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Old 05-21-2017, 03:59 AM   #1
krikara
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Folding a Q high flush draw 3 way?

Oops I worded the title wrong. It should be folding a Q high flush 3 way**

    Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37730340

    BTN: $11.21 (224.2 bb)
    SB: $4.71 (94.2 bb)
    BB: $18.25 (365 bb)
    UTG+1: $6.40 (128 bb)
    UTG+2: $5.96 (119.2 bb)
    MP1: $6.79 (135.8 bb)
    Hero (MP2): $9.58 (191.6 bb)
    MP3: $8.36 (167.2 bb)
    CO: $5.99 (119.8 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q T
    3 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, MP3 calls $0.15, CO folds, BTN calls $0.15, 2 folds

    Flop: ($0.52) 3 2 J (3 players)
    Hero checks, MP3 checks, BTN bets $0.27, Hero calls $0.27, MP3 calls $0.27

    Turn: ($1.33) 9 (3 players)
    Hero checks, MP3 checks, BTN checks

    River: ($1.33) 5 (3 players)
    Hero checks, MP3 bets $0.50, BTN raises to $1.46, Hero calls $1.46, MP3 folds

    Spoiler:



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    Is this a fold here and do you personally fold here?

    As played, both the HJ villain and the button villain could have nut flushes on the river. All of us have 150+ bb, so I'm guessing everyone is rather competent.

    When I called, I felt like there was a slight chance HJ was going for a steal. Then the button could raise him with value hands less than a Q+ flush or even a set and then fold to bigger raises. He could also attempt a resteal here. With these 2 things in mind, I ultimately decided to call however maybe it's not the right move.

    I feel like even if the button suspected the HJ was stealing and decided to resteal or value raise with a worse flush than mine, HJ could still have a better hand.

    If the pot was bigger, I am definitely folding here. Since it was so small, I talked myself into a call I also wanted to see what he had.
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    Old 05-21-2017, 06:41 AM   #2
    pokerforumposter
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    Re: Folding a Q high flush draw 3 way?

    Fold because much more combos of higher flushes vs the maybe 2-3 combos of lower (thanks to the board). BTN is not likely to play a set this way (passive until river) unless it is 55, even then it would be pretty stupid because both you and MP have lots of flushes. Finally, nobody ever bluff raises river like this multiway. You are about 2-1 here as well so you really do not want to call unless you clearly have a better hand a large portion of the time.
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    Old 05-21-2017, 08:20 AM   #3
    krikara
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    Re: Folding a Q high flush draw 3 way?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pokerforumposter View Post
    Fold because much more combos of higher flushes vs the maybe 2-3 combos of lower (thanks to the board). BTN is not likely to play a set this way (passive until river) unless it is 55, even then it would be pretty stupid because both you and MP have lots of flushes. Finally, nobody ever bluff raises river like this multiway. You are about 2-1 here as well so you really do not want to call unless you clearly have a better hand a large portion of the time.
    Hmm I'd agree that most sets like this would be 55 or the unlikely 99, and even then it might be a bluff raise or thin value. But I don't think you can say no one ever bluff raises the river. The pot is relatively small and the HJ lead was about 1/3 pot.

    From the button perspective, you would expect the MP guy to bet his flushes so he's either weak or majorly under repping his hand. Then the HJ guy could be attempting a steal here, which he was. As long as you have the Ace of clubs and block the nut flush draw, a bluff raise seems entirely viable.
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    Old 05-21-2017, 11:51 AM   #4
    pokerforumposter
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    Re: Folding a Q high flush draw 3 way?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by krikara View Post
    Hmm I'd agree that most sets like this would be 55 or the unlikely 99, and even then it might be a bluff raise or thin value. But I don't think you can say no one ever bluff raises the river. The pot is relatively small and the HJ lead was about 1/3 pot.

    From the button perspective, you would expect the MP guy to bet his flushes so he's either weak or majorly under repping his hand. Then the HJ guy could be attempting a steal here, which he was. As long as you have the Ace of clubs and block the nut flush draw, a bluff raise seems entirely viable.
    BTN has to assume that MP thinks that you checking means you are weak, and that MP is the type to do something about it, which is a pretty hefty assumption to make about a player. Then BTN has to have the Ace of clubs. Then BTN has to be the type of player to bluff like this consistently, or he has to randomly feel like doing this at this moment. Add all that up and whatever other weak assumptions you are making and you have about 1% chance of him bluffing, and 99% chance of btn deciding he wants to bet the nuts.
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    Old 05-21-2017, 12:25 PM   #5
    krikara
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    Re: Folding a Q high flush draw 3 way?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pokerforumposter View Post
    BTN has to assume that MP thinks that you checking means you are weak, and that MP is the type to do something about it, which is a pretty hefty assumption to make about a player. Then BTN has to have the Ace of clubs. Then BTN has to be the type of player to bluff like this consistently, or he has to randomly feel like doing this at this moment. Add all that up and whatever other weak assumptions you are making and you have about 1% chance of him bluffing, and 99% chance of btn deciding he wants to bet the nuts.
    MP has an under repped hand and considering everyone checked the turn, MP with flushes as generally betting here.

    I do agree that the button should have the Ace of clubs here to bluff, but where are you getting this 1% number from? You can't just assume every villain is going to play the way you do. People who bluff 1% of the time on these type of run outs are way too unbalanced and easily exploitable.
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    Old 05-21-2017, 01:35 PM   #6
    pokerforumposter
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    Re: Folding a Q high flush draw 3 way?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by krikara View Post
    MP has an under repped hand and considering everyone checked the turn, MP with flushes as generally betting here.

    I do agree that the button should have the Ace of clubs here to bluff, but where are you getting this 1% number from? You can't just assume every villain is going to play the way you do. People who bluff 1% of the time on these type of run outs are way too unbalanced and easily exploitable.
    I'm just saying that its not the 5nl standard to bluff raise river here and you have to make way too many iffy assumptions to make this call, instead of correctly applying standard solid logic that is the bread and butter of poker. If you have a very strong reason to believe people do this, e.g. if you've seen almost the exact same spot several times before or you have an extremely good understanding of your opponents game, then you can consider calling. I'm not saying there is no logic to the play, I'm saying why you can't call.
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    Old 05-21-2017, 03:37 PM   #7
    krikara
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    Re: Folding a Q high flush draw 3 way?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pokerforumposter View Post
    I'm just saying that its not the 5nl standard to bluff raise river here and you have to make way too many iffy assumptions to make this call, instead of correctly applying standard solid logic that is the bread and butter of poker. If you have a very strong reason to believe people do this, e.g. if you've seen almost the exact same spot several times before or you have an extremely good understanding of your opponents game, then you can consider calling. I'm not saying there is no logic to the play, I'm saying why you can't call.
    I'm not really making any assumptions at all. Me under repping my hand is a fact. People bluffing more than 1% of the time is also a fact. The exact number I dont know, but it's definitely more than 1 out of every 100 times.

    Also, what about all the other flushes that the button can be raising for value? He should be raising any flush for value here, including weaker ones than the Q high flush.

    You can still beat value raises here, just not against the K and A flush. Unless you're saying you plan on flatting the 1/3 pot bet from the HJ villain if you in the Button's spot with any <Q high flush.

    I dont think this is a clear cut fold as you make it out to be.
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    Old 05-21-2017, 05:19 PM   #8
    pokerforumposter
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    Re: Folding a Q high flush draw 3 way?

    He shouldn't be raising small flushes here for value because only an absolute station would call. Even if he was you would be break even on a call vs his range because there are almost twice as many flushes that beat you, and you are getting 2-1.
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    Old 05-22-2017, 02:58 AM   #9
    krikara
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    Re: Folding a Q high flush draw 3 way?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pokerforumposter View Post
    He shouldn't be raising small flushes here for value because only an absolute station would call. Even if he was you would be break even on a call vs his range because there are almost twice as many flushes that beat you, and you are getting 2-1.
    You need to learn the concept of balancing. If you're only raising the nuts here, you will be too exploitable. People will know you're only raising the nuts.

    You don't have to be an absolute station to call in the MP position. Pot size and bet sizing matter. Calling a 10bb bet on the river with a flush seems very underwhelming, especially when the best possible hand to be had is a flush, so the button should be raising most flushes here.

    The problem with your argument is that you're determining the button's raise range based on how you would play it. We can break everything down if you want to. Just because you're never bluffing or value raising flushes that aren't the nut flush doesn't mean other people won't. When facing a 10bb bet in position on the button with a flush, a lot of people are raising in this spot for value. Card removal also comes into play here. Because you have a flush, that means it is a lot harder for your opponents to have a flush as well.

    You're assuming way too much about the villain. You don't really know that he is raising twice as many hands that will beat me versus ones that don't.
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    Old 05-22-2017, 08:11 AM   #10
    vrbik
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    Re: Folding a Q high flush draw 3 way?

    why you take this line?
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    Old 05-22-2017, 09:20 AM   #11
    krikara
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    Re: Folding a Q high flush draw 3 way?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by vrbik View Post
    why you take this line?
    I felt like in this spot versus these opponents, I would get more value by checking to them. Having the flush means they are less likely to have a flush and I don't think that many worse hands are calling me here (aside from the smaller flushes which I didn't think they have many of). My thought process was to allow one of them to bluff at the river or value bet worse hands.
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    Old 05-25-2017, 03:24 AM   #12
    TDB
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    Re: Folding a Q high flush draw 3 way?

    3way hand. Cbet flop. Cbet turn, you have straight/flush draw! BTN folds, the pot is yours. Or you can get a straight on river.

    This hand needs your flop and turn Cbet!
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    Old 05-25-2017, 06:58 AM   #13
    vrbik
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    Re: Folding a Q high flush draw 3 way?

    I like cbet otf cbet ott more actualy.. Our hand is strong, so why not to get value? but I like your comments and thinking process btw..
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    Old 05-26-2017, 12:51 AM   #14
    Nxia
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    Re: Folding a Q high flush draw 3 way?

    The problem with calling is the fact everyone checked the turn. It makes the J high and 9 high flush less likely.

    The problem with folding is that you really don't have that many better hands in your range that can call this bet given the way the hand played out, namely KQ, KJ, KT assuming you fire the river to make sure a bet goes in with the ace high flush.

    Its a tough spot but I'd probably tank call it off.

    BTW I don't mind the turn check for balancing purposes. You have a super strong draw that you can check call with and if you alwayss semi bluff these you'll not have flushes or straights on river when you check call
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    Old 05-28-2017, 02:07 PM   #15
    SaberTJ
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    Re: Folding a Q high flush draw 3 way?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TDB View Post
    3way hand. Cbet flop. Cbet turn, you have straight/flush draw! BTN folds, the pot is yours. Or you can get a straight on river.

    This hand needs your flop and turn Cbet!
    This
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    Old 05-29-2017, 10:29 PM   #16
    redlineftw
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    Re: Folding a Q high flush draw 3 way?

    I can say with almost 100% certainty that Snowie would be flagging turn play as an error telling you to bet 50% pot..
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    Old 05-30-2017, 07:16 AM   #17
    micro dong
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    Re: Folding a Q high flush draw 3 way?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pokerforumposter View Post
    Finally, nobody ever bluff raises river like this multiway.
    That's why it's the best time to do it.
    Could have A4 also.
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    Old 05-30-2017, 07:41 PM   #18
    micro dong
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    Re: Folding a Q high flush draw 3 way?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pokerforumposter View Post
    Fold because much more combos of higher flushes vs the maybe 2-3 combos of lower (thanks to the board).
    I expect to see sometimes J9cc 98cc 97cc 87cc 86cc 64cc A4hh A4ss A4dd.
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