Once one starts to take poker seriously, it is close to inevitable that the idea of one day playing for a living is considered. As someone who has made the transition from working a nine to five job in a professional field to playing poker professionally, I intend to use this Concept of the Week post to share some of the things that made that transition relatively smooth. Additionally, I'll be detailing a few of the common pitfalls awaiting those who want to "go pro". As a warning, this post is going to be long and shall be written from the perspective of someone who wants a "lower risk" approach with respect to being able to maintain their lifestyle, support a family, pay bills, etc. Consider it the nit's guide to going pro.
Part 1: Proving the Concept
The first step I would imagine everyone takes when considering a professional poker career is estimating just how much they could be earning. While it is both obvious and absolutely necessary that one has a projected income figure that is able to adequately support their needs, one can easily deceive themselves when coming up with this number. Leaving other issues aside, first and foremost when trying to come up with a projected income it is imperative that you
understand variance. The importance of this is twofold. First, you want to be confident in the winrate(s) you are using to estimate your income. Second, if hitting a stretch where you are in the bottom couple percentile of variance would cause significant harm to your life, you have a problem.
Someone could easily write an entire CotW on variance. Rather than go into it deeply and make this post even longer than it already will be, I'll leave you with this:
Variance is far more significant than the vast majority of poker players, including most folks on this forum, realize or want to accept.
Here is a good starting point for learning about variance:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...ariance-79592/
Part 2: Poker Isn't Like Other Jobs
Ok, you've read up on variance and have derived from your sample size a 95% confidence interval for your "true" winrate. Even if you happen to end up on the lower edge of said interval for awhile, you'll still be earning a ton more than your current income, and poker seems a lot more fun compared to your current job. Sweet. Here's a bunch more stuff to think about
:
(1) When you are considering hands per hour and time spent working as a poker player, this time is all actually spent working and requires a constant level of focus.
Personally, I spent a couple years working as a software developer after graduation. While I was at work for 8 to 9 hours daily, on average I likely spent around 3 hours per day completing actual work. Though I won't deny being a slacker, this trend was not at all uncommon among my coworkers. At many jobs, you will spend significant amounts of time socializing as well as performing activities unrelated to the job. It was while working at this job that I conducted the bulk of my poker related study, and worked towards learning and understanding fundamental concepts. Much of said time was spent lurking this very forum of 2p2.
The bottom line is that while you may currently be working a job which requires a far greater work ethic than my software engineering gig, it is somewhat unlikely that it will compare to poker if you intend to commit a similar number of hours to work. With poker, when you say you are going to play 4000 hands at 800 hands per hour, that equates to 5 hours of actual work. Additionally, this work requires a very high level of mental focus, unless you are shortstacking scum. Furthermore, keep in mind that you'll probably want to set aside time to study and work on your game. Not many conventional jobs have necessary homework.
(2) Mostly due to the effects of (1), poker will very likely become less enjoyable and severe burnout is a possibility.
Activities are always a lot more fun when they are optional. If you are suddenly playing a much higher volume and are forcing yourself to play at times you'd rather be doing something else, it is only natural that poker is going to start to feel a lot more like a job and less like a fun game. By going pro you are going to be losing a hobby that you probably quite enjoy. The good news is this may free up a lot of time for you to pursue new hobbies (this was actually a big reason I went pro). Unfortunately, it may also lead to you feeling burnt out, and not wanting to play another hand ever. Your focus and winrate may suffer.
I recommend doing two things to combat burnout. The first is very simple. Look at the big picture. You're playing a game for a living and (hopefully) making a very competitive income. The second is to spend more time studying and less time playing. Learn a different style, or a different game entirely. Try to once again find the things that made poker so enjoyable in the first place that you wanted to pursue it as a job.
(3) Be mindful of physical consequences.
I suppose poker is actually like many jobs in this regard. I'm not going go into much detail here, but take care to prevent repetitive stress syndrome in your mouse hand, make sure you're getting adequate exercise, etc. etc.
(4) Lots of freedom isn't necessarily a positive.
Playing poker professionally is going to give you a great deal of freedom when compared to almost any other job. People will typically view this as a major positive, but said freedom can be very dangerous should a person lack
self control. Think about what kind of personality type you are and if you'll be able to handle the degree of freedom poker offers.
(5) No more benefits.
Pokerstars isn't going to be looking out for you or your family when you need surgery (well, you could probably concierge it and Stars support would likely send you an awesome get well card if they knew about it, but I'm fairly confident they aren't going to pay for it out of their own pocket).
(6) Know your tax law.
In some countries, poker income is non-taxable. In others it is a bit of a gray area (or in Canada's case a not so gray area that is treated as gray anyway because people get away with it). In the United States, you'll be stuck paying your taxes just as if you were working at Best Buy. Make sure you understand the tax law that applies to your country of residence.
Part 3: Consider the Big Picture, and the Opportunity Costs Associated With Going Pro
Even if playing poker professionally presents the opportunity to earn a lot more money in the short term (and potentially have quite a bit more freedom while doing so) when compared with schooling or getting started in a career, the long term opportunity cost may actually be surprising. Career paths almost uniformly pay the most to those with the most experience, and sacrificing years at a time for short term gain may cost one the most profitable years of their future career's eventual lifespan. Having an education is beneficial for a plethora of reasons, but I won't go into any more detail other than to highly recommend against dropping out of school to play poker professionally. You can likely find plenty of time to grind while pursuing an education if you put your mind to it.
It is very difficult to say exactly how viable playing poker for a living is going to be in five years, and probably next to impossible to tell if it will even be possible in twenty. While many career paths run the risk of becoming out of date or suffering from a decrease in demand, few are likely to match the volatility of poker.
Conversely, the potential short term accelerated income from playing poker professionally can allow one the opportunity to invest and obtain assets much more quickly compared to other career paths. This can result in
avoiding a lot of debt during one's younger years, which then can yield exponential gains later on down the line provided smart money management is observed. Imagine never having to work another day in your life unless you choose to, just because you put in a lot of effort playing a game for a few years? Such success is definitely a possibility.
Part 4: Upside
In this post up to now it probably seems like I've given you a lot of reasons not to play poker professionally, and not paid enough attention to the upside. While there is certainly significant risk and downside that must be considered, it would be silly not to review the positives. Below are the first few that come to mind:
(1) High potential income in the short term, especially compared to typical salaries for those getting started in a career. Might be tax free depending on your country of residence.
(2) Freedom, and lots of it. No commute, no boss, no set hours. You answer to yourself.
(3) Poker is a game, and it can be very enjoyable. Work on keeping it that way.
(4) Travel opportunities. Poker is played in many exotic locations that a professional can often find a tax deductible excuse to visit.
(5) Having a very uncommon job is pretty cool, even if you will get a wide range of reactions to the statement that you are a professional poker player.
Part 5: Conclusion
The bottom line I suppose is that it all boils down to
risk versus reward, just like a poker hand. Nobody can tell you if pursuing poker as a career is right for you. It certainly comes with a higher risk when compared to most career paths, but also offers very impressive potential rewards, especially in the short term. Do your homework, be prepared, and if you believe it will make you happy good luck in your attempt to live the dream. I certainly don't regret my choice yet, but who knows what the future will bring.