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COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers

09-10-2013 , 09:49 AM
Hello 2+2. I'm Peter, and I'm a 20 year old student who has been playing online poker for about 2 years. You can read more about me and follow my progress in my PG&C thread.

This Concept of the Week article is about adjusting to stack sizes, particularly the 40bb shortstackers who infest the games on almost every site. It is focused on helping 100bb players play against these players. The main concepts are in 2 short videos, one covering preflop play and the other postflop play. In this post I have included additional calculations, comments, and exercises/examples.

Table of Contents (Click on the time to start the video at that section)
1. Preflop
1.1. Bet Sizing 1:04
1.2. Shoving 3:37
1.3. Multiple 4Bet Sizings 9:12

2. Postflop
2.1. Frequencies 0:22
2.2. How Many Streets 1:45
2.3. Planning On The Flop 4:53





1. Preflop
1.1. Bet Sizing
1.1.1. Hero (100bb) opens to 3bb in the CO. BTN (100bb) calls. SB (40bb) 3bets to 10bb. If we were to 4bet, what size do we make it?
Spoiler:
Minraise to 17bb.


There are exceptions to the general rule of not putting in more than a third of effective stacks preflop. Two examples of that are when we want to give the opponent a chance to call with a weak hand or spew, or when the opponent folds too much to small reraises and a small reraise is immediately profitable.

1.1.2. Hero (100bb) opens to 3bb in the BTN with AA. SB (40bb) 3bets to 9bb. What size does hero 4bet to?
Spoiler:
Minraise to 15bb. There is a higher chance that SB will put in more money when we make a small 4bet and this is good for us when we have a strong hand that is not vulnerable.


1.1.3. Hero (100bb) opens to 3bb in the BTN with 76o. SB (40bb) 3bets to 9bb. We look at the HUD and see that SB 3bets 20% and folds to 4bets 80% over a large sample. What do we do?
Spoiler:
Minraise to 15bb. We will immediately be profitable since SB 3bets too much and folds to too many 4bets.


1.2. Shoving
1.2.1. Hero opens to 3bb in the CO and a 40bb shortstacker 3bets to 8bb in the BTN. We have a hand with 35% equity against the opponent's calling range and we shove. How often do we need the opponent to fold for our shove to be profitable?
Spoiler:
The pot size is 8+3+1.5=12.5.
The effective remaining stack is 37.
Call the frequency that the opponent folds to a shove X.
When we win, the result is a profit 12.5, and this occurs X of the time. When we lose, we lose 37, but 35% of the time we get back the total pot of both stacks and the blinds which is 40+40+1.5=81.5, and this occurs 1-X of the time. So the equity of our shove is 12.5X+[-37+(35%)(81.5)](1-X).
For us to have a profitable shove, we need this to be greater than 0.
12.5X+[-37+(35%)(81.5)](1-X)>0
12.5X+[-37+28.525](1-X)>0
12.5X+[-8.475](1-X)>0
12.5X-8.475+8.475X>0
20.475X>8.475
X>0.414
So we need the opponent to fold more than 41.4% of the time for our shove to be profitable.


1.2.2. Shortstacker (40bb) opens to 2bb in the CO. Hero (100bb) 3bets to 6bb in the BTN. Shortstacker 4bets to 13bb. How often does shortstacker need to fold for us to shove a hand with 30% equity?
Spoiler:
31.8%
Spoiler:
20.5X+[-34+(30%)(81.5)](1-X)>0

From this example you can see how shortstackers must call a shove very often after putting in a large percentage of their stack.

1.2.3. Hero opens to 3bb in the CO. Shortstacker (50bb) 3bets to 8bb. How often does shortstacker need to fold for us to shove a hand with 30% equity?
Spoiler:
57%
Spoiler:
12.5X+[-47+(30%)(101.5)](1-X)>0


1.2.4. Hero opens to 3bb in the CO. Shortstacker (60bb) 3bets to 8bb. How often does shortstacker need to fold for us to shove a hand with 30% equity?
Spoiler:
62.2%
Spoiler:
12.5X+[-57+(30%)(121.5)](1-X)>0


From examples 1.2.3 and 1.2.4 notice how a small difference in stack size results in a significant increase in the amount of folds we need to be able to shove. Also notice that it is still reasonable to 4bet shove even as we get over 60bb deep.

1.3. Multiple 4Bet Sizings
1.3.1. Hero opens to 3bb in EP. Shortstacker (40bb) 3bets to 8bb in the BTN. What should hero do with QJs? 66? AKo? KQo?
Spoiler:
Fold QJs. Shove 66. Minraise AKo. Fold KQo.


1.3.2. Hero opens to 3bb in the CO. Shortstacker (40bb) 3bets to 8bb in the BTN. What should hero do with QJs? 66? AKo? KQo?
Spoiler:
Shove QJs. Shove 66. Minraise AKo. Call KQo



2. Postflop
2.1. Frequencies
2.1.1. 100bb deep. We open to 3bb. We bet 6bb into 7.5bb on the flop. We bet 16bb into 19.5bb on the turn. We shove 75bb into 51.5bb on the river with a polarized range. What percentage of the time does villain call? What percentage of villains range do we need to beat to be able to value bet? What percentage of the time do we bluff?
Spoiler:
We are risking 75bb to win 51.5bb. Assume the opponent folds X of the time. Our equity is 51.5X-75(1-X). For us to break even:
51.5X-75(1-X)=0
51.5X-75+75X=0
126.5X=75
X=0.593
So the opponent will fold 59.3% of the time to make our bluffs break even. So the opponent calls 100%-59.3%=40.7% of his range. We need to be ahead of half of this range, 20.35%, to be able to value bet.
Our opponent is risking 75bb to win the pot plus our bet of 51.5bb+75bb=126.5bb. Assume we bluff X percent of the time. His equity is 126.5X-75(1-X). For him to break even:
126.5X-75(1-X)=0
126.5X-75+75X=0
201.5X=75
X=0.372
So we will bluff 37.2% of the time to make the opponent's calls break even.


2.1.2. 40bb deep. We open to 3bb. We bet 4.5bb into 7.5bb on the flop. We bet 10bb into 16.5bb on the turn. We shove 22.5bb into 36.5bb on the river with a polarized range. What percentage of the time does villain call? What percentage of villains range do we need to beat to be able to value bet? What percentage of the time do we bluff?
Spoiler:
We are risking 22.5bb to win 36.5bb. Assume the opponent folds X of the time. Our equity is 36.5X-22.5(1-X). For us to break even:
36.5X-22.5(1-X)=0
36.5X-22.5+22.5X=0
59X=22.5
X=0.381
So the opponent will fold 38.1% of the time to make our bluffs break even. So the opponent calls 100%-38.1%=61.9% of his range.We need to be ahead of half of this range, 30.95%, to be able to value bet.
Our opponent is risking 22.5bb to win the pot plus our bet of 36.5bb+22.5bb=59bb. Assume we bluff X percent of the time. His equity is 59X-22.5(1-X). For him to break even:
59X-22.5(1-X)=0
59X-22.5+22.5X=0
81.5X=22.5
X=0.276
So we will bluff 27.6% of the time to make the opponent's calls break even.


As you can see from these two examples, when stacks are shallower, in general we will be betting smaller which means we will be value betting more hands and bluffing at a lower frequency.

2.2. How Many Streets
2.2.1. Assume in a heads up pot that the current pot size is P, and there are N streets of betting remaining and we want to bet an equal percentage of the pot on each street and get all in on the last street with final pot size S. What percentage of the pot do we bet?
Spoiler:
If we bet X of the pot, the pot size will increase by 1+2X. So over N streets of betting the pot will increase by (1+2X)^N which means the final pot size will be P*(1+2X)^N. So S=P*(1+2X)^N.
S/P=(1+2X)^N
(S/P)^(1/N)=1+2X
X=[(S/P)^(1/N)-1]/2


2.2.2. Hero (100bb) opens to 2bb in the BTN with 77. SB (40bb) calls. Flop is K74r. How many streets do we want to bet to get stacks in?
Spoiler:
3 streets because stacks are still deep, the board is dry, and our hand is not vulnerable. How big do we bet?
Spoiler:
The current pot size is 5bb and the final pot will be 81bb (both players' stacks plus the big blind). We need the pot to increase by 81/5=16.2 times. To have the pot increase by the same percentage on each of the 3 streets, we want the pot to increase by 16.2^(1/3)=2.53 times on each street. If we bet X of the pot, the pot will increase by 1+2X so we want 1+2X=2.53 so X=0.765. So we will bet 76.5% of the pot on 3 streets.


2.2.3. Hero (100bb) opens to 3bb in the CO with T9s. SB (40bb) 3bets to 8.5bb. Hero calls. Flop is T97 two-tone and we do not have a flush draw. How many streets do we want to bet to get stacks in?
Spoiler:
2 streets because stacks are shallow, the board is wet, and our hand is vulnerable. How big do we bet?
Spoiler:
The current pot size is 18bb and the final pot will be 81bb (both players' stacks plus the big blind). We need the pot to increase by 81/18=4.5 times. To have the pot increase by the same percentage on each of the 3 streets, we want the pot to increase by 4.5^(1/2)=2.12 times on each street. If we bet X of the pot, the pot will increase by 1+2X so we want 1+2X=2.12 so X=0.56. So we will bet 56% of the pot on two streets.


When we have a hand that is not strong enough to put all the money in with, we will usually want to bet the same size as the hands that do.
2.2.4. Hero (100bb) opens to 2bb in the BTN with TT. SB (40bb) calls. Flop is K74r. If we wish to bet for 1 street of value, what size do we bet?
Spoiler:
76.5% of the pot. (See hand 2.2.2.)


2.2.5. Hero (100bb) opens to 3bb in the CO with JT. SB (40bb) 3bets to 8.5bb. Hero calls. Flop is T97. If we wish to bet for 1 street of value, what size do we bet?
Spoiler:
56% of the pot. (See hand 2.2.3.)


2.3. Planning On The Flop
When we are in position, most of the time the opponent will check to us, and if we want to go for 3 streets of value, the easiest way to do this is by betting all 3 streets.

2.3.1. Hero (100bb) opens to 3bb in the CO with JTs. SB (40bb) calls. Flop is AKQr and SB checks. What does hero do?
Spoiler:
Bet 3 streets with a sizing that allows us to get all in on the river.


When we have a hand which we want to bet for 2 streets of value, we need to decide which street to check. When the board is dry or our hand is not vulnerable, we should consider checking the flop to allow the opponent a chance to lead out with a bluff on the turn. When the board is wet or our hand is vulnerable to the hands that will fold to a flop bet, we should consider checking the river. There are few cases where we will plan to bet the flop, check the turn, and bet the river, but the most common situation is on a wet board against an opponent who bluffs too much. There are fewer situations where we will plan to bet the flop, check the turn, and bet the river, but the most common situation is on a wet board against an opponent who bluffs too much.

2.3.2. Hero opens to 3bb in the CO with KQo. SB (40bb) calls. Flop is Q84r. What does hero do?
Spoiler:
Check flop with the intention of betting turn and river if the opponent checks the turn or calling if the opponent bets the turn and then either calling or betting the river.


2.3.3. Hero opens to 3bb in the CO with KQo. SB (40bb) calls. Flop is QT7 two-tone. What does hero do?
Spoiler:
Bet flop and turn and check river.


2.3.4. Hero opens to 3bb in the CO with T9s. SB (40bb) calls. Flop is 987 two-tone. What does hero do?
Spoiler:
Bet flop, check turn and call or bet river if the draws don't hit. We benefit from betting the flop because we make overcards fold and make many draws call. Once we check the turn, the opponent will likely bet the river often and his range will be very weak since he will raise the flop his strong hands on such a wet board.


When we are out of position, we will usually not want to bet the flop for value unless we can bet all 3 streets. This is because once we check a hand that isn't strong enough to bet 3 streets, the opponent will be able to bet into us and we will have trouble calling with our medium-strength hand. Often when we are 100bb deep, we will choose to check the flop with our very strong hands with the intention of check/raising a street because it is difficult to bet 3 streets and get stacks in. However, when we are 40bb deep, we will usually not have this problem, so we should consider donk betting since it will keep the opponent's range wider than if we check/raised.
However, before donk betting we must consider if the line makes sense. We want to donk bet on boards where we hit very hard with a considerable number of hands and can create a polarized range. Usually when we open raise, we will have most sets and overpairs in our range, but when we are the cold caller, we will often not have some of those hands in our range. This makes it difficult to create a donk betting range on some boards, and it may be better to check/call our strong hands on those boards.

2.3.5. CO (100bb) opens to 3bb. Hero (100bb) calls in SB with QJo. Flop is T98r. What does hero do?
Spoiler:
Check/call flop and turn and check/shove river. If villain ever checks back then we will bet the remaining streets.


2.3.6. CO (40bb) opens to 3bb. Hero (100bb) calls in SB with QJo. Flop is T98r. What does hero do?
Spoiler:
Bet 3 streets. We can have most combos of QJ, TT, 99, 88 as well as bluffs with a lot of equity (straight draw and 2 overcards) so we can create a polarized range.


2.3.7. CO (40bb) opens to 3bb. Hero (100bb) calls in SB with JTs. Flop is AKQr. What does hero do?
Spoiler:
Check/call 3 streets. We do not have AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ in our range while the opponent does so it is hard to create a polarized range to donk bet without making our checking range incredibly weak.


When we want to go for 1 or 2 streets of value, it is very similar to being in position and we want to check the earlier streets unless the board is wet or our hand is vulnerable to the hands that fold to a bet.

2.3.8. CO (40bb) opens to 3bb. Hero (100bb) calls in SB with KQo. Flop is Q84r. What does hero do?
Spoiler:
Check flop with the intention of betting turn and river if the opponent checks back or calling if the opponent bets and checking turn to call or bet the river if the opponent checks back the turn.


However, if we want to bet 2 streets to go all in, we can consider betting flop and turn since we do not worry about being bluffed off our hand. This will occur most often on wet boards or with vulnerable hands since otherwise we will often still want to check to let the opponent bluff.

2.3.9. CO (40bb) opens to 2.5bb. Hero (100bb) 3bets to 7bb in SB with KQo. Flop is QT9 two-tone. What does hero do?
Spoiler:
Bet flop and shove turn.


Deep stacked play left as an exercise for the reader. I'm exhausted fromwriting so much about playing against shortstackers. Who knew short stacking could be so difficult.

Thanks for reading


Spoiler:

Last edited by mpethybridge; 09-10-2013 at 03:47 PM. Reason: 2.3.7 CO stack changed to 40 as per OP
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-10-2013 , 09:54 AM
First!
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-10-2013 , 09:55 AM
When I first heard they were updating the COTW's for todays poker climate I was really excited.

Seeing this topic AND seeing your involvement, that has not changed.

Anxious to read this but just wanted to say Thank You for taking the time to do this for all of us at 2p2.
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-10-2013 , 10:15 AM
Well written and helpful.

Lots of thanks Mr. Pita.
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-10-2013 , 10:15 AM
Thanks. The work you and the others have put in to these COTW's is appreciated
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-10-2013 , 11:03 AM
Maybe better to edit this part, cba getting banned for a joke.

Nice work Pete.

Last edited by Mzbourg; 09-10-2013 at 11:23 AM.
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-10-2013 , 11:12 AM
ban^

nice post, gnna take some time to get through this
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-10-2013 , 11:15 AM
Thanks everyone, and please don't get banned Mzbourg.
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-10-2013 , 12:36 PM
Hey Pita, love the format for your COTW, well done. Really looking forward to going through in detail these next couple of days.
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-10-2013 , 12:49 PM
I also forgot to mention how much I liked that you included some videos to go along with the COTW.

This is a trend I would like to see repeated from others with their presentation of the topics at hand.

Of course, each person who submits their analysis still gets two thumbs up, video or no video :P
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-10-2013 , 01:47 PM
Nice work Peter! that's awesome that you would take the time to put all this together.

.. obv this will catch the eye of the ev gods and they will bless you with some run hotter than the sun imo

C.
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-10-2013 , 03:14 PM
Good work Pita Bread
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-10-2013 , 06:14 PM
Beauty Pita!!! perfect timing for myself. Thanks a lot for this!
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-10-2013 , 08:36 PM
nice post,lets kill shorts...
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-11-2013 , 07:28 AM
Nice work Peter, appreciate the effort. I like the video format.
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-12-2013 , 01:59 PM
If I may ask a question. You said about calling 3bet with suited connectors. Should we be doing with short stackers, we have very little odds when we hit or hit a draw. Or is it about looking for villain's who will fold when we reriase his cbet.

Thanks
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-14-2013 , 06:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaypatel33
If I may ask a question. You said about calling 3bet with suited connectors. Should we be doing with short stackers, we have very little odds when we hit or hit a draw. Or is it about looking for villain's who will fold when we reriase his cbet.

Thanks
When you open BTN and get 3bet you probably need to something other than fold with your bigger suited connectors or you'll be folding too much. You're probably going to be profitable calling 3 or 4bb more in position closing the action with a lot of hands.

In other positions you should probably be folding suited connectors to a 3bet most of the time.
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-16-2013 , 08:44 AM
ty awesome thread
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-17-2013 , 06:56 AM
Great work! Thanks a lot!
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-24-2013 , 01:59 PM
Great post!
Thanks
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
09-25-2013 , 05:37 PM
when i play against short stack i always want to get in knowing that they want to push so i only play good hands where i know i can call
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
10-02-2013 , 09:25 PM
Thank you for your work with this, looking forward to going through it in a little more depth in the coming days.
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
10-18-2013 , 10:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mzbourg
Maybe better to edit this part, cba getting banned for a joke.

Nice work Pete.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pitapita
Thanks everyone, and please don't get banned Mzbourg.

File that under 'That went well'.
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
10-19-2013 , 03:54 PM
Hey Pita, how do you play QQ agianst short stackers, not sure if we should put in under premiums (KK/AA) and minbet it, or is it a bit more vunerable and should be 4bet jammed.
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote
10-20-2013 , 02:33 AM
If it's close think about stack sizes, opponent tendencies (will he flat, does he bluff too much)
COTW - Playing Against Shortstackers Quote

      
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