This hand was played as my last hand of the evening at around 2am. Villian had just won $3k in a tourney. She was a regular and had a strong table image. It is the most loose table as preflop will show, which is why I even consider playing the hand

Preflop

8 handed
EP raise to $10
Hero MP call the $10 with K10o
Button calls
SB calls
Villian(BB) raise to $20 (wtf)
All call for a pot around $100

Flop= K 3 4 rainbow
Checks to villian, who raises $30
Hero calls
All others fold

Turn is a 3 rainbow

Both players check checks

River is an 8
Villian checks
Hero bets $55 into ~$165 pot
Villian reraises to $115
Hero makes stupid call
Villian says "nice call" and shows 66.

There's alot that could be change in this by folding preflop which normally may be considered but you can tell my the line that people were playing with random **** and called most anything. My reasoning was that if I hit, I'm getting called, so play very loose. I'm more interested in the reraise. I am nervous of a better K kicker there or a fullhouse. I am not worried about a 3.
The checked turn makes her seem weak but can you make that fold there?

Sup waffles, I can give you my thoughts on this hand but I may not have the best advice.

There's going to be a lot of people that would disagree with your preflop call, and in most situations I'd disagree as well. However, with the table dynamics as they are, I don't mind taking a flop and seeing what develops. I think I would take a hand with a bit more equity, like KTs to make the call, but KTo is still okay.

I see a lot of strange preflop plays at the 1/2 tables, (I've been playing those stakes for the past two months). The $20 minraise is actually extremely common, as I've encountered. People don't tend to raise to get people out of the pot or as a bluff, they just blindly do it if they like their hand, which happens to be the case here. Online, I would worry a lot about the minraise meaning significant strength, but people are just so oblivious to sizings in live games, so it really doesn't mean much. Sorry for the rant there.

Anyways, the flop call and the turn check are both totally standard plays, so nothing to worry about there. Once you see the villain check the turn, it is really open to interpretation. This check can mean she turned the stone nuts, is giving up, or has marginal showdown value.

On the river, when she checks to you she is VERY unlikely to have the goods. Especially considering you checked back the turn. In my opinion, this is the perfect bet size by you for this situation. She will occasionally have KJ but is much more likely to have 99-QQ.

You really shouldn't be worried about a better kicker on this river, I think KJ-AK would almost always bet the river after you check back the turn. There's really no reason for them to bloat the pot with one pair, but some people do tend to overvalue AK.

The hands she is repping with her checkraise on the river are 33, 44, 88, KK, maybe AK and that's about it. Maybe she has some weird 34s that decided to raise pre, but I think that's extremely unlikely as played. Just think how you would have played those hands in her shoes.

Personally I don't think your river call is stupid at all, I would have played the hand the exact same if I decided to flat the raise with KT.

NH and hope this helps

The min-raise is going to be a low pocket pair super often — that's what I'd assigned before I saw the outcome. It's a play I see a lot and also one I make a fair bit of the time, although I'd size it a bit bigger than that to keep my range wide.

You haven't told us about stack depth, which is super important, but it's probable you're playing deeper than 100bbs, otherwise she's giving herself a worse price to play (although still immediate odds to draw to a set, and a great spot tbh with so many callers.)

If stacks are deeper than that, she's basically guaranteeing herself that she's going to felt someone if she hits a set. If she doesn't raise it's quite easy for people to ditch top pair weak kicker-type hands or two-pair type hands because the SPR is greater and because they've only committed a 1/20th or less of their stack to the pot pre.

Also she's giving hands like suited connectors worse odds to draw and continue on connected boards — say the board comes down 6 8 9 two-tone, she will want to be able to ship this board by the time the turn comes out, rather than not getting the money in when the villain folds river having missed their draw. People can draw to straights and flushes less profitably when playing less deep, etc., and she has a hand that will rarely if every make a straight or a flush.

It makes a lot of sense to make this raise with a small PP but it's also very transparent; I would be able to limit 80% of her range to a small number of PPs. I don't think we're even min-raising 2s and 3s here like this a lot of the time and we're raising larger with 9s, as we want to play 9s in a pot with fewer people, if the unlikely 8-high flop comes down (less than 20% of the time), and we'll be able to donk bet single-high-card boards (K, Q, J) more effectively against at most 2 other players having repped a stronger range with a larger raise pre. Sometimes we'll even take it down when we squeeze and a medium-range PP is a good candidate to do it, if we're playing deep — the value is from getting folds but it's easy to get away from bad boards that come down higher than a 9 and in this limped pot all but the first bettor will never have a higher PP. If they do, they will 4b most of the time.

You'll find also that large pocket pairs are going to squeeze to 120-140 here or larger from BB and big suited cards will likely do the same, so in fact her range here is limited to pocket pairs a vast majority of the time. It's not so WTF but it is transparent.

Looking at the flop action and in particular the bet sizing, how many Kx hands are min-raising pre and betting small OTF. The only ones are KQs (unlikely) and AKs. With AK, which we've already established is unlikely due to a min-raise, she's going to either be checking, unafraid of another card coming off, or check-raising this board. If she bets, it'd most likely be 1/2 to 2/3 the size of the pot and she's never checking a blank turn.

I don't think a competent player will ever lead with TPTK second to act here on such a dry board — they'll let someone else take initiative and be quite unafraid of a fourth card peeling. Really seems like she's testing the waters with a middling pocket pair. The bet doesn't make any sense. Then, when she checks back turn, you can be certain here that you're ahead with a king the vast majority of the time — the play doesn't make sense for any combos of non-PP hands I can think of.

I don't think the call OTR is bad — you're getting a great price here and her line makes no sense. (Obviously don't make the habit of playing K10 as a single pair hand though, as it's a big leak). I think her min-raise on the river is pretty dreadful to be honest. She'd be much better off leading river for the same sizing or overbetting it to fold out weak Kx. I like an overbet here if I'm villain, you've a really capped range here of weak Kx hands, middle/bottom pairs (such as 45) or a slow-played bottom-two OTF, or missed draws. Against a weaker, more passive player, I think an overbet will work enough of the time to be profitable, particularly having min-raised pre and already got alarm bells ringing.

Bet small on the turn like 40ish. People dont fold live, if she has anything resembling a hand to call with she probably will.