(Twoplustwo hand converter not working for me, I pasted in every format Pokertracker had).

I way over play AKo here. I generally don't play AK as an all in pre , but I allowed this player to get to me a little. Not long before this (he hadn't been at table long, only 30 hands of history with him), he had raised from co, I three bet from button with AQo, he 4 bets me and I fold.

So now an orbit or two later (he had been pretty active), this happens:

My stats: vp19 af13 (after 47 hands at this table)
Villain's stats: vp23 af13 (after 30 hands at this table. normal stats to me, so my perception of his excessive aggression was clearly wrong here).

9 Handed

Seat 1: zzz99888 ($1.71)
Seat 4: Wizard21 ($5.48)
Seat 5: tr33f1ddy ($10.82)

Button is seat 4

tr33f1ddy (me): posts small blind $0.02

*** HOLE CARDS ***

zzz99888 (mp): raises $0.10

Wizard21 (villian):dealt AA raises $0.25

tr33f1ddy: dealt [A K] raises $0.88

zzz99888: folds

Wizard21: raises $1.50

tr33f1ddy: raises all-in $9.92

Wizard21: calls all-in $3.73

*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: $10.56
Board: 7 3 2 K 9
Seat 4: Wizard21 won $10.56
Seat 5: tr33f1ddy lost -$5.48

___

Looking back at hand, I think I have two options: 1) Just call and see a flop since mp is still in the hand and he was the original raiser 2) Four bet smaller and fold to a five bet.

My hand seams too good to fold to the button 3bet, after thinking about this hand I think option 1, just calling is the best. Then fold to button's flop bet. If he checks and I hit a K on turn, that's another problem for me (but that didn't happen of course).

What do you think?

Anyone?

Since villain 3bets and then 5bets i think we have to give him credit for a tight range. So if we say QQ+, AK (and even that might be generous) and removing your blockers you have 38% equity. With the dead money in the pot (and factoring in that villain is short-stacked) you need roughly 38% equity to shove. So based on the numbers and IF (big if) villan has QQ or AK in his range then it's marginal at best.

I think the wiser move here is to flat the 3bet. You have position for post-flop on both of the raisers which is a massive help. 3 betting is great for situations where you have fold equity (villain has high fold to 3bet % or high fold-cbet %) or your range is way ahead of their range. With only 30 hands on him I don't think you can be confident in either of the above being true so it's best to play it a little bit safer.

Oh and to get the HH. Open the hand details screen in PT4. Then click on the small blue button at the top of the window that kinda looks like a square root sign. That'll copy the HH to your clipboard and then you can just paste it in here. (there are options too for hiding results and anonymising player names)

I like your analysis. One point to clarify in what you said: you said I had position on both of the raisers. Actually I was in the sb, so I was out of position. (I probably didn't explain myself well). At the time I think that was one of my reasons for raising and not flatting (that I was out of position). Thanks for you post!

After thinking about what you said, I opened up ProPokerTools and ran those numbers. I haven't done a lot of that so far, but after this I will be. I see now where you get 38% equity with a range of QQ+ and AK there.

I have to start running these situations more often in equity calculators. It's not something i've been doing. THIS IS A BIG HELP! This is why I posted this hand on the forum. I knew there was a better way to think about the hand.

Thanks again!

This would be accurate if you put 100% credibility on this tight range. With very little history you have to add in a "joker factor". At these stakes there are jokers who will shove any pair, some suited connectors... or 85o. The 38% calculation is accurate if you are 100% certain that you have accurately estimated his range, but that is impossible. In practice, 38% is a floor, but you need to figure out the ceiling.

As far as a "better line", I wouldn't 4 bet PF, but you probably end up with the same result anyway. If you flat the 3 bet you are probably going to call his C-bet on the flop, and when the K comes on the turn all the chips are getting in.

Yes, that's a very good point. I've been been in plenty of situations where I've got a villain on a small sample size pinned down to a narrow range based on their actions and my perception of them only for them to show up with something unexpected.