet more often
-Defended my blinds more often
-Started cbetting the flop and turn more
-Went to showdown more often.. thought I was getting pushed off hands to much


This is the next 30K hands over the last 2+months:


Graph of last 30k:


Graph of last 30K, blinds only:


Now I just want to go back to my old game and redo things from there, I feel lost with this style of play. No confidence, nothing. It feels like I'm just giving away money from the blinds.. 3bets plus flop cbets always get called it seems like, and I never have a hand to go further with it. Seems like I would be better off just letting them have my blinds every single time.

I don't want to blame this on variance.. as much as I wanna say I'm running bad as hell, something has to stand out in my stats to someone. If I do go back to my old style, it doesn't feel like I'll ever improve as a player.. and I'm not even sure my old style works past 50NL.

Any comments at all appreciated.

I'm a newbie myself, but I did beat 25nl allright. Your stats look somewhat like mine, except your WTSD is only 21, mine is 26 or so. I have not been mass-tabling though, only 3-tabling or so. What helped me when I had a bad stretch like this was to shut down auto-pilot and go back to single-tabling: On every missed flop consciously asking myself: What stronger hands will fold if I bet? And on every flop I hit: What weaker hands will call my bet? How likely are they? Do I want to bloat the pot? And make notes, for instance if you see them calling bets with ace high. I also studied my old hands with those questions, really tedious work, but I found a good many opportunities for improvement. After doing this for a while it became more automatic and I was able to classify players faster: some you need to cbet, some you don't, and so it was possible to add more tables again. HTH.

As you have noticed you are leaking from the BB. Are you trying to hard to defend the blinds. There are some good threads around the forum about play from the blinds. Use the search function and check the stickies.

Have you read this post ITT?

I still think you are a bit passive postflop and think that your flop CB% could be a bit higher.

Hi. first of all, i think this is a great thread. thank you to the OP and thanks to all those who have contributed to helping people so far. i have a graph and some stats here mainly for NL10. Since i first joined 2+2, i have stopped losing, and nor am i at break even. however, im still not doing well enough to satisfy me. i have a sample size of 10K hands, and im hoping to plug some leaks. i have been (at most times) just playing ABC poker against the maniacs and trying to play a bit more interestingly against more clever opponents.


I'm not sure if this works. havent uploaded pictures before, but i'll give it a try.













thanks for reading.

gruff

This is the FR stats and analysis thread and I'm not sure you will get good answers ITT based on the fact you play 6-max. Maybe you should try and post some of your questions in the non FR threads.

I'm not a 6-max expert, but shouldn't you open up more in LP? At the moment you only seem to open up OTB, not in CO and HJ.