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do i bet river? do i bet river?

08-07-2017 , 03:02 AM
I check behind but I'm wodering if there was any value to capture betting. In hindsight I figure the only thing that could call was better, but is that wrong?

(sorry for formate, handconverter doesn't work for some reason)

PLAYERS:
Position
Name
Stack
BTN

$2 (100 bb)
SB

$2.52 (126 bb)
BB

$1.90 (95 bb)
UTG+1

$2.45 (122.5 bb)
UTG+2

$2 (100 bb)
MP1

$3.64 (182 bb)
MP2

$2.86 (143 bb)
MP3
Hero
$1.98 (99 bb)
CO

$2.03 (101.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Jc Jh
UTG+1 raises to $0.07, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.22, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.47) Td Qc 8c (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.47) Ts (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

River: ($1.07) 8h (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
do i bet river? Quote
08-07-2017 , 07:49 AM
Whether you can profitably value bet on the flop depends on what villain's 3bet-flatting range is like. This is when you really need to know something about your villain. For some tighter players their OOP range will be (22-JJ, AK}. For others though you can expand that to be something like {22-JJ, AJo+, A8s+, KJo+, K10s+, suited connectors 67s+}.

After you consider that you need to consider how much of those hands will he call a flop c-bet with?

All of the Qx hands are now ahead of you. 1010 and 88 have you crushed. In contrast there are a lot of potential drawing hands out there as the board is very connected and there's also a potential flush out there. It's a matter of making this kind of assessment when weighing up whether you can profitably value bet or not.

As played. By the time you get to the river all of the draws have missed. That takes out a large section of hands you could have gotten value from. Add to that the lower pairs have now made trips. I don't think there's much he can call you with that you're beating (if he's sitting there with 99 that board looks just as scary to him) so I think checking behind is ok.
do i bet river? Quote
08-07-2017 , 02:44 PM
If he's a tag/lag player then he's either slow played the flop with a check or decided that the flop texture is too wet to bluff/semi bluff cbet and get it through. After the check on the turn I'd think that he's missed. You have very good show down value but yes you are struggling to get called by much your beating.

To eek out as much value as possible it might be worth a small thin value bet/f line, you're hand is under represented. He might think 99 or AK could be good a % of the time. Unless you have info on V's a non believer and pays of river bets too much. There's another reason I'd consider betting here is to save him gaining showdown info.


I don't think it's going to make a big difference either way though. I'd certainly say that you can't put in a big value bet in and expect to be called by worse.

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Last edited by Gabe16; 08-07-2017 at 02:53 PM.
do i bet river? Quote

      
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