(Anyone help me to move this to Micros Stakes NL? Did not notice that here is Full Ring, sorry, I am new here.)

Hello guys, I just want to share a hand I played at ignition zone poker 6max NL25, and tell my thinking process here.


I forgot some details, just a rough description here,

MP around 25$, raise to 0.75$
Button around 40$ raise to 2.25$
SB(me) around 45$ call 2.25 with 55

Here, I flat called this 3-bet pot planning to hit the set, because the imply odds are good, Button and me are both deep.

MP folds.

flop A K K rainbow

I thought for a while, and decide this is a good chance to bluff, so I bet a little bit more than half pot.

I bet around 3$, Button fold.

Reason I decide to bluff:
Suppose Button was not 3-bet bluffing, then his range should be JJ+ AK, generally.

now the flop has one A and two Ks, then his hand had at least one A or K reduced to: (1KK+3AA+6AK)=10 combinations,
rest hands: 6QQ 6JJ, 12 combinations
to be more conservative, AQs might be in his range, so another 3AQs
then, the odds that is related to this flop is only a little bit more than 50%

There are possibilities that he raise with TT or even it was a light 3-bet bluff. So, here, it is good chance that his hand that cannot continue with this flop.

So, I bet half pot to bluff, I only need 33% of time to success to balance my cost, and the chance he will fold according to the above analysis is way more than 33%, so the best play here is to bluff.

A's K's is definitely in my calling range, so my bet here is really plausible.

I think its less likely that he has jj or AQs but yeah it still works out the same, I like the bluff. I can't think of an overall strategy for you in this spot but I think AA wants to lead here to get max value from kx. Alot of people will check their value here even IP. Still profitable bluff though vs most regs imo.