NL25 3Bet donk bet on flop to bluff
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 1
(Anyone help me to move this to Micros Stakes NL? Did not notice that here is Full Ring, sorry, I am new here.)
Hello guys, I just want to share a hand I played at ignition zone poker 6max NL25, and tell my thinking process here.
I forgot some details, just a rough description here,
MP around 25$, raise to 0.75$
Button around 40$ raise to 2.25$
SB(me) around 45$ call 2.25 with 55
Here, I flat called this 3-bet pot planning to hit the set, because the imply odds are good, Button and me are both deep.
MP folds.
flop A K K rainbow
I thought for a while, and decide this is a good chance to bluff, so I bet a little bit more than half pot.
I bet around 3$, Button fold.
Reason I decide to bluff:
Suppose Button was not 3-bet bluffing, then his range should be JJ+ AK, generally.
now the flop has one A and two Ks, then his hand had at least one A or K reduced to: (1KK+3AA+6AK)=10 combinations,
rest hands: 6QQ 6JJ, 12 combinations
to be more conservative, AQs might be in his range, so another 3AQs
then, the odds that is related to this flop is only a little bit more than 50%
There are possibilities that he raise with TT or even it was a light 3-bet bluff. So, here, it is good chance that his hand that cannot continue with this flop.
So, I bet half pot to bluff, I only need 33% of time to success to balance my cost, and the chance he will fold according to the above analysis is way more than 33%, so the best play here is to bluff.
A's K's is definitely in my calling range, so my bet here is really plausible.
Last edited by skyboy1991; 07-08-2017 at 10:28 PM.
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 856
I think its less likely that he has jj or AQs but yeah it still works out the same, I like the bluff. I can't think of an overall strategy for you in this spot but I think AA wants to lead here to get max value from kx. Alot of people will check their value here even IP. Still profitable bluff though vs most regs imo.