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Q9o - No [Soo much Ax, Jx, can be c/r'ed off hand
K3o - Possibly, give that to you
AKo - wtf
22 - wtf
KJo - The point of the hand was missed value so yes

K3 can definitely be argued. Q9 is too thin unless we have reads.

Q9 hand I bet $5 on the river
K3, against a normal/decent opponnent I am reraising the flop, against a drooler hand is fine

AK hand is a raise/shove on the flop 100% of the time. In a non 3bet hand, its bet flop, bet turn.

22 hand, bet the flop

as far as the discussion of SDV vs Thin Value, it really comes down to BOARD strength more than holding value. Taking the board strength and if you can weave it in with the villains range and your range based on the position and betting action then you will add signficantly to your win rate.

Another thing to think about, is that SDV vs Thin Value can flip flop during the hand. On strong drawing boards you may feel comfortable getting big value from an underpair, but on the river, you will gladly take your SDV. Contrastly with medium hands on dry boards, you may not be able to get thin value on all three streets, but can easily collect a nice size bet on the river.

I had a sweat session a few months ago, where these two hands came up almost back to back and the student was confused by my thought. Basically in the first hand I had Q9 in the BB in a BvB and collected 3 big bets on a wet board with 3rd pair. The next hand I iso an unkown with 22 who limp called me, Flop comes 742r. He c/c the flop, and said no value in betting the J turn, and then called his 1/2PSB on the river.

I can think of plenty of times when i've seen passive villians [and 19/0 is prolly going to turn out passive] double check A7 or QJ in similar spots. I'd expect 88- to fold nearly all the time and for him to have about zero 9x.

I'm tired but if i read that 22 hand of yours correctly then wtf @ turn check behind and river flat call.

He only has two things in the 22 hand, weak one pair type looking for cheap showdown or a set

I misread the action and I agree that 22 is a bet on the flop. I thought we raised preflop and were called by a player IP. That board hits a lot of our flat calling range and the villain is likely c/f a lot if we bet.

Agreed K3 raise is okay against a better player because we rep narrow by raising, so they will call lighter.

AK - given the dynamic, I don't mind raise/shoving - it's not exactly for value, more of a semi-bluff IMO. Personally, I'm 4betting preflop with the dynamic given.

Q9 - very thin imo, but we may get a call from UP. I'd like it better if there wasn't an A.

nice post gadalparah!

wats everyone opinion when we have some pp in position (99) on K47 flop. we have showdown value, most of the time only better hands call.

but if worst hands will only put money in the pot when they improve, arnt we making a mistake by not betting?

minraise the river imo

just a few weeks ago i was looking for a good post on SDV......very nice post...thanks

skimmed thru will read in detail later. gj gadol

What if we have SDV hand but we are OOP? c/c line?

The concept of SDV applies just as much to being OOP as IP, its just much more difficult to get to showdown. It goes without saying that our holding is fairly weak (since we think theres no value to be had from it) so we can c/c one street, maybe 2, almost never 3 except vs aggrotards or to pick off bluffs. So to efficiently play this part of our range OOP, we need to be able to know when to release, bluff catch, or turn our own hand into a bluff. A little more difficult, huh?

Re: Hand 4

I think it is an illusion to believe that you have 'fat value'. It is more accurate to say that you almost always have the best hand at the river - thats true.
A value bet is where you have the expectation of being called by more worse hands than better hands.
A fat value bet is where you not only have the expectation that more worse hands will call but that the difference between number of worse hands and better hands is actually quite large.

So, of course we have to go back to ranges - now it might be true that villian would have bet almost every single better hand on one of the streets. Which is why we believe that we almost always have the best hand.
But it is important to recognise that when an aggressive regular checks all 3 sts on AKxxT with the way the board develop - we should be able to deduce that its very likely villians range is either a 3 bet Air that for some reason - usually a read on your 3bet calling range or tendencies to not c-bet this flop - OR it is hands with some sort of showdown value himself.
Accompanying that fact is that when you check behind both flop and turn - is usuallly
(a) some sort of SDV - PPs Kx
(b) Air that does not want to barrell him off his holding
(c) A very strong hand that bets the street it improves.

Now when you couple the two things together and you work of some assumptions like that villian and Hero may be able to do some basic hand ranging - you find that in fact when you get to this river with face up ranges that his calling frequency of PPs is actually going to be quite low - mainly because you probably would have bluffed Air either PF - flop or turn and in fact not the river.
Which leads me to believe that in fact it is more a thin value/ freerolling bet rather than 'fat value' - and if anything the example would be best used for this topic - if you were to switch your KJ to in fact 44 - where you would have illusory SDV and should turn your hand into a bluff.

(p.s. - I think that you should have bet either the flop or the turn with Kx)

bump to prevent COTW from being archived

good stuff